My trades

[jeffalvinson]

OI, its appears we were correct about the investors who bought the January high wanting to bail out at break even.

[SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 20 day moving average]

 

[jeffalvinson]

There's your theory this morning Jeff, which includes some geopolitical news. But investors buying at the highs in January are just relieved to be out now. I took a hit on GOOGL 1270 calls to the tune of -4800, and my tsla calls are still in play but at -5184. The only good thing going this morning was selling those TTD Aug 100 calls for a gain of +7280. I also closed out of JPM 115 calls taking a loss of -730 and also closed out the rest of AMZN with the entire AMZN position gaining +7900.

I'm unloading a lot too, and I'm just down to 3 big positions (tsla, nvda, and ual calls).

Have you ever tried buying low priced insurance policies (OTM puts) on those large calls positions?
For example: Lets say when you buy Google calls, at the same time buy some "cheap Out the Money" Google puts that only cost a fraction of what the calls cost (no where near the equal dollar value of the calls, and not like a true straddle or strangle).
The idea being, to just off-set losing trades a bit.
True, the small cost of the puts would cut into your winning call trades a bit, but it would also
reduce the overall effect on losing trades.

I mention this only because in the 1990's, I traded earnings plays that way.

 

[optionsinvestor]

Have you ever tried buying low priced insurance policies (OTM puts) on those large calls positions?
For example: Lets say when you buy Google calls, at the same time buy some "cheap Out the Money" Google puts that only cost a fraction of what the calls cost (no where near the equal dollar value of the calls, and not like a true straddle or strangle).
The idea being, to just off-set losing trades a bit.
True, the small cost of the puts would cut into your winning call trades a bit, but it would also
reduce the overall effect on losing trades.

I mention this only because in the 1990's, I traded earnings plays that way.

I'm going to have to test that, hedging my positions in such a way. I actually did that on TSLA with the 360 puts against my 370 calls, but have not thought about using them on momentum trades like GOOGL and AMZN. After everything have settled, things do look a bit better and I'm up +2500 for the day so far and that includes an unrealized loss of -7500 on my remaining open positions.

 

[optionsinvestor]

Got out of today much better than it looked. I was able to close out GOOGL calls for -4800, but I jumped out way too soon on TTD. Missed the entire move to $130. My current positions have held at the morning lows even with the market pushing towards the lows in the afternoon. Going into this weekend, I don't believe the SP500 has enough to test that record highs anymore. The market's going to adjust to these geopolitical events and reprice before making that push higher. Earnings are done, so I'll be looking for these tariffs/trade war talks to move the market. Looking at individual stocks, the small caps/mid caps stocks are the place to be. These smaller stocks are still making nice gaps out of solid bases. For the week I finished just under $95k, and I'll be looking into some of those reports next week to push me over the triple digit mark.

 

[jeffalvinson]

Friday's closing daily candle chart on the SP500 shows the bench mark index was perfectly supported by its short term 20 day moving average.

[SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 20 day moving average]

The Buy the Dip crowd managed to move the SP500 back up above the daily low in the
last hour (3-4pm) of trading.

[SP500, 1 day, 5 minute candles]

 

[optionsinvestor]

That SP500 did come off its lows just before closing out for the week. That's interesting because it could indicate that buyers are attempting to make another push for that record high. I'm a bit more cautious, but I did jump back into a trade that would capitalize on that run. I bought AMZN Aug $1910 calls right here. I'll see if I can average down on this one today. I'll hold it for 3-4 days as I think AMZN has room to hit $2000 if the SP500 runs back to record levels.

 

[optionsinvestor]

I was able to add SQ Sep 75 calls going forward today. I missed the cheaper prices yesterday, but from its daily chart, I'm looking at the breakout and momentum swing higher from here. I have also been adding ETSY Sep 45 calls here. I'm still holding AMZN and NVDA calls and I will monitor NVDA closely. There's a chance I might want to leg into a call spread on Thursday.

 

[jeffalvinson]

From a micro trend standpoint, it will be interesting to see if the SP500 can break above and close above its declining 400ma (grey line).

[current chart: SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points]

 

[jeffalvinson]

That SP500 did come off its lows just before closing out for the week. That's interesting because it could indicate that buyers are attempting to make another push for that record high. I'm a bit more cautious, but I did jump back into a trade that would capitalize on that run. I bought AMZN Aug $1910 calls right here. I'll see if I can average down on this one today. I'll hold it for 3-4 days as I think AMZN has room to hit $2000 if the SP500 runs back to record levels.

OI, did you average down yesterday on AMZN?

 

[optionsinvestor]

Technically I did, but not at those depressed levels towards the end of the day. I was done by 1pm yesterday on AMZN and I didn't get as heavy as I did last week. This time around I ended at 6 contracts only. Thanks for the chart Jeff, it will be interesting to see that happen. There's no real fundamental news out right now that can be positive. It's all negative, whether it is the Turkey issue or tariffs with all the other countries. The one positive I see is that there's some small divergence now between US companies and Chinese companies. Where I used to see BA and CAT follow large caps from China like BABA and BIDU down on almost every tariff talks the past several months, this time around BA and CAT are holding up much better. That's some divergence that suggests support on US stocks now and that's a big change from just weeks ago.

There's really no earning trades that I like at all. I watched the Chinese stocks like YY, HUYA, and BZUN all tank. I was setting up for a momentum on BZUN, but within minutes of the open that one just crushed and loss -8pts in 15 mins or so. The only one I'm actually in right now is NVDA, which is reporting on Thursday in the after hours. I'll probably set up a call spread for that one. I also want to set up something for CSCO, but we'll see how things play out first.