My trades
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It's all still rumors, but I feel like those two events were so close together that they might just be related. And Saudi's mega fund has somewhere in the ballpark of $2T? That's just from a google search, but if that number's true, then it can buyout the rest of TSLA for Elon. Again, this is all rumors and I thought it was funny that he put the price at $420. I wouldn't be surprise if Elon was smoking some strong stuff in Cali while tweeting that. Still, if this is true and more details will come out over the next few days, then I do want to put in a bigger investment into this position as I'd expect shorts to slowly get squeezed out. I'd look for $400-$410 as the target, no way it gets to $420 until long after the news is reported.
It's a good thing you decided against it....Same way I decided against going long. Looks like the numbers were ugly, but the conference call has changed that and DIS is actually up in the after hours. Must have been something in that conference call. That said, MTCH is the one I missed out. It gapped down on that announcement from AMZN months ago, and that has kept me from testing out this trade. But I have been gathering info on TSLA, and it sure looks like this $380-$400 range might hold for 1-2 weeks. I'm sure TSLA is the talk of the day and week from here on out.
Still lots of corp buybacks for this month
TSLA could be strong for a while. It seems bulls are really very enthusiatic about their positions so, probably, will hold on to them and maybe, even add more shares. Bears have huge losses so, could be chasing TSLA higher trying to get out and minimize any more damage to their accounts.
I sold it on July 24th. My trades have a 4 trading day cycle and July 24 was the 4th trading day,
starting from entry day July 19th (trade day 1). That call micro trend on July 19th was already getting exhausted being the 9th consecutive call signal the program outputed, so I was only looking for a modest profit. When a micro trend direction is brand new, I look for 60% to 100%
profit within the first 3 signals of a new micro trend, but this one was already long in the tooth.
Below is the anatomy of that trade starting with the signal generation night 07-18, to completion on July 24th.
Also at the bottom of page is a 1 month, 2 hour candle chart of the August 283 call, expires 8/17. (Dates at the bottom of chart, price on the right side.)
Signal
Date.....Option.....Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-18..AUG283C...1.82...1.87..2.08..1.73..1.98
AUG283C Buy 1: 1.55 / Sell Limit: 2.20 or if drops
AUG283C Buy 1: 1.25 / Sell Limit: 1.75
07-18 above is Signal Night and trade parameters for Trade Day 07-19 (Trade Day 1).
07-19: Buy 1 at 1.55 filled on 07-19 but options declined until
07-23 when Buy 2 filled at 1.25 filled on 07-23 (Trade Day 3).
07-24 (Trade Day 4) had a Surprise Gap Up Opening of 1.98
that continued to rise and I closed the trade within the first 5 minutes at 2.10.
(and that completed my 4 day trade cycle)
Signal
Date......Option..Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-19..AUG283C..1.98..1.77..1.85..1.49..1.56
Signal
Date.....Option....Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-20..AUG283C..1.56..1.52..1.64..1.27..1.30
Signal
Date......Option..Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-23..AUG283C..1.30 1.27 1.54 1.13 1.54
Signal
Date......Option..Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-24..AUG283C..1.54..1.98..2.47..1.73..1.96
Signal
Date.......Option..Pr.CL..Open..High..Low..Close
07-25..AUG283C..1.96..1.94..3.57..1.91..3.07
Thanks for elaborating Jeff. Looks to me like it's just a different method to the same goal of profits. I was just surprised at the run on those options. This is a SPY option making runs like options in beta stocks.
I've been reading at everything on TSLA, and wow there's over 20 articles since the after hours on TSLA. Looks to me like "funding secured" is overly scrutinized here. It also seems like no one is talking about the first event leading to that second event. It's all still rumor, but I'm on the side that with the FT news release of Saudi making an investment, Elon posted his tweet to get ahead of what my be a backing from the Saudi megafund. If that's true, then I'm leaning on the side that Saudi's megafund has enough (~$60B) to cover the $420/sh needed for the LBO. It would also be interesting to see how many of the large investors want to stay on board in private TSLA. Looks like the price tag could easily come down into the $30-$40B.
Either way, there are still a lot of unknowns, but I'm leaning towards a solid run from $379 to $400 within 2 weeks. I'm sure more detailed news from Musk is due soon, and I believe some shorts are going to have to cover from here to $400. I'm leaning towards a 10-12% position on TSLA calls. That one TSLA call was played on speculation that this was either a hoax (and a total loss of -$1k for me) or this turns out to be a real buyout and the 360 calls double or triple.
I've been reading at everything on TSLA, and wow there's over 20 articles since the after hours on TSLA. Looks to me like "funding secured" is overly scrutinized here. It also seems like no one is talking about the first event leading to that second event. It's all still rumor, but I'm on the side that with the FT news release of Saudi making an investment, Elon posted his tweet to get ahead of what my be a backing from the Saudi megafund. If that's true, then I'm leaning on the side that Saudi's megafund has enough (~$60B) to cover the $420/sh needed for the LBO. It would also be interesting to see how many of the large investors want to stay on board in private TSLA. Looks like the price tag could easily come down into the $30-$40B.
Either way, there are still a lot of unknowns, but I'm leaning towards a solid run from $379 to $400 within 2 weeks. I'm sure more detailed news from Musk is due soon, and I believe some shorts are going to have to cover from here to $400. I'm leaning towards a 10-12% position on TSLA calls. That one TSLA call was played on speculation that this was either a hoax (and a total loss of -$1k for me) or this turns out to be a real buyout and the 360 calls double or triple.
I just saw WB's price action, looks like some solid earning report. As for TSLA, I've added TSLA Aug 370 calls at 13.90 avg. I still believe there's a sovereign fund that's backing this lbo. I'm only looking for $400, and I'll take $390 too.
I took profits on TSLA Aug 10 360 calls locking in +940 on that call. Will hold the the 370 calls for a longer trade. I played this one only because I locked in gains of about +12.7k on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, I'm sitting at $88.6k with about +$1k in unrealized gains.
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Looks like the tech trade is back in play. I've added AMZN Aug 1900 calls looking for a momentum run. Will do the same with GOOGL Aug 1270 calls too. I might be starting at the highs here so I'm setting these two for an averaging down type of entry.