My trades

I'm set for the after hours. I've got QRVO and SQ calls in play for earnings. I have been adding AAPL Aug 3 200 calls all day getting up to 40 calls at now, and I'm betting on AAPL hitting that $1T mark by Friday. I think I'll have to wait another day for that move. I still have some of the FB 180 puts and did add back into BA using the Aug 3 $350 puts as hedges in case of tariff news.

I've also added NXPI calls. For this one, I felt NXPI has fallen too low after the QCOM merger was off, and this was at least a good place to test the bounce up to $100 at the very least. On the interest rate side, I went with JPM Aug $115 calls betting on strong jobs data pushing shares of banking higher as interest rates creep up with rate hikes expected in Sep and December. And I still have holdovers from yesterday with the MSFT 105 calls (after selling all of the 106 calls this morning) along with a small position in CMG Aug3 440 calls that I actually considered as a total loss this morning when I saw CMG selling off again. I do feel that both are oversold and should at least bounce back, especially with earnings from both very strong in the past week.
 
I'm not sure how this will play out yet, but I took to the open and added 10 more AAPL 200 calls on this weak open for a total of 50. And I feel like SQ will do a repeat of last quarter's move. So I've added SQ Aug 65 calls looking for a bounce.

Closed out all the FB puts and also took out BA puts as I'm closing out most of the weekly calls (except for AAPL 200 calls and SQ 67.5 calls). The total gain on this FB Aug 3 $180 put came to +3921. The entire BA puts (350 and 355 puts) had a realized gain of +3500. On the losing side, took a loss on the entire MSFT trade at -1080 and CMG 440 calls -245.

Those 50 AAPL 200 calls are paying off quick showing an unrealized +11,097 gain right now. I'm playing this like I did last quarter where I believed AAPL was going to hit that $1T mark. Last quarter I took a loss playing that bet. This time around, I'm going to use a lower target than $207. I'm just looking for $205 on AAPL and readjust after exiting this position.
 
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And, AAPL is running this morning. I can't keep holding these 50 calls watching them nearly triple. I'm closing them out now.

All out between $3.85-$4.00, and just as I get out AAPL makes the next leg up to $4.50 range on these Aug 3 $200 calls. Screw that.
 
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optionsinvestor said:
And, AAPL is running this morning. I can't keep holding these 50 calls watching them nearly triple. I'm closing them out now.

All out between $3.85-$4.00, and just as I get out AAPL makes the next leg up to $4.50 range on these Aug 3 $200 calls. Screw that.
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Very good call on AAPL again. Wow, what a run up!
 
smallfil said:
Very good call on AAPL again. Wow, what a run up!
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Yea, I was more cautious this time around because I took the loss last quarter. I knew I had to average up this morning when the options dipped below $2.00. My target was always +3.00 on this trade where I thought AAPL might stop just under $205. I was wrong on the strength of this momentum, and AAPL nearly hit it minutes ago. Where I thought this might happen Monday of next week, I now believe AAPL can hit that $207.05 by the end of close today, or tomorrow morning. I'm onto SQ now as I still have those SQ Aug 3 $67.5 calls. Those things were at 0.07 this morning lol. I had considered them a total loss. That's some crazy move, although it did something similar in its last report back in May. I love it when they create the same patterns quarter over quarter.
 
optionsinvestor said:
Yea, I was more cautious this time around because I took the loss last quarter. I knew I had to average up this morning when the options dipped below $2.00. My target was always +3.00 on this trade where I thought AAPL might stop just under $205. I was wrong on the strength of this momentum, and AAPL nearly hit it minutes ago. Where I thought this might happen Monday of next week, I now believe AAPL can hit that $207.05 by the end of close today, or tomorrow morning. I'm onto SQ now as I still have those SQ Aug 3 $67.5 calls. Those things were at 0.07 this morning lol. I had considered them a total loss. That's some crazy move, although it did something similar in its last report back in May. I love it when they create the same patterns quarter over quarter.
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Those SQ Aug 3 $67.50 Calls went down to $7 and all the way up to $430.00? Unbelievable volatility!
 
Yep smallfil, saw that in my account. It was crazy watching it come back to life. But that's how earning trades are. I've got a few more earning trades to set up today too, and like I've said before every time I make a big gain, I want to jump in and take on higher beta positions. I'm looking at ANET, GDDY, and DATA for some after hours move.
 
I've been slowly adding those earning trades in and I did not jump into ANET (options are too expensive and spreads are too wide). I am using GDDY Aug $75 calls, FLT Aug $220 calls, and DATA Aug 3 $110 calls. I like all 3 charts here with GDDY bouncing off the bottom of its trend channel, FLT just starting to breakout into new highs, and DATA bouncing nicely today after falling a bit the last couple of days. The DATA position is only a 1/2 position, so nothing with too much risk ending tomorrow.
 
OI, whats your read on these charts? Heading for new highs, or dead cat bounce?
It appears we may have rebounded from a couple days of retracement to daily candle support levels: SP500 rising 20dma, Nasdaq rising 50dma, on the way to possibly higher highs?

[SP500, 1 Month, daily candles, 20dma (violet line)]
SP500 8_2 DAILY.png


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[Nasdaq, 1 Month, daily candles, 50dma (blue line)]
NASDAQ 8_2 DAILY.png
 
I'm leaning more on the side of new highs coming up. That's if Trump's White House doesn't throw any more wildcards out there. For the past 2 months, this market has been trying to gain steam, but these surprise tariff news have put a stop to them. The flow is higher though. Reading through all the earnings report, the general trend is definitely up. I have seen a lot more revenue guidance suggesting strength in this rally. We still have plenty more reports to come for the next couple of weeks and I expect those reports to be solid. I think where things get muddy is in September where volume is expected to increase and with the midterms in full swing the market will become more sensitive to macro news like additional tariffs/trade wars.

The comments the last 2 days would have tanked this market in September. The only thing saving us have been strong earning reports with AAPL being the latest. When you have a $1T market cap stock moving +10% higher (past 2 days), it's going to pull the market along. None of my options go past August expirations, and that's because I'll be resetting my view of the market by that time too. For the time being, I'm heavy on the long side (in fact I've $15k in August 17 options). If there's headwind news, I'll hedge using stocks that I know had some weak reports (FB and NFLX are the obvious 2) along with trade sensitive stocks (BA and CAT are the 2 that I've set aside as tariff sensitive). Otherwise, I want to take advantage of any momentum I see in the market (something like AAPL the past 2 days).

BTW Jeff, I bet that SP500 is very close if not above that 400ma you've been tracking. We've got jobs data tomorrow too, and that'll show us how strong economy is and could push interest rates higher in turn pulling banks back up (that's why I have that JPM Aug 115 calls). If banks hold and techs are holding too, then this market should continue with healthcare near highs and biotech reports fairly solid (I read up on REGN this morning).
 
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