My trades

Nice chart Jeff. Once the SP500 broke off from 2800, it rallied hard. The strength is there to test 2875. I don't think we'll hold 2875 on this first test. I think it'll touch it and fall back. I don't even think it'll reach 2875, I'm hoping for something in the 2865-2870 range. If AMZN pushes, we should see SP500 hold levels here and slowly climb. Then there's the GDP with that 4.1% that can give SP500 a few more points, and finally, AAPL's report will move the SP500. If AAPL sells off, then it will look at SP500 2850 is the target.

I'm holding still on my techs right now, but I might sell GOOGL calls by end of day. That one's a monster, those 5 calls are showing me an unrealized gain of +$6k right now. I did avg down on PYPL Aug 90 calls, and I added 2 new earning trades with DECK Aug 125 calls and LRCX Jul 27 170 puts. I'm at 6 wins/5 losses on earning trades now.
 
optionsinvestor said:
Nice chart Jeff. Once the SP500 broke off from 2800, it rallied hard. The strength is there to test 2875. I don't think we'll hold 2875 on this first test. I think it'll touch it and fall back. I don't even think it'll reach 2875, I'm hoping for something in the 2865-2870 range. If AMZN pushes, we should see SP500 hold levels here and slowly climb. Then there's the GDP with that 4.1% that can give SP500 a few more points, and finally, AAPL's report will move the SP500. If AAPL sells off, then it will look at SP500 2850 is the target.

I'm holding still on my techs right now, but I might sell GOOGL calls by end of day. That one's a monster, those 5 calls are showing me an unrealized gain of +$6k right now. I did avg down on PYPL Aug 90 calls, and I added 2 new earning trades with DECK Aug 125 calls and LRCX Jul 27 170 puts. I'm at 6 wins/5 losses on earning trades now.
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"That's really nice analysis as to where and why the market is heading,
and your still killing it on the trades and account gains."
 
That's why I like your charts, I'll use that against events that are coming up and try to figure out where most are positioning themselves. The odds on AMZN is up right now. You can feel most traders selling AMZN heading into its earning report, so any upside surprise will push it higher and that will help SP500.

But I'm going to be cautious too, so I'm trying to get out of all my GOOGL 1260 calls into the close here. Everything else is a hold. Took a full loss of -1322 on ALGN call spread, and locked in gains of +1100 on NOW calls. I also locked in +1059 on the AMZN short 1900 calls that I sold (but bought back this morning).
 
Well, looks like AMZN helped calm the markets here. A weak report from AMZN and we would have been looking at a run down. The reports tonight were mixed though, where AMZN is up 3%, INTC is down about 5%. After hours show AMZN at $1868. I guess the sweet spot for my 1850/1900 call spread would have AMZN just under $1900. But, I'll take anything right now with the net cost of the spread at $240 per spread. Although I was able to get it for a cheap price, I did put the $2500-$3000 I had in unrealized gains at risk playing it this way. So I am going to see if I can get that back tomorrow morning. I might have sold GOOGL too early looking at that finish, but I can't go broke taking a profit. I did play a heavy ($3.4k risk) BABA Aug 3 $195 call position that did move in tandem with AMZN in the after hours. I'll say that this quarter has given us some great opportunities. You can see the dips get taken up quick almost every time. Once that pattern became obvious, it was more about jumping into the market. I played GOOGL like that for the past 2 weeks before and here after its earning report. On every dip, buying GOOGL gave me solid gains. I believe the same worked for AMZN too. If AMZN can close out at $1890 tomorrow, that'll be the cherry on top for this week. I think the only thing I missed was that FB trade.
 
I thought I'd be done with AMZN and GOOGL by the end of today, but I can feel investors jumping out of FB and jumping into both of these positions. I saw it on GOOGL right into the close where shares just rallied into the close. It was almost like investors didn't want to miss the GOOG train. I'm going to have to jump back into GOOGL and AMZN using next week's options. That's one thing about me, I'll milk a trade for as much as it'll give me. I took a look at my GOOGL trades this quarter and the gains from those trades were $14,773. For AMZN, the gains are $4,225 with more gains to come once I close this AMZN 1850/1900 call spread. I just realized that I was trading more into NFLX, NVDA, and SQ the first six months of the year. I haven't done any of those 3 this week at all while I'm more heavy in AMZN and GOOGL. That's what I'll be looking for going into next week.

I also wanted to point out that LRCX is at +6 in premarket. Sometimes you nail the earning report and the stock moves against you. I must have missed something in the CC. The headlines were clearly weak and I saw that weak Q3 guidance on eps and revenue, but the shares are up.


I'll just add it here. Closed out the AMZN call spread at +4000. Then I went on and added AMZN Aug 3 $1900 calls, GOOGL Aug 3 1280 calls, and CMG Aug 3 475 calls. These are initial positions so you can bet 1-2 contracts on each trade as I believe I'll be able to grab them at lower prices. In addition I added FB Aug 3 180 puts as a hedge. If the market gets weak, I think more of FB should go.

Also taking losses on LRCX puts at -1053, and DECK calls at -1307. I'm also going to close out PYPL Aug 90 calls now taking the loss. I'll look to get back into PYPL. I don't expect to close out anymore trades, so I'm recapping here. For the first 4 weeks, I've closed out 23 winners/18 losers with win avg +2404, and loss avg -1122 with locked in profits of $34.7k ($23K from GOOGL and AMZN only).
 
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Darn near looks like we may be heading down to the test the 400ma again.
(SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points)




7_27.png
 
It looks that way. AMZN's report and solid gdp at 4.1% (although that just matched estimates and was well known) couldn't even hold the market. The Russell 2000 went first. I don't think it was ever green today, but -1.4% right now. That's big.

I was able to grab GOOGL, AMZN, and CMG calls with the strikes I mentioned above, and I have a full position on FB as a hedge ($5k risk put in FB puts). I'm hoping FB puts can cancel out the losses in the other 3 positions. I did end up closing ADBE 255 calls (I didn't like the push back below 260 after it held that level for 2 days). Also added BABA all the way down to the bottom. I'm pretty big on BABA now too.
 
Thanks for the chart Jeff,

It surely didn't stop there. I didn't start averaging down until right after 1pm. I used BABA as my leading stock to the downside, and BABA capitulated at about 1:04pm. I took the loss on BABA 195 calls at -2687, and rolled down to the Aug 3 $190 and $192.5 calls. Right now, I have about $5.2k of initial risk on BABA in play through the weekend. I also averaged down on GOOGL, AMZN, and CMG calls. All three are showing a loss of -1500. The only reason I stayed in was because the FB puts I used to hedge is showing a nice +1787.

There's not much next week as the FANG's are all done. We do have AAPL on Thursday, and I think CAT on Monday morning will kick the week off. Any comments from CAT concerning tariffs will probably spook the market, on the other hand, if CAT can pull out something like BA, then we could bounce right back to 2850 by end of week. Nasdaq will probably hold steady until AAPL.

I didn't finish this week with a bang, but started the week off well and was able to add to those gains. Right now, I'm sitting at $58.4k after a loss of -$4k for the day.
 
optionsinvestor said:
Thanks for the chart Jeff,

It surely didn't stop there. I didn't start averaging down until right after 1pm. I used BABA as my leading stock to the downside, and BABA capitulated at about 1:04pm. I took the loss on BABA 195 calls at -2687, and rolled down to the Aug 3 $190 and $192.5 calls. Right now, I have about $5.2k of initial risk on BABA in play through the weekend. I also averaged down on GOOGL, AMZN, and CMG calls. All three are showing a loss of -1500. The only reason I stayed in was because the FB puts I used to hedge is showing a nice +1787.

There's not much next week as the FANG's are all done. We do have AAPL on Thursday, and I think CAT on Monday morning will kick the week off. Any comments from CAT concerning tariffs will probably spook the market, on the other hand, if CAT can pull out something like BA, then we could bounce right back to 2850 by end of week. Nasdaq will probably hold steady until AAPL.

I didn't finish this week with a bang, but started the week off well and was able to add to those gains. Right now, I'm sitting at $58.4k after a loss of -$4k for the day.
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Re CAT, this is my opinion.
The previous mining boom as such ended suddenly around 2011.
Prior to the top of the boom, generally everyone was bullish to the extent, talk was of this going for the next 50 to 100 years, as a consequence CAT and other mining equipment suppliers did a roaring trade.
Once mining slumped, billions of dollars of good mining vehicles were laid up in yards around mining cities. In Perth for example there are suburbs eg Midland, where vehicles in their hundreds are sitting idle. Much of the equipment was transported off the mine sites into cities for maintenance and storage.
After the boom, most mining companies no longer expanded, they attempted to shrink costs to a bare minimum in order to survive. Production was maintained but expansion was curtailed.
Now the boom appears to be gathering momentum again, mining companies are still very aware to keep costs down.
CAT will struggle for new sales, there is still too many vehicles sitting idle in yards looking for a buyer.
I believe the PE ratio of CAT is 39, still way too high imo.
 
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