My trades

The chart patterns below of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Russel Small Cap Index (RUT) are very similar. I have a tendency to use the RUT as a leading indicator because they are cheap speculative stocks (with little or no earnings). When the market's going tank, speculators have a tendency to sell the least valuable indices first. Markets going to rise, buy up the cheap stuff first.
[Russel Small Cap, 6 months]
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[Nasdaq 100, 6 months]

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I've used those two indicators for the past 6 months too. I have the rut and nasdaq indexes on my list and I've noticed those 2 in tandem most of the time. It's just been the last few days where I started to notice that divergence, but it could be due to expected earning results in large cap techs that are pulling nasdaq higher.

NFLX drops anymore here and I add those calls right back to what I have left. That's a crazy move on 1 downgrade. There were 2 analyst updates yesterday and that didn't move NFLX this much with volume much higher than average.

NFLX down to $408, I had to add some of these calls back into my account. The drop was just low. I'll keep and close eye and close out if it drops below today's low.

I was also able to avg down a bit on JPM Jul 105 calls bring the avg price to 2.27.
 
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OI, I would be remiss if I didn't mention one last indicator that is worth noting because so many of the older Wall Street analysts use it:
Its the transportation index, which includes Fed Ex, UPS, & large trucking companies. They deliver merchandise to online shoppers and large retail stores.
If its down, it usually means there is an anticipation of poor retail sales reports.
If its up, it usually means good retail sales, both online and in large retail stores.
Here is a 6 month chart of the IYT.
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YT, with daily candles, 200dma, & range channels.
 
The good old transports. I don't think the dow theory is going to occur soon where djia and dow transport both hit highs at the same time. Right now, the oil factor is creating a top for these transports. Back in March when I had positions in oil stocks, I was also looking at the transports were trading. I stopped tracking them in May when I closed all my oil stocks, but it looks like they've been range bound since, and they will stay like this because you now have tariffs in addition to oil cost for these transports. When I'm looking for this breakout of 2800 from the SP500, I'm not looking at anything long term at all (beyond 3 months). I think once earning reports are done in mid-August, we're going back to sideways trading around 2800 if the SP500 doesn't get far above it. That's because tariffs are just starting and I don't think anyone knows where it ends. You've got China/US tariffs in play now, but there's US/Euro, and then US/Mexico and Canada trade wars too.... Just too many unknowns right now.

That's why I'm heavy now trying to catch any updrafts before it's over. I've actually lighten up to 21% cash now, but I want to make as much of my gains right now where I feel the market is at a sweet spot before the market moves on.
 
That was close to a push above 2800 for the SP500. I should have added to my winners today. There was a point between noon and 3pm est where most of the leading stocks were stuck in a tight range. Still, the move on GOOGL above $1200 and ADBE up to $255 helped greatly, and grabbing more NFLX below $410 also turned out to be gold as of the close today.

It was a rough start taking that big loss on TSLA calls and watching my account down to $15.5k at one point, but closing some of the NFLX calls today along with GOOGL and ADBE's unrealized gains have helped my account push up to $23.2k. I have noticed some strong price action in these early earning reports like the nice move in PEP and that 10% run on FAST earlier this week. If the banks can rally tomorrow, it will give me more courage to jump into leading stocks reporting earnings in the next 2 weeks (or allow me to hold onto stocks like NFLX and GOOGL that are reporting earnings soon).
 
I was definitely giving JPM a chance to bounce along with banks. WFC and C were both negative premarket as the numbers just weren't enough. JPM, on the other hand, had much better numbers, but the price action at the open was enough for me to get out before things get worse. I also pulled back on NFLX here leaving just 1 call of NFLX Jul $420 in play. Those are the are only adjustments I'm making right now. I still believe in GOOGL and ADBE to hold these gains. Banks are turning south, and it looks like they will drag the market lower today.

I guess, there's a bit more shuffling going on right now. I'm watching my streamer and the only tech turning green each time is AMZN. If I believe the market still have some room higher, then this is the position to be in at least into next week. So I've added AMZN Jul $1820 calls. I'll look to average down throughout the day. So far, the avg entry is 15.53 for these AMZN calls.

I think I'm done adding AMZN, have an avg price down to 14.53. Doesn't seem like AMZN will let me get prices lower than this right now.
 
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I thought I was done with JPM, but I really liked the numbers $2.29 on $28.36B vs. $2.22 on $27.39B estimates. I heard trading was up +19% too. WFC and C dragged down JPM and I closed out the position too early, but I think there's a run here into earnings from GS next week. I jumped back in JPM Jul 105 calls at avg 2.87. I'll see if I can get a chance to avg down on this one too. A soft stop is set at $1.30.

Avg down JPM Jul 105 calls to 2.55.
 
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Only thing I did this afternoon was add into my AMZN Jul 1820 calls. I didn't think the market would give me anything under $14.50 again for AMZN, but the market moved lower between 1:30-3:00pm and that gave me the opportunity to lower my cost on this position to 14.19. I like AMZN and GOOGL's price action the last half of this week. Volume on AMZN was actually heavy today at 110% of its daily avg.

Overall, the NFLX position gave me a net profit of +1262, but I still have 1 call opened and it is losing -600. Where I locked in over -3200 in losses last week, this week I have nearly +3600 in locked in profits coming from FB and NFLX calls. I do feel like I'm more in sync with the market now and can feel the market's swings better this week. It should get even more interesting next week as earnings pick up and I'll be looking for big swings from these high flying tech stocks. NFLX and MSFT are up first.

In terms of closed positions, it has been fairly even so far with a win ratio of 54% and an avg winning trade at 726 vs. a losing trade at -790. I think the only reason I'm up to $24.6k right now is due to my positions in ADBE Aug 255 calls, GOOGL Jul wk4 $1200 calls, and AMZN Jul $1820 calls. Those three trades are showing an unrealized gain of +6900.
 
I didn't like JPM's premarket trades, but it looks like BAC saved the day with strong numbers. Of the investment banks/banks, I liked JPM and BAC's charts. So to have both of them report strong data should help this week. I will be looking closely at JPM before the close. We still have GS due out tomorrow morning and that could change things.

I did sell more than 1/2 of my AMZN calls this morning. AMZN trading at 1825 pushed my AMZN Jul $1820 calls above $22. I had over $7100 initial risk on AMZN, and this morning that position was up to $11k. That was just too much on one position. I still have 2 calls, so I can still catch any additional run higher. This also allows me to hold the final NFLX Jul 420 calls I still have. I only locked in profits of $1262 on NFLX and a total loss of this last call would wipe out that profit. By locking in almost $2500 in AMZN profits, I can play this NFLX call and still sleep well tonight. I'm still bullish on large cap techs.

I'm looking at EBAY, URI, MSFT, SKX, and IBM for earnings this week. It should be interesting.
 
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