My trades

[jeffalvinson]

SP500 is again struggling with its declining 400ma micro trend line (gray line), similar to 2 days ago.
Todays chart (5 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points):

 

[optionsinvestor]

That 400 sma seems to be spot on. I wonder how long that 400 sma has been working this year.

 

[jeffalvinson]

That 400 sma seems to be spot on. I wonder how long that 400 sma has been working this year.

That's a good question.
I have used it since the late 1990's after going to Pristine School and it has worked at a success rate of about 65% to 70% accurate. I don't keep old charts (too numerous) and you really can't back test 5 minute period charts, "but," its the equivilent of the "5 day moving average," and you can back test the 5 day moving average (see below).

The 5 day moving average looks good if you select a time frame of 1 month at a time:

However when you look at 6 months (below) of chart using the 5dma, it looks messy because the time frame is too fast for the length of the chart:

"But" there is a way around the clutter of a 6 month chart (5dma) by going to bigcharts.com and selecting one or two months back at a time, by using the setting "Time": "Custom."
With the custom setting, you can go back as far as you want by typing in the dates under "Custom Time Frame", and look at one month two months, three months....etc..
Here is January and February 2018 (5dma) using custom time frame setting from 1/2/2018 to 2/28/2018:

 

[jeffalvinson]

The SPX gapped up at the open. I sold yesterdays calls into today's gap up opening.
Gap Up openings fail approximately 50% of the time, thus the term "Gap and Crap."
Once again the SP500 has finished below its declining 400ma (grey line) for the 6th consecutive day and it finished lower then the high of its first 5 minute candle (G & C).
Closing Chart for 6/22/2018 (10 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points):

 

[optionsinvestor]

Thanks for the charts Jeff, I'm watching your charts update on here, and that's a big red there at the end. If I'm really looking for patterns here, I wouldn't be surprised to see 1-2 more red bars like today's move. I'm still hoping for support at 2664 (200-day ma). If that doesn't hold, then expect a death cross soon (50/200 day ma bearish crossover). In fact, just looking at the SP500 chart of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it went back to the bottom of this range at 2590-2600.

 

[jeffalvinson]

OI, your welcome. That was good analysis.

Today's SP500 Micro Trend chart (10 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points),
7 consecutive closes under the declining 400ma micro trend:

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Daily Candle SP500 Chart, 6 months, 200dma. "If" (big if) the SP500 declines further and closes at its 200dma, it could be the first lower...low for the SP500 since it started its April recovery from the February -10% correction.

 

[jeffalvinson]

OI, here is an interesting observation that I notice tonight:
Of all the major indexes (SP500, Dow 30, Nasdaq, & Russell),
"only the Dow 30 has already pulled back to the its 200 day moving average today."
This leads me to the following questions:
(1) "Because the very popular Dow 30 index has hit the highly recognized 200 day moving average today, will "Battleship Dow" raise all the other ships (indexes) in the harbor starting this week?"
(2) "Is the Dow really a leading indicator for when markets rise of fall?"

 

[smallfil]

OI, here is an interesting observation that I notice tonight:
Of all the major indexes (SP500, Dow 30, Nasdaq, & Russell),
"only the Dow 30 has already pulled back to the its 200 day moving average today."
This leads me to the following questions:
(1) "Because the very popular Dow 30 index has hit the highly recognized 200 day moving average today, will "Battleship Dow" raise all the other ships (indexes) in the harbor starting this week?"
(2) "Is the Dow really a leading indicator for when markets rise of fall?"

I use the daily charts too in my trading. That said, if you plot this on the weekly chart, you can see that the long term trend is pretty much intact and still up! In the near term, past 4 months or so, we have been going sideways. I think it moves higher from here.

 

[jeffalvinson]

From a micro trend stand point (you got a start somewhere) , the SP500 is attempting to build a base on the Pivot Point line (neutral point, brown line). Still well below its 400ma declining micro trend (grey line).
Even though the SP500 is up 5 to 6 points, SPY calls are down a little due to volatility dropping.

SP500, 2 days, 5 minutes candles, 400ma, Pivot Points:

 

[jeffalvinson]

If the SP500 drops to its 200 day moving average, we should get a rebound effect. If it doesn't rebound around the 200dma, it would be surprising.

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Coincidentally, on a 2 day, 5 minute candle, 400ma, Pivot Point chart;
the Support 2 (S2, green line at bottom of chart) is approximately equivilent to the 200dma.
If it actually does drop to S2, it may take more than a day to get there.