My trades

[jeffalvinson]

I am in modest profit / low risk mathematical trade today with a R/R: 2 to 1.
Bought the SPY JUL279 calls (July 20 exp) with the following bracket order:
Buy Limit: 1.25 / Sell Limit: 1.75 (+40%) / Stop: 1.00 (-17%)
Below is the 5 day, 5 minute candle, 400ma, Pivot Point chart for the SPX.
Today is the 3rd consecutive day price is below the 400ma (grey line). The first 2 days, price rebounded back up to the Pivot Point (brown line), but below the 400ma bearish micro trend.
(4 days ago my mathematical system had a signal for puts. That trade completed today.)

 

[beerntrading]

You coming around on this thought? Volume is above average today, the later day volume is stronger and on rising prices. Overall, a lot of charts will put in a technically bearish candle today, but it looks like a bear trap to me. Also, 52 week high / low is above 1.00 and RUT is outperforming.

View attachment 187450

Looks like a building dragonfly landing on that trendline. Every time a long tail has pierced the trendline, we've put in a solid green candle the next day.

TL;DR: BTFD.


I know, right? Who wouldn't be shitting holding that man's debt. At 3-f'ing percent, no less.

Oh....and that bounce off 2750!...forgot we had that line in the way too.

 

[optionsinvestor]

The Chinese made a very small token offer of increasing purchases of US goods. They were not really serious about it! Had they been and just said, okay, we will order more US goods. Try to have fair trade by ordering the same amount they export from the US, this would have been over! I do not think the Chinese are that stupid to actually, want a trade war that will hurt them more than the US. More likely, they are trying to have a deal which still favors them somewhat. President Trump might give them that. Say, okay until 2020, you can export $200 billion to the US and just buy $150 billion in US goods. However, starting in 2021, for every $200 billion you export in Chinese goods to the US, you have to buy $200 billion in US goods! That deal can be signed because both parties are making an effort to address the problem. President Trump does not have all the items to be subjected to tariffs. That is the job of Lighthizer. Market reacts to news faster but, can do a 180 if suddenly, a trade deal is announced! I have confidence in President Trump's ability to strike deals as he has been doing that all his life! How many can actually, say that?

I thought Trump would give them a deal that slightly favors them at least to start. It actually felt like it was heading that way. Now in relation to my trades, I just thought Trump and his advisors were on the same page and when it was announced, Lighthizer would already have a list on hand. Had it been that route, it would have been easier to hold my trades through any slight turmoil. But given that Lighthizer doesn't even have a list set up yet, I think this creates enough of an uncertainty that the risk on my trade is now elevated and closing the trade now is the right time especially for positions that I had planned on holding for longer than 2 weeks. Again, all of this is in relation to where my positions were at before the news.

Jeff, I am still hoping that the SP500 continues its higher high/higher low trend, although this current low might be more rounded than it is a V formation. In terms of the top at 2800 on the SP500, this news set that up perfectly. Now, I think once a list totaling $200B is set up and we see China's response, than the market should be able to rebound and possibly test those record highs. I believe all of this won't happen before those July calls I was holding will expire, and that's why I'm out. Of course, I could be off on the timing and the market hits new highs before July expiration.

 

[smallfil]

I thought Trump would give them a deal that slightly favors them at least to start. It actually felt like it was heading that way. Now in relation to my trades, I just thought Trump and his advisors were on the same page and when it was announced, Lighthizer would already have a list on hand. Had it been that route, it would have been easier to hold my trades through any slight turmoil. But given that Lighthizer doesn't even have a list set up yet, I think this creates enough of an uncertainty that the risk on my trade is now elevated and closing the trade now is the right time especially for positions that I had planned on holding for longer than 2 weeks. Again, all of this is in relation to where my positions were at before the news.

Jeff, I am still hoping that the SP500 continues its higher high/higher low trend, although this current low might be more rounded than it is a V formation. In terms of the top at 2800 on the SP500, this news set that up perfectly. Now, I think once a list totaling $200B is set up and we see China's response, than the market should be able to rebound and possibly test those record highs. I believe all of this won't happen before those July calls I was holding will expire, and that's why I'm out. Of course, I could be off on the timing and the market hits new highs before July expiration.

Closed my INTC trade today too not because of the Dow being down quite a bit. It was actually, a pretty good trade. My rules just told me to exit. Just my 2 cents. I think news is already baked into the markets by the time it opens. I do not even use it to make my trade decisions. Just the stockcharts for me. News by the time it comes out, insiders have already made their move. Also, got out of MOMO on the long side took a loss and went short because it went down. Trying to think thru my trades before pulling the trigger.

 

[optionsinvestor]

I want to see some clarity before setting up new trades. I am going to finish this first half with $118,535.71. I will remove $100k from it and start the second half with $18,535.71. Hope everyone gets a great Summer vacation too.

 

[smallfil]

I want to see some clarity before setting up new trades. I am going to finish this first half with $118,535.71. I will remove $100k from it and start the second half with $18,535.71. Hope everyone gets a great Summer vacation too.

Good on you. My aunt who used to trade stocks and did quite well at it did just that. She salted profits away in the bank and started with the leftovers to trade all over again. Wish you the best. You certainly, have inspired me and taught me things that would prove valuable. For that I am very much grateful.

 

[jeffalvinson]

SP500 is attempting to move back above the 400ma micro trend.
Here is today's chart (4 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points).
Yesterday my calls didn't hit there modest target of 1.75 and when I seen the positive futures before the opening bell, I choose to not use a Sell Limit and just let them run. I think this may be a "micro trend" change from bearish to bullish.

 

[jeffalvinson]

I was wrong about the SP500 breakout yesterday, it finished back below the declining 400ma
micro trend, I trailed out of the SPY 279 calls (opened Tuesday at 1.25) at 1.73.
Today I am repeating the same call option trade at
Buy Limit: 1.21 (filled) / Sell Limit: 1.70 / Stop: 1.20.
Here is today's SPX micro trend chart (2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points):

 

[jeffalvinson]

I want to see some clarity before setting up new trades. I am going to finish this first half with $118,535.71. I will remove $100k from it and start the second half with $18,535.71. Hope everyone gets a great Summer vacation too.

OI, that is an incredible job you did in a very short time. Really glad to see you with drawing the majority of it.

 

[optionsinvestor]

OI, that is an incredible job you did in a very short time. Really glad to see you with drawing the majority of it.

Thanks Jeff and smallfil, it was time to take profits out of play while the market finds a direction. As for direction, I'd keep watch on the SPX's 50-day ma. That 50-day ma played support perfectly in late May, but it is still 40 points below. I have a feeling we're going to see some sort of a test again soon. Earnings are done, so we won't get a boost there. If we fall below the 50-day ma, there's the 200-day ma at 2661 too. The interesting thing here is that volume has picked up since May. I expected to see some low volume slow grinding days, but there's been none of that so far. I'm probably going to wait until we get closer to the next earning season in mid July before jumping back into the market.