The tech sector is leading again. I see new highs on NFLX, LULU is about to hit record levels, and looks like NVDA isn't far behind. AAPL is holding at $192, and that should lead those shares higher soon. I still have that $1T target on AAPL. I feel like momentum will push AAPL right to $1T before it goes into consolidation mode.
My trades
- Thread starter optionsinvestor
- Start date
LULU is tech?
LULU is tech?
At this point, cnbc should change FANG stocks to FLANG stocks lol...
Buying bullish breakouts is only effective in a constantly uptrending market.
It doesn't work in a choppy sideways market, and it doesn't work in a downtrending market.
Example: Tell me (on the chart below) how many bullish breakout wins you would have had from late January 2018 to the end of March 2018? If I recall optioninvestor (who is the best there is) had to change his trading method completely from long swing trades to day trades
(the "see money, grab it!" method).
It doesn't work in a choppy sideways market, and it doesn't work in a downtrending market.
Example: Tell me (on the chart below) how many bullish breakout wins you would have had from late January 2018 to the end of March 2018? If I recall optioninvestor (who is the best there is) had to change his trading method completely from long swing trades to day trades
(the "see money, grab it!" method).
That's true jeff, I did shorten up my trades from over a week to about 1-3 days max during that period. The breakout still ran, but momentum ended much sooner and when momentum ended the stock reversed much quicker. Right now, we're in a rally mode, so even though the momentum rally has ended these stocks are still lingering at highs or even pushing higher on low vol.
Beer brought up a great stock to test home runs on, and I love the chart set up on TTWO, so I added ttwo jun 22 120 calls today. It hasn't broken out yet, but a push above $118 should bring in new buyers and create a momentum run. This is a home run type trade for me, so the risk is elevated with a higher expectation taking a full loss on this position. I've adjusted the size accordingly and it's about .5% of my total account.
By the way jeff, that SP500 is rounding out right at 2790 on that chart, and I thought I heard oil bouncing back higher late yesterday.
Beer brought up a great stock to test home runs on, and I love the chart set up on TTWO, so I added ttwo jun 22 120 calls today. It hasn't broken out yet, but a push above $118 should bring in new buyers and create a momentum run. This is a home run type trade for me, so the risk is elevated with a higher expectation taking a full loss on this position. I've adjusted the size accordingly and it's about .5% of my total account.
By the way jeff, that SP500 is rounding out right at 2790 on that chart, and I thought I heard oil bouncing back higher late yesterday.
OI, TTWO has a nice Cup & Handle, if it breaks above the handle its probably good for at least its 52 week high of 129.25.
Longer term chart appears to be heading for at least a double top or breakout above the 52 week high of 129.25
Longer term chart appears to be heading for at least a double top or breakout above the 52 week high of 129.25
That first chart is playing out as a nice reverse head and shoulder. Took me a couple of minutes to figure out the name of that pattern. I was looking for a break out of the pattern later this week, but looks like TTWO jumped ahead and decided to take out $118 today, and with volume at 150% of its 20-day avg. That should be enough for a momentum rally to take hold for the next few days. I'll be looking for 125 by next Friday. At least I have a target for this one, the first 4 attempts came with no real targets. I'm just going to exit DOCU tomorrow, my options have jumped from avg cost of 1.41 to 3.70 bid at the close today. Not quite the kind of % return I was looking for though.
Out of 10 home run trades, I'm going to expect 6-7 of them to be total losses, while 2-3 of them give me close to 400-500% returns so that I can continue to break even until I hit those +1000% returns. I still have some adjusting to do, probably look at farther out of the money options that have lower initial risk (0.10-0.50 instead of 0.50-2.00). I'm not sure on timing, but so far over a week to hold the position seems to give it a little more time for success right now. I need more actual data to support that though.
edit: I realized I might be playing this too conservatively. I think I'm settling for doubles or triples only and not really looking at home runs with my thought process. I'm going try something different.
Out of 10 home run trades, I'm going to expect 6-7 of them to be total losses, while 2-3 of them give me close to 400-500% returns so that I can continue to break even until I hit those +1000% returns. I still have some adjusting to do, probably look at farther out of the money options that have lower initial risk (0.10-0.50 instead of 0.50-2.00). I'm not sure on timing, but so far over a week to hold the position seems to give it a little more time for success right now. I need more actual data to support that though.
edit: I realized I might be playing this too conservatively. I think I'm settling for doubles or triples only and not really looking at home runs with my thought process. I'm going try something different.
I grabbed nflx Jun 15 $400 calls at 0.75 to test out these momentum moves in the higher beta stocks for home run trades. Like I said, I've been aiming too conservatively and looking at home runs in slower stocks. We'll see how this plays out in 2 days. I also like GS here on a possible home run play using yesterday's fomc announcement as the event for GS.
SP500 is "possibly" starting to break its 400ma (micro) uptrend on 5 minute candles.
SPX Chart below is 10 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points:
SPX Chart below is 10 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points:
are you cashing out? looks like 100% gain already