My trade for the next 5 years

B

bwolinsky

Hey, here's my trade as an investment, not really to trade with:

Buy SSO with 100% of the account. Wait 5 years. I expect it to triple, possibly quadruple.

So far i've risked about 10% from the initial entry to make 200-300%. I consider this cheap risk, but I know probably that most of you wouldn't be into it.
 
If you are looking for a set it and forget it trade DXO would do far better under your scenario of a SP Bull run, as would a basket of commodities or a leveraged commodity fund. Why do you think that the US would outperform China or a basket of Emerging markets? What would happen to rates in your scenario? Many better ways to capitalize on a double in US equities than SSO.
 
Quote from Mvic:

If you are looking for a set it and forget it trade DXO would do far better under your scenario of a SP Bull run, as would a basket of commodities or a leveraged commodity fund. Why do you think that the US would outperform China or a basket of Emerging markets? What would happen to rates in your scenario? Many better ways to capitalize on a double in US equities than SSO.
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I somewhat agree with you there.

Have been eyeing CAF and the SSEC now for a while and trading in and out to get a feel (or take sure profits and supplement my structural losses). Find it interesting it now trades at a premium again to NAV despite such a major loss from its high.

The renmibi = ultimate USD diversification (not really, but sounds good).
 
Quote from Mvic:

If you are looking for a set it and forget it trade DXO would do far better under your scenario of a SP Bull run, as would a basket of commodities or a leveraged commodity fund. Why do you think that the US would outperform China or a basket of Emerging markets? What would happen to rates in your scenario? Many better ways to capitalize on a double in US equities than SSO.
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Some of it is risk. China is a corrupt communist government, and after watching Russia collapse, I'm not at all interested in communist countries, especially after watching my clients get burned by them.

There's a lot less political risk in the US, and that means fundamentals matter more.

Rates? They're near zero? So what's to worry? Rates are going higher over the next five years. I've actually found in a period of rising rates we do better, but generally that's because they're raising them to cool down the economy.
(Don't think that means I'm expecting them to raise rates at the next meeting. The question was over 5 years, but they'll likely lower the rates come Tuesday).
No, I'm just very familiar with the companies in the S&P500, and some of the up and comers that will most likely replace the laggards.
 
Quote from Mvic:

If you are looking for a set it and forget it trade DXO would do far better under your scenario of a SP Bull run, as would a basket of commodities or a leveraged commodity fund. Why do you think that the US would outperform China or a basket of Emerging markets? What would happen to rates in your scenario? Many better ways to capitalize on a double in US equities than SSO.
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Really, DXO is not where I think it's at, but that is one of the triggers I had set in my blog for infrastructure and commodity plays to lead us higher for a period before consumer names come back at www.themarketchatter.blogspot.com
 
Quote from weld1:

i think ur fuckin NUTS
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Very constructive, weld. Well done. Which part didn't you get? The part, as was suggested here, that commodities and infrastructure will take us higher? Or about the fact that the stimulus plans will move us higher? Your pick, and, of course, as someone with such a superb command of the english language you would be able to say why.
 
Quote from robbie380:

why don't you buy TBT instead? it would be a little safer:)
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The point is I want a triple or a four bagger. And I know I'll get it eventually. The 2x leverage was because I didn't want to just buy SPY.
 
Did you guys move the market for me? It seems to be up a bit afterhours. I don't know about the next 3 months, but next 5 YEARS, definitely up, significantly.
 
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