It's playing out:
Tony Crescenzi Blog
Fed Reports Huge Surge in Currency
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/10/2008 11:18 AM EDT
URL:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10441812.html
The Federal Reserve's printing press is rolling. New data released late Thursday by the Federal Reserve indicate that in the week ended Oct. 8, the total amount of currency in circulation increased $8.081 billion to $844.49 billion, the largest weekly increase since the week ended Dec. 27, 2006.
The past week's gain brings the three-week increase to $12 billion, a fast pace given that currency in circulation tends to increase at a rate of just 4% to 5% per year. The past week's gain was Christmas-like in the sense that gains of such magnitude are typically only seen around the Christmas holiday in response to seasonal demands for currency.
The Fed's balance sheet on the whole grew massively again in the latest week, by almost $100 billion to $1.575 trillion, in part because of a $49 billion increase in loans to banks (a near-doubling from the previous week). The Fed's balance sheet has grown massively over the past few months, by about $700 billion, far more than the usual gain of a handful of percentage points per year.
If you believe Milton Friedman's idea that inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon, then you must believe that there will be inflation someday, first in financial assets, and then in the real economy. (That part of the story is a long way off -- the inflation side of the story is probably two or three years away.)
The period ahead of Y2K was the last time there was a surge in the total amount of currency in circulation such as the surge that is under way. If you recall, there was a lunacy about the world falling apart when the millennium arrived. People again feel the world may fall apart, although for a different reason this time.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market, first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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