my theory tested today on goog: options pinning even at earnings

S

scriabinop23

I've long thought options pinning is a more severe phenomenon that occurs on goog. mainly because more trades in options daily than notional value of the stock. Its very unique this way.

here are open interest #s as of last night. 550 is the sweet spot of course. Who wins today? My feeling is the 520 close, judging by that put open interest. the buyers or the sellers of options. Place your bets. Regardless, once IV drops a little this morning, a 1 day straddle might be a good buy.

Options Expiring Fri, Jul 20, 2007
Calls Strike
Price Puts
Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int
GGDGR.X 258.50 0.00 N/A N/A 1 263 290.00 GGDSR.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 1 6
GGDGT.X 244.50 0.00 N/A N/A 10 246 300.00 GGDST.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 1 1
GGDGB.X 238.20 0.00 N/A N/A 9 230 310.00 GGDSB.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 0 101
GGDGD.X 232.20 0.00 N/A N/A 7 415 320.00 GGDSD.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 0 228
GGDGF.X 220.40 0.00 N/A N/A 10 133 330.00 GGDSF.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 0 20
GGDGH.X 209.90 0.00 N/A N/A 10 115 340.00 GGDSH.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 0 252
GGDGJ.X 193.30 0.00 N/A N/A 10 70 350.00 GGDSJ.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 0 212
GGDGL.X 184.60 0.00 N/A N/A 20 109 360.00 GGDSL.X 0.04 0.00 N/A N/A 5 185
GGDGN.X 174.50 0.00 N/A N/A 2 59 370.00 GGDSN.X 0.02 0.00 N/A N/A 5 135
GOPGP.X 149.70 0.00 N/A N/A 16 101 380.00 GOPSP.X 0.06 0.00 N/A N/A 10 277
GOPGR.X 161.00 0.00 N/A N/A 20 75 390.00 GOPSR.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 10 1,063
GOPGT.X 149.80 0.00 N/A N/A 40 218 400.00 GOPST.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 13 1,031
GOPGB.X 132.30 0.00 N/A N/A 10 71 410.00 GOPSB.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 65 914
GOPGD.X 130.70 0.00 N/A N/A 10 439 420.00 GOPSD.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 2 1,194
GOPGF.X 118.40 0.00 N/A N/A 6 255 430.00 GOPSF.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 267 1,973
GOPGH.X 107.83 0.00 N/A N/A 13 359 440.00 GOPSH.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 150 2,017
GOPGJ.X 97.83 0.00 N/A N/A 67 1,076 450.00 GOPSJ.X 0.10 0.00 N/A N/A 731 3,219
GOPGL.X 89.40 0.00 N/A N/A 10 1,267 460.00 GOPSL.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 501 5,377
GOPGG.X 79.40 0.00 N/A N/A 48 1,984 470.00 GOPSG.X 0.18 0.00 N/A N/A 2,194 5,927
GOPGI.X 71.00 0.00 N/A N/A 125 2,690 480.00 GOPSI.X 0.25 0.00 N/A N/A 3,946 10,335
GOPGK.X 56.90 0.00 N/A N/A 87 3,598 490.00 GOPSK.X 0.60 0.00 N/A N/A 5,809 11,843
GOPGO.X 48.00 0.00 N/A N/A 840 3,795 500.00 GOPSO.X 1.10 0.00 N/A N/A 9,320 18,704
GOPGU.X 38.70 0.00 N/A N/A 721 5,019 510.00 GOPSU.X 2.25 0.00 N/A N/A 8,288 13,978
GOPGV.X 32.00 0.00 N/A N/A 2,689 6,950 520.00 GOPSV.X 3.65 0.00 N/A N/A 16,410 24,936
GOPGW.X 23.00 0.00 N/A N/A 2,920 6,664 530.00 GOPSW.X 5.90 0.00 N/A N/A 9,893 16,017
GOPGX.X 17.00 0.00 N/A N/A 5,128 6,568 540.00 GOPSX.X 10.00 0.00 N/A N/A 11,385 16,659
GOPGY.X 11.90 0.00 N/A N/A 12,572 13,509 550.00 GOPSY.X 13.70 0.00 N/A N/A 7,110 10,908
GOPGZ.X 6.30 0.00 N/A N/A 12,204 13,405 560.00 GOPSZ.X 19.00 0.00 N/A N/A 2,420 4,093
GOPGQ.X 4.60 0.00 N/A N/A 10,262 11,842 570.00 GOPSQ.X 27.50 0.00 N/A N/A 638 2,158
GOOGP.X 2.55 0.00 N/A N/A 7,946 10,213 580.00 GOOSP.X 32.20 0.00 N/A N/A 455 1,751
GOOGR.X 1.30 0.00 N/A N/A 8,296 11,340 590.00 GOOSR.X 42.70 0.00 N/A N/A 243 786
GOOGT.X 0.80 0.00 N/A N/A 6,805 12,697 600.00 GOOST.X 51.90 0.00 N/A N/A 18 406
GOOGB.X 0.35 0.00 N/A N/A 3,755 7,088 610.00 GOOSB.X 66.60 0.00 N/A N/A 39 134
GOOGD.X 0.15 0.00 N/A N/A 2,671 4,050 620.00 GOOSD.X 76.30 0.00 N/A N/A 12 584
GOOGF.X 0.10 0.00 N/A N/A 2,063 3,182 630.00 GOOSF.X 80.30 0.00 N/A N/A 26 51
GOOGH.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 1,128 1,191 640.00 GOOSH.X 96.40 0.00 N/A N/A 14 22
GOOGJ.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 255 862 650.00 GOOSJ.X 102.90 0.00 N/A N/A 18 6
GOOGL.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 484 630 660.00 GOOSL.X 111.00 0.00 N/A N/A 54 22

Highlighted options are in-the-money.
 
<B>"A one day straddle might be a good play"</B>

....at what strikes and what month? Aug? Today is the last day of July options.


today, $520-$525 will be a key level because everyone that put on the $550 straddle yesterday, will have their break even around 520 - 525.....so that level will determine who will win that trade, the buyers or the sellers of the 550 atm straddle prior to earnings.
 
Quote from jsmooth:

<B>"A one day straddle might be a good play"</B>

....at what strikes and what month? Aug? Today is the last day of July options.


today, $520-$525 will be a key level because everyone that put on the $550 straddle yesterday, will have their break even around 520 - 525.....so that level will determine who will win that trade, the buyers or the sellers of the 550 atm straddle prior to earnings.
More...

i meant the july straddle... i think too late here.. i bought calls at open and did ok on some scalps.
paid for lost $$ from selling 530 and 520 puts.

but good observation about the july 550 straddle sellers' breakeven. 520 may be destiny.
 
I bought some GOOG Jul 530 calls @ 0.10 for my lotto play. High risk hight reward if it fill the gap. if not it did not cost me much. they r my butterfly!
 
The players in the straddle ( July ) sure as heck better have been trading the stock vs that straddle and not sitting around praying there is a pin in a strike 25 or more away from yesterday.

If you bot that straddle you could have been locking in huge profits buying stock and if you shorted that straddle you better have been in there fronting your negative gamma selling all the way down.

Other then a retail player no one sits with a straddle and prays
 
Quote from zxcv1fu:

My cheap black swan GOOG calls r a loss.

I am surprised AAPL moved up so much in the weak market.
More...


i once bought 'black swan calls' on goog $2.00 away from the money all day a few months ago.. kept scaling in... what a stupid trade. learned my lesson then..

goog is controlled like no other stock. its stock price is a PROXY for its options activity. once you realize that, its easier to stop losing money on this thing.
 
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