My Theory On Predicting Long Term Range Breakout

achilles28 · Dec 15, 2005

Quote from Raystonn:

Ideas are a dime a dozen. Implementing, testing, etc., are where the real work lies. You're asking someone else to do the real work and give you the results?

oh , and the backtest request was made directly after a member posted a message thanking me for sharing my insight.

he later erased his post which is why you dont see it.

terafly · Dec 16, 2005

I don't know anything about the forex market and so can't really comment on the soundness of your hypothesis, but i urge you to find a way to test it out. If you can't backtest it yourself, perhaps you can find someone to help you. Who knows, you may come across something completely unexpected. Good luck.

zf trader · Dec 16, 2005

One of the most interesting things to do is think about what strategy would have worked yesterday. Once you come up with a strategy go look at a chart and see if it would have worked.
It is interesting how much different the markets can behave then how you perceive them

OddTrader · Dec 16, 2005

Quote from achilles28:

oh , and the backtest request was made directly after a member posted a message thanking me for sharing my insight.

he later erased his post which is why you dont see it.

I would like to clarify that the post that was deleted/ erased by myself contained merely/ only two words "Thank you.".

Quote from achilles28:

y did u erase ur post oddtradeR?

nononsense · Dec 16, 2005

Quote from achilles28:

Im not sure its the holy grail.

But it could be useful for indicating when a definite range bound market is occuring and when it will likely end.

A possible good filter and/or entry trigger for one hell of a mean-reversion system is all

I guess thats what u refferring to - mean reversion possibilities.

Seriously, what do u think of this idea

I dunno either, seriously.
In fact what are the minimum requirements for a method to qualify as THE HOLY GRAIL?

nono

late apex · Dec 16, 2005

Perhaps exactly the same requirements as for "Infinite Wealth" (Van Tharp / Robert Kiyosaki). It's in the eye of the beholder; different for everyone. Seriously.

achilles28 · Dec 16, 2005

Quote from OddTrader:

I would like to clarify that the post that was deleted/ erased by myself contained merely/ only two words "Thank you.".

1) Isn't that what I said? "a member posted a message thanking me for sharing my insight. "

2) Y did you erase your initial post?

Obviously you see some merit in the idea? Y are you afraid to discuss it?

Wtf do i care? Like you said, most people on this site, lurking or posting, don't have the patience, inclination, foresight or plain curiousity to pursue an idea like this. In theory or practise.

So why should anyone feel threatened?

achilles28 · Dec 16, 2005

Quote from nononsense:

I dunno either, seriously.
In fact what are the minimum requirements for a method to qualify as THE HOLY GRAIL?

nono

Im not saying it is by any stretch. Oddtrader made the inference. Whether he is being factious or not, possibly half factious - I really don't know.

All i know is theory may have some merit. Whether one can pull any utility out of it could make the difference between it being a dog or the grail.

I agree with Lateapex - depends on the person.

That being said. You think the theory is bs? Holds anything of relevance? Where does it fall down? What are its weaknesses?

illiquid · Dec 16, 2005

The problem is either markets overshoot despite a turn in fundamentals, or they anticipate the fundamentals and begin turning far earlier than the statistics will show.

So basically, you're back to square one in predicting a range breakout -- sometimes a breakout will work, sometimes it fails and goes out the other side.

nononsense · Dec 16, 2005

Quote from achilles28:

Im not saying it is by any stretch. Oddtrader made the inference. Whether he is being factious or not, possibly half factious - I really don't know.

All i know is theory may have some merit. Whether one can pull any utility out of it could make the difference between it being a dog or the grail.

I agree with Lateapex - depends on the person.

That being said. You think the theory is bs? Holds anything of relevance? Where does it fall down? What are its weaknesses?

Your theory seems plausible to me. As I do no Forex, I wouldn't know whether this might help in making money.