My Supply and Demand Foundation. Thoughts?

B

BobbiDigital

Hey guys, still grinding away here in soon to be lovely Chicago.

I'm trying to better understand how volatility works. (any 'advanced' reading material that goes along with the attached would be appreciated) If you were to infer a larger timeframe based on 1 market segment do you expand in both directions (and time) equally or use which ever unbroken high/low as an anchor and extend diagonally in the opposite direction? I have been using 2 X current bar range but it gets very large quickly. Best to add t+1 bar after it closes?

Also, thoughts or reading material how to quantify 50% equilibrium vs. bar close (rarely 50%). Seems this would gauge the position of market participants per market segment.

Thanks. PM's welcome as well as this is good stuff but just the tip of the iceberg.

BD
 
BD

Not sure what you’re searching for / trying to accomplish.., but here’s my take

Volatility.., imo doesn’t work – and is usually a bitch to trade

It is a condition, which materializes in a few ways;

Significantly overlapping successive bars

Long bar(s) – against the most recent move

A range – covered by 1 or 2 bars in both directions

It occurs when;

Typically @ open

Typically after ~ 3:15 once volume has left

A back and forth fight is occurring – volume present.., but no clear control – (both sides fighting for control)

Low volume times – and price is being whipped about – to screw everyone (lunch time comes to mind as a typically reoccurring instance)

eta - it typically also occurs when the big boys are taking a position and price being constrained / not allowed to get away

==============

A “50%” level you refer to – is more of a way to gauge strength/ weakness

The close – is the agreed upon price for that time period / bar interval

Two entirely separate things – again – imo


Not sure I've been any help

RN
 
RN,

what I am trying to accomplish is extending trendlines, based on a small timeframe, to how that would look on a larger timeframe (in the future but at the present moment) i.e. here's what price is doing if it continues it will be here and if not here's where it's shifting.

So if there is a 10 tic range bar on a 5 minute at the end of 30 minutes if each bar extended 10 tics it would be up 10 X 6 (30/5) = 60 tics. These would be your extremes thus allowing you to infer future prices based on current 'small bar' This of course means nothing as it plays out but I am trying to correctly anchor it (mathematically) and dont understand the greeks very well. Should a range extension higher factor in an equal range extension lower or does that low price remain the base (how does volatility work?)

Either way, I come in peace and it's good to talk a little shop.
BD
 
BobbiDigital said:
RN,
Either way, I come in peace and it's good to talk a little shop.

BD
More...


I know that…. I also appreciate how tough the journey's been

Just realize when I don’t respond – its because I have nothing of value / nor do I want to keep saying no.. no…, no / nor do I want to perpetuate what I see as a false direction

:)

====================

When you mention greeks – I immediately think options… and I know diddly about options

If at some point you want to explore extrapolating out TL’s both length and width wise – I’m in

In the meantime – I’ll stand down…, maybe someone will chime in who can assist

Success Sir

RN
 
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