Originally posted by Kevmeister
Did I form an opinion about exactly what the market was gonna do. YES
This is a classic, The old mix-the-time-frame devil of the stock market. The OPINION factor.
Kev, thanks for sharing this story. It has all the elements that make many successful traders blow out. And many on this forum touched on the different aspects and factors of discipline, risk management etc. What I find fascinating about your story is that you had no plan other than to buy an oversold market and see where it takes you. I have done this in the past and although I knew better, I still thought that I was smarter than the market, and we all know what happens next ...
My suggestion to all traders is to remember that traders do not predict markets - they react to them. In other words, there is no room for OPINIONS while trading. Investors can predict and have opinions. Traders cannot!
In this thread
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2254 I mentioned an article that helped me make a lot of money this last year. What I failed to mention is that this article also saved me a lot of money, because my nature in the past would have been to have an opinion on the market, such as, the market cannot go down any lower and buy and hold stocks (losers).
Because of this article, I decided to trade with the market. I played both sides. I reacted to the market and did not try to predict it. I made about 60% of the money from swing trading both long and short and 40% of the money from intraday trading mostly on the short side.
Another lesson I learned about OPINION was from Brandon Fredrickson (while a member of his chat room). Brandon used to trade futures. He was long a bunch of contracts and the underlying went down below cost of production. He always said, "in my widest dreams I did not expect it to go below the cost of production." He got blown out. I remember him telling us this in his chat room in 2000. While everyone wanted him to call the bottom, he kept saying, "it can go much lower, the trend is down and we should be short." He learned the lesson from the futures market and his story and guidance helped many stay in business.
So, no more opinions as far as my trading goes and I have it posted on all three of my monitors.
Good Trading
Bill