My result on a demo account

[epic767]

Quote from hans37:

Yes but you said your accounts blew out 4/6 times in parallel.

Could you still be that way on you 5th try with blowing out your account the previous 4 times in sequence in under 40 hrs?

hmmm I think you expect too much of yourself.

I didnt care which price direction the currency had.

The only thing I took into account was volatility, when determining what I should buy, assuming that there is a 50% chance of the currency going up and 50% going down. And for how long a trend last before it heads toward the opposite direction.

If the average trend is either up or down 1% for 1 hour interval, my win ratio is 2:1, since I will lose my whole account value when the currency has dropped by a half percent using 200:1 leverage.

So my strategy will be more beneficial the more volatile the currency is. If the average going up is 4% for one day interval, then my ratio win ratio is 8:1. I would however then have to lower my leverage because the currency might be more likely to zigzag up to 4%.

So If, I try to predict which direction the currency will head towards to, I think I would get at least 60% winners and 40% losers.

 

[hans37]

Quote from epic767:

I didnt care which price direction the currency had.

The only thing I took into account was volatility, when determining what I should buy, assuming that there is a 50% chance of the currency going up and 50% going down. And for how long a trend last before it heads toward the opposite direction.

If the average trend is either up or down 1% for 1 hour interval, my win ratio is 2:1, since I will lose my whole account value when the currency has dropped by a half percent using 200:1 leverage.

So my strategy will be more beneficial the more volatile the currency is. If the average going up is 4% for one day interval, then my ratio win ratio is 8:1. I would however then have to lower my leverage because the currency might be more likely to zigzag up to 4%.

So If, I try to predict which direction the currency will head towards to, I think I would get at least 60% winners and 40% losers.

You appear to be comparing apples to oranges, best of luck to you .

 

[epic767]

Quote from hans37:

You appear to be comparing apples to oranges, best of luck to you .

Its kinda obvious you have to change a lot of the calculations going from one hour interval to one day. But that maybe wasnt obvious to you?

 

[hans37]

Quote from epic767:

Its kinda obvious you have to change a lot of the calculations going from one hour interval to one day. But that maybe wasnt obvious to you?

What's obvious is that you do not plan to trade your real account like your demo and you think blowing out 4 times in a row will not affect your psychology.

step back and think about it for a minute

 

[Onsite-Traders]

Quote from epic767:

Why wouldnt the same results be achieveable on a real account?

If I buy currencies for real live prices, with real life settings, why why why wouldnt it work =)

thanks for the realistic post....thread....

I thought this was another shill thread,

you know,

a supposedly believable person, fronting like they actually did something, hoping that people will contact them,,,,

iow, another sales job

 

[TWMPMM]

You seem to imply that psychology is not an issue for you. The fact that you are concerned about the opinions of the members of this forum proves that it is.

 

[tomcole]

epic-- Its just my simple-minded opinion. With your enviable track record, perhaps an idea is to take every penny you can beg, borrow or steal and trade it. You seem confident that you will make millions very quickly.

I am humbled by your trading prowess, as I should be.

 

[epic767]

Well, I will do try this with 1000 dollar in about 2 months when I get the money, and we will just see what happens.

You guys, might be right, that its not an enviable strategy, and if Im right and can double my money by 4 times, every 40 hours like I did, i will be more than happy.


Only time will tell =)

By the way how many times is it possible to double the money? I mean, there has to be a stop somewhere.

 

[epic767]

Quote from TWMPMM:

You seem to imply that psychology is not an issue for you. The fact that you are concerned about the opinions of the members of this forum proves that it is.

Not really. Im just a little bit impressed by the amazing 4 double return. Especially since ive been trading in the stock market for 2 months, only averaging abiut 3% every week.

I might be to impatient, but Im not going to wait 6 months before Ive doubled the money. And by the way, its definately worth risking 1000 dollar, if I can make 4000 dollar, if there is a 50% chance losing or winning.

And I was just unlucky who got 4 losses and 2 wins if we assume the chance to win was 50% and a loss 50%. So in a real account, I would just diversify more, maybe only putting 500 dollar, on each trade when I have 10 000 dollar, to get closer to the mean and kill the impact from any irregularities.

 

[epic767]

Quote from hans37:

What's obvious is that you do not plan to trade your real account like your demo and you think blowing out 4 times in a row will not affect your psychology.

step back and think about it for a minute

Well, I traded all accounts almost at the same time, So there is nothing like 4 times a row. Its stupid to do one trade and see if I win or not, and then wait and trade the other one. Thats, not being efficient with your assets, and yes, it would affect your psychology more to see 4 consecutive losses, than to see 4 losses and two wins at the same time, because you know the win ratio is higher.