My proof that the market is not random
- Thread starter kandlekid
- Start date
Everyone knows the market isn't random... It's a cycling repeating game.
Everyone knows when were in a rally. The only question is who can time the best moment to jump off before the cliff is reached. Those left holding the bag lose. Those that jump off before the top and buy when the masses are scared and running every direction in panic win.
Here is my proof that the market is not random. A picture is worth a thousand words... If the market was random these technical indicators would NOT look like this... LoL!!! They would look like random noise... A market that repeatedly rises for 20 or so weeks in a row then destabilizes and jumps off a cliff is not random .
Everyone knows when were in a rally. The only question is who can time the best moment to jump off before the cliff is reached. Those left holding the bag lose. Those that jump off before the top and buy when the masses are scared and running every direction in panic win.
Here is my proof that the market is not random. A picture is worth a thousand words... If the market was random these technical indicators would NOT look like this... LoL!!! They would look like random noise... A market that repeatedly rises for 20 or so weeks in a row then destabilizes and jumps off a cliff is not random .
You are all wrong, you are so wrong and far off that I don't even think ....whatever.
The good news and bad news.
Good news ===> honest to god, you do not have to know the fundamental truth about the market in order to trade profitably
Bad News ===> If I proved to you 100% mathematically that market is indeed random I would be giving up my methods.
But I can drop a gem for the smarty ones among you, within non random distribution, market is random.
I think this is my last post, this site is a real waste of my time, you have been informed, entertained, educated by the one named COLD
see ya
buy bullion, for gods sake, protect yourself
The good news and bad news.
Good news ===> honest to god, you do not have to know the fundamental truth about the market in order to trade profitably
Bad News ===> If I proved to you 100% mathematically that market is indeed random I would be giving up my methods.
But I can drop a gem for the smarty ones among you, within non random distribution, market is random.
I think this is my last post, this site is a real waste of my time, you have been informed, entertained, educated by the one named COLD
see ya
buy bullion, for gods sake, protect yourself
To be fair though there is another way of looking at it...
Random is what you call it when you don't have all of the information...
From my point of view information always decreases randomness. Let's say that you know banker "Mr. X" is going to sell 1 Billion EUR at 10:00 A.M. tomorrow... And you know this because you overheard Mr. X when you were having lunch together at the same restaurant because he was talking loudly on his phone while sitting at the next table.
Now... When that big down candle shows up at 10:00 A.M. everyone will say... "Man... didn't see it coming! Markets are so fucking random!"....
Ahhh... But you did see it coming...! Because you had the "information" so it made perfect sense to you!
Now if you can always get lucky like that and get information like that all the time, markets will never be random for you!
Random is what you call it when you don't have all of the information...
From my point of view information always decreases randomness. Let's say that you know banker "Mr. X" is going to sell 1 Billion EUR at 10:00 A.M. tomorrow... And you know this because you overheard Mr. X when you were having lunch together at the same restaurant because he was talking loudly on his phone while sitting at the next table.
Now... When that big down candle shows up at 10:00 A.M. everyone will say... "Man... didn't see it coming! Markets are so fucking random!"....
Ahhh... But you did see it coming...! Because you had the "information" so it made perfect sense to you!
Now if you can always get lucky like that and get information like that all the time, markets will never be random for you!
The market is efficient, and can't be beaten.
:eek:
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I'll translate for stock777:
There is an illusion of random because there are many paradoxes and facts that are integral to professional gambling or trading.
Fact one: No one can predict the future correctly 100% of the time (see fact two).
Fact two: The fact is that the individual outcome of a particular bet is independent of any prior bet. Most people would say this implies random. However, if you posses an edge, then the collective outcome of a series of bets over time will produce certain knowable results.
To say that the market is half assed analysis!
What you're saying is true... But do you ever really posses an edge...? It's set up as a "negative sum" game through its structure... You pay the spread plus commission so structurally you're never 50/50... Now how can you really have an edge...?
Most will answer that you can have a betting edge... That is if you can get it right 7/10 times then you have an edge which you can repeat. BUT you will never have a "structural edge" that is... the market odds will always be against you!
So... How long will your "edge" last...? They're always finite and limited...! People who figure this out usually make money...