Okay, I've hit on a scalping method that shows some promise. I use a 3 tick stop and 3 tick target. I can never move my stop (out) but can move my target. Treat it like a binary options.. I basically play volume node to volume node. I share a lot about volume nodes in my newsletter but these are micro nodes and they appear to work similar to what I'm used oto. Still too early to tell this can work... But I think not moving the stop out is important because the profits are so small. probably need a discount broker..
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My Path To Success
- Thread starter Lucias
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I ran some calculations and even though I was making consistent profits before costs on the simulator (scalping). I wasn't making much after costs and that was factoring in Deep Discount Trading rates. My best systems can average up to $100 per contract but it requires taking a high risk. Day trading, I estimate I can average $15 to $30 per contract. But scalping? It could drop to $5 to $12.
I'll continue to work with it and also I will update my live money results in the future.
I'm pretty sure I'm closing my discretionary C2 account but not my system based account. This will free me to focus on my real money results.
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I'll continue to work with it and also I will update my live money results in the future.
I'm pretty sure I'm closing my discretionary C2 account but not my system based account. This will free me to focus on my real money results.
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I'm not going to talk about my p&l here or specific trades. I might mention my P&L when I've made 100% or at the end-of-year. I don't have a big return goal. I anticipate that I will do 50% to 300% if I can stay in the game. My main goal is just to stay in the game, though. The best part is I'm doing it my way. And finally have chance of making a profit for me vs making pennies for offering subscriptions.
I recently "juiced" a 10x leveraged futures trade by combining it with a NADEX binary.
Honestly, part of the reason was that I wanted to see why it was so hard for me to make money on these NADEX binaries. The reason is that I was willing to give up like 1 or 2 point of edge and the reality is you have to give up more like 3-4 point to get filled.
I do like their products though. Service is good. The products are really nice.. Problem is they just aren't competitive enough as currently priced. If they could make a really competitive product then I might not be trading futures now.
A $50 binary has $2 commission fee = reduces edge by 2%. And, then the spread is $4-$6 or another 4%-6% = 6% to 8% reduction. So, you have to win 58% of the time to break even. I estimate the true FV to be around 52.5%-55%. I really want to see them succeed. The only way they can do that though is to become a lot more competitive, in my opinion.
But yes, I was trying out the possibility of combining those products with my 1 lot to see what was possible. They open the possibility to create some limited downside protection and the ability to "juice" a trade. Let's say you think a trade will be worth 5 points but might be worth 10. In futures, its a risk to give back all profits to make more. But with binaries.. it is possible to go for the bigger payoff with less risk. This would be if everything was efficient, of course.
The other way one can use them is to create a profit profile that has some of benefits of averaging down but less of the risk. Averaging down when leveraged in futures is terrible. But with risk limited product then its not nearly as unattractive... you don't have to worry about stop outs.
Again my goal is just to trade at my best and stay in the game because I enjoy it. I kinda know what I can expect if I manage to do that...
I'm not going to talk about my account size but I expect to be able to add some more to it soon. When I opened it, it was everything I had access too. In a few months.. I'll be able to have a savings separate from it which will help a lot..
I recently "juiced" a 10x leveraged futures trade by combining it with a NADEX binary.
Honestly, part of the reason was that I wanted to see why it was so hard for me to make money on these NADEX binaries. The reason is that I was willing to give up like 1 or 2 point of edge and the reality is you have to give up more like 3-4 point to get filled.
I do like their products though. Service is good. The products are really nice.. Problem is they just aren't competitive enough as currently priced. If they could make a really competitive product then I might not be trading futures now.
A $50 binary has $2 commission fee = reduces edge by 2%. And, then the spread is $4-$6 or another 4%-6% = 6% to 8% reduction. So, you have to win 58% of the time to break even. I estimate the true FV to be around 52.5%-55%. I really want to see them succeed. The only way they can do that though is to become a lot more competitive, in my opinion.
But yes, I was trying out the possibility of combining those products with my 1 lot to see what was possible. They open the possibility to create some limited downside protection and the ability to "juice" a trade. Let's say you think a trade will be worth 5 points but might be worth 10. In futures, its a risk to give back all profits to make more. But with binaries.. it is possible to go for the bigger payoff with less risk. This would be if everything was efficient, of course.
The other way one can use them is to create a profit profile that has some of benefits of averaging down but less of the risk. Averaging down when leveraged in futures is terrible. But with risk limited product then its not nearly as unattractive... you don't have to worry about stop outs.
Again my goal is just to trade at my best and stay in the game because I enjoy it. I kinda know what I can expect if I manage to do that...
I'm not going to talk about my account size but I expect to be able to add some more to it soon. When I opened it, it was everything I had access too. In a few months.. I'll be able to have a savings separate from it which will help a lot..
Of course, one thing that helps me immensely are those who think that simulated trading isn't beneficial (no offense Gary). My belief is that its like anything else.. if conducted over a reasonably long period of time, in very realistic conditions, and with a self-honesty it works.. it really works. That's my opinion.
Of course, I've heard others like Don Bright made some ironic statements too. For example, he's stated that backtesting is worthless and yet he's also stated that his best traders are using automated programs. Beats me how they make automated systems and run them without any idea how they will work.. lol And Mr. Brights opinion is not unique.
So, now we have it from the "experts" that neither can you practice and learn to trade (without risking own money) NOR can you develop a system.. lol.. no wonder so many people fail! You're not allowed to practice or have a system according to the experts.
You see, the truth is that there is some truth in these sentiments. No, you won't become a world class discretionary trader (the kind of ability I've developed) by trading a system. And no trading on the simulator doesn't FEEL the same as trading with live money on line but that doesn't mean its worthless. It is true the market does change rapidly and requires some adjusting too.
So, there is some truth in what most people believe.. don't get me wrong.. its just not the truth. The truth is that experience in any endeavor has a lot to do with success.
In my newsletter, I've told my students/readers/subscribers that what YOU believe has a great amount to do with whether it is valuable. If you BELIEVE that trading on the simulator is valuable then it will be. If you believe that its not then it wont be.. If you believe that a system can be built and offers useful information then it may help you.. If you don't then it wont. You have to believe it though.
A good example, I ran all my discretionary trades into Tradestation using my Clone System and then I was able to optimize my discretionary trading. Some people would dismiss such activity as useless. But it provided very useful guidelines for me that later helped me to improve my performance.
It is true that I had focused and put too much into my hypothetical record vs trading real money.. that's true.
Of course, I've heard others like Don Bright made some ironic statements too. For example, he's stated that backtesting is worthless and yet he's also stated that his best traders are using automated programs. Beats me how they make automated systems and run them without any idea how they will work.. lol And Mr. Brights opinion is not unique.
So, now we have it from the "experts" that neither can you practice and learn to trade (without risking own money) NOR can you develop a system.. lol.. no wonder so many people fail! You're not allowed to practice or have a system according to the experts.
You see, the truth is that there is some truth in these sentiments. No, you won't become a world class discretionary trader (the kind of ability I've developed) by trading a system. And no trading on the simulator doesn't FEEL the same as trading with live money on line but that doesn't mean its worthless. It is true the market does change rapidly and requires some adjusting too.
So, there is some truth in what most people believe.. don't get me wrong.. its just not the truth. The truth is that experience in any endeavor has a lot to do with success.
In my newsletter, I've told my students/readers/subscribers that what YOU believe has a great amount to do with whether it is valuable. If you BELIEVE that trading on the simulator is valuable then it will be. If you believe that its not then it wont be.. If you believe that a system can be built and offers useful information then it may help you.. If you don't then it wont. You have to believe it though.
A good example, I ran all my discretionary trades into Tradestation using my Clone System and then I was able to optimize my discretionary trading. Some people would dismiss such activity as useless. But it provided very useful guidelines for me that later helped me to improve my performance.
It is true that I had focused and put too much into my hypothetical record vs trading real money.. that's true.
Come back down to earth.
Either you have a edge, or you don't.
Either you're making money, or you're not.
The endless pontification, banter and "newsletters" are nothing but elaborate rationalizations for your non performance.
You need to get down to the work of making money and stop posting your random musings dressed up as market "insight".
If your insight had any value, you'd be able to make a buck off it by now. But you can't...because it has no value.
Stop kidding yourself. Find an edge.
Either you have a edge, or you don't.
Either you're making money, or you're not.
The endless pontification, banter and "newsletters" are nothing but elaborate rationalizations for your non performance.
You need to get down to the work of making money and stop posting your random musings dressed up as market "insight".
If your insight had any value, you'd be able to make a buck off it by now. But you can't...because it has no value.
Stop kidding yourself. Find an edge.
Quote from Lucias:
A $50 binary has $2 commission fee = reduces edge by 2%. And, then the spread is $4-$6 or another 4%-6% = 6% to 8% reduction. So, you have to win 58% of the time to break even. I estimate the true FV to be around 52.5%-55%. I really want to see them succeed. The only way they can do that though is to become a lot more competitive, in my opinion.
You must be a mathematician.
Achilles28..
First this whole idea of edge is partially misplaced. Sure, I have edges but I can do just as much with my "market read" which I place far greater value on and to that I can sympthasize with Don's view. However, you don't get that just jumping in the market.. That's something that develops over time.
I'm a bit like my mentor Gary Smith in that respect. Part of me doesn't believe in edges... The only people who really have an edge are the brokers or those working for the MAN. The rest of us have possibilities.. possibilities that's all. Now I say part of me.. a lot of people understand PART of the game. They manage to build trading systems and run them or they manage to trade using their discretion and make that work. I've been able to make both work.. part of what guides is this notion of combining my incredible talent and ability with a more technological advantage.. And that in itself is a big part.. a huge part of my motivation. I've basically taken Dr. Steenbarger's idea of performance improvement but I believe that instead of psychology.. the means to do that is technological.
My newsletter is actually something that has become more then what I thought it would be. Originally, it was just designed to make some money doing something that helped my performance in the past. There isn't nothing "to my newsletter" except I break down my trades. I chose an activity that I would have to do or that would benefit me anyway.. synergistic.
But actually its grown it something now where that actually is something beyond because for the first time I'm actually sharing what I know. Everything I've kept secret. I haven't my greatest secrets.. probably never will but it feels really good to be able to share actually with people who are interested in what I have to say. And be able to share something and that is satisfying.
I don't report to anybody in my trading. That's the thing. So why should anyone else care how I'm doing? You that's what it's all about. And people can't get that. I don't need your approval. I don't work for you. I don't report to you. So you can think whatever you want.
Nobody cares because now I'm my own boss in this one aspect of my life. And, maybe my 6k account is tiny compared to your million dollar account but this whole Earth tiny compared to the vastness of space. Again, insignificant.. People they want to trade and not have a boss but no boss then no judge then no one to care how well do. And, I'll take it.. and I'll enjoy it. No more deceptions.
And for those who want to blow.. blow all you want.. and those want to cast shadows then cast shadows. And those who want to say you're fat.. you're hair isn't combed.. I'm just happy to have food. Just happy to have hair. I'm just happy to be alive... just happy to be able to connect to the source. That's the lesson.
First this whole idea of edge is partially misplaced. Sure, I have edges but I can do just as much with my "market read" which I place far greater value on and to that I can sympthasize with Don's view. However, you don't get that just jumping in the market.. That's something that develops over time.
I'm a bit like my mentor Gary Smith in that respect. Part of me doesn't believe in edges... The only people who really have an edge are the brokers or those working for the MAN. The rest of us have possibilities.. possibilities that's all. Now I say part of me.. a lot of people understand PART of the game. They manage to build trading systems and run them or they manage to trade using their discretion and make that work. I've been able to make both work.. part of what guides is this notion of combining my incredible talent and ability with a more technological advantage.. And that in itself is a big part.. a huge part of my motivation. I've basically taken Dr. Steenbarger's idea of performance improvement but I believe that instead of psychology.. the means to do that is technological.
My newsletter is actually something that has become more then what I thought it would be. Originally, it was just designed to make some money doing something that helped my performance in the past. There isn't nothing "to my newsletter" except I break down my trades. I chose an activity that I would have to do or that would benefit me anyway.. synergistic.
But actually its grown it something now where that actually is something beyond because for the first time I'm actually sharing what I know. Everything I've kept secret. I haven't my greatest secrets.. probably never will but it feels really good to be able to share actually with people who are interested in what I have to say. And be able to share something and that is satisfying.
I don't report to anybody in my trading. That's the thing. So why should anyone else care how I'm doing? You that's what it's all about. And people can't get that. I don't need your approval. I don't work for you. I don't report to you. So you can think whatever you want.
Nobody cares because now I'm my own boss in this one aspect of my life. And, maybe my 6k account is tiny compared to your million dollar account but this whole Earth tiny compared to the vastness of space. Again, insignificant.. People they want to trade and not have a boss but no boss then no judge then no one to care how well do. And, I'll take it.. and I'll enjoy it. No more deceptions.
And for those who want to blow.. blow all you want.. and those want to cast shadows then cast shadows. And those who want to say you're fat.. you're hair isn't combed.. I'm just happy to have food. Just happy to have hair. I'm just happy to be alive... just happy to be able to connect to the source. That's the lesson.
Quote from achilles28:
Come back down to earth.
Either you have a edge, or you don't.
Either you're making money, or you're not.
The endless pontification, banter and "newsletters" are nothing but elaborate rationalizations for your non performance.
You need to get down to the work of making money and stop posting your random musings dressed up as market "insight".
If your insight had any value, you'd be able to make a buck off it by now. But you can't.
truth be told!Quote from achilles28:
Come back down to earth.
Either you have a edge, or you don't.
Either you're making money, or you're not.
The endless pontification, banter and "newsletters" are nothing but elaborate rationalizations for your non performance.
You need to get down to the work of making money and stop posting your random musings dressed up as market "insight".
If your insight had any value, you'd be able to make a buck off it by now. But you can't...because it has no value.
Stop kidding yourself. Find an edge.
Quote from Lucias:
Achilles28..
First this whole idea of edge is partially misplaced. Sure, I have edges but I can do just as much with my "market read" which I place far greater value on and to that I can sympthasize with Don's view. However, you don't get that just jumping in the market.. That's something that develops over time.
I'm a bit like my mentor Gary Smith in that respect. Part of me doesn't believe in edges... The only people who really have an edge are the brokers or those working for the MAN. The rest of us have possibilities.. possibilities that's all. Now I say part of me.. a lot of people understand PART of the game. They manage to build trading systems and run them or they manage to trade using their discretion and make that work. I've been able to make both work.. part of what guides is this notion of combining my incredible talent and ability with a more technological advantage.. And that in itself is a big part.. a huge part of my motivation. I've basically taken Dr. Steenbarger's idea of performance improvement but I believe that instead of psychology.. the means to do that is technological.
My newsletter is actually something that has become more then what I thought it would be. Originally, it was just designed to make some money doing something that helped my performance in the past. There isn't nothing "to my newsletter" except I break down my trades. I chose an activity that I would have to do or that would benefit me anyway.. synergistic.
But actually its grown it something now where that actually is something beyond because for the first time I'm actually sharing what I know. Everything I've kept secret. I haven't my greatest secrets.. probably never will but it feels really good to be able to share actually with people who are interested in what I have to say. And be able to share something and that is satisfying.
I don't report to anybody in my trading. That's the thing. So why should anyone else care how I'm doing? You that's what it's all about. And people can't get that. I don't need your approval. I don't work for you. I don't report to you. So you can think whatever you want.
Nobody cares because now I'm my own boss in this one aspect of my life. And, maybe my 6k account is tiny compared to your million dollar account but this whole Earth tiny compared to the vastness of space. Again, insignificant.. People they want to trade and not have a boss but no boss then no judge then no one to care how well do. And, I'll take it.. and I'll enjoy it. No more deceptions.
And for those who want to blow.. blow all you want.. and those want to cast shadows then cast shadows. And those who want to say you're fat.. you're hair isn't combed.. I'm just happy to have food. Just happy to have hair. I'm just happy to be alive... just happy to be able to connect to the source. That's the lesson.
If you spent as much time studying charts, as you do trying to convince everyone how smart you are, you'd have an edge by now. Yes, I said *edge*. You don't know what you're talking about. Nor does your mentor. Ironic, that your mentor doesn't have an edge and his prodigy sells a newsletter without showing a profit. Blind leading the blind. Just because marks pay for your advice doesn't mean you're fit to give it. And don't confuse us for your subscribers - some people here actually know what they're doing. Trading is about performance. Not hot air. You got the later mastered and figure it makes up for the nonexistent bankroll. As far as "market read", if you could read the market, it would show in your PnL. See? You're just fooling yourself. And you know it. I figure you post more to aggrandize your gigantic ego, than to actually talk about (or improve) your trading. Get beyond this delusion you're god. Open an account, with real money, and PROVE how much you know. The market is a great teacher and will humble your arrogant ass, promptly. At which point, you can start to *begin* the process of learning. I recognize this post is rather harsh, but I'm actually doing you a favor.
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