My Path To Success

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My original account I started here was real money. I am risking way more then I ever did in my hypothetical: I was max at 5x leverage. I will be at 10x leverage. I was previously at 30x-40x leverage in my real money. The difference you may be noticing is that my sub/system had about 60k-80k so I was trading several contracts. I was risking 3% max per day. I will be risking 10% max per day. I'm not too happy with it but I can't "gear" any lower and even if I could the returns might not be worth bothering with,

One thing that maybe wasn't clear is that I was recording the max risk per trade which was the total spread cost to my account. In most cases, it was a low probability for me to get hit with total loss. Likewise, in the futures when I risk large amounts I avoid historically taking the hits. I often found my futures account realized less risk trading 5 contracts then my NADEX account because of my skill.

If I had stayed with the program last year.. I would have returned easily 100% just on my system trades. I exited right at worst down spot. But I don't regret it because I had money hardships outside the market. I don't regret it at all.

The estimate I give is just extrapolated from my historical returns. The numbers were just pulled from what I historically have been able to do when adjusted for the increased leverage.

Thanks for realizing I'm honest..

Lucias, many are not cut out to trade real money because of their risk tolerances. In your case, you were swinging for the fences with your make believe money account but now with real money on the line you are a different and very fearing low risk tolerant animal. $600 to $1500 a month is a far cry from your Pollyanna aspirations in your make believe account. Regardless, I give you an "A+" for honesty, a trait few on this forum seem to possess.
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This is a good question. I don't believe in setups... well except when I do. I trade multiple paradigms and methodologies. I have about 3-4 discretionary methodologies and one operational system and several "proto-systems".

My discretionary styles are distinct and clear to me but they are broken down into those that use real-time data and those that don't:

1. Predictions: These are made in advance. Real-time data is not very important. This used to be my B&B.
2. Momentum plays/Day plays: I call the direction for the day and shoot for big swings. The goal is to hold until the EOD. My goal is to offer the unfair price. At times, I would even hold these for an extra day.
3. Measured moves/"market making": The goal is to take out measured/micro moves. I am always offering "fair prices". I would not hold these overnight, if possible. This is my current method. One difficulty with this method when trading a 1 lot though is that typically I like to put a position on to get a feel for it. The position is usually very small and then I add to it or take it off. So, there are some tricks to make this method work which may prove more difficult for me in my RM account until I can trade multiple lots.

Of course, I do have specific setups but its really not the way I think about the market. I'm trying to figure out where it is going. I want to know whats the main influence on the market.

Trading for trends tends to be most efficient. However, I can leverage more contracts when trading #3 style and have grown to prefer it better. The momentum trading tends to require bigger swings. I'm not as fond of that.

Quote from ocean5:

Lucias,did you trade one setup only or several?
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You seek knowns? But, to prophet is to deal in unknowns. To P R o F i t is to deal in unknowns.

You seek success? But to fail is human. Thus to be successful, is to be unhuman.

You seek certainty? Certainty is fruitless. To be fruitful, is to deal in uncertainty.

You want answers.. why don't you answer how you manage to walk across this Earth. That would be a first step, haha the first of many steps. You want your freedom then have your freedom, over everything you control. Oh and as for everything else, you had best to known the equations.

You ask why this journal does not benefit you. Perhaps because it was not made for you.

You think you're making of fun of me. But, you're just making noise. Can music exist without noise? Can harmony exist without discord? Can my i-dea exist with your disbelief? I ask.
 
I've been very successful in predicting the market in advance. I've been very successful in day trading the market. I typically only trade the morning session and use large stops. I size larger on my best trades.

I've thought a lot about betting methods. There is basically 2 camps: big big and small bet. Small bet is a statistical betting style that aims to take out many small profits from the market. It is based on an abundant number of opportunities of low quality. Big bet is based on taking advantage of rare opportunity. The fact the opportunity is rare requires that one places larger bets to get value.

I know that I'd prefer to trade small bet. I don't like betting big but its the only thing that I've found that works. The small bet traders in the markets tend to be quants trading hundreds of instruments. They have more opportunity. In the future, I might try such methods. But now its not a possibility and in reality, my discretionary trading must always be a big part of my trading or its not worth it.

These are the things I've found that works for me

* Predicting market in advance
* Trading the morning session with large stop (can average up to 1% per day with around 3% stop, I'd say 17% probability of stop hit or less)
* Trading until I hit 1% and then quitting.
* Swing trading

I've been successful with every form of general/directional trading over a long period of time except for the following

* Scalping, I refer to scalping in the ES as shooting for 3 ticks or less
* Using tight stops.. 2.5 points max or less.
* Trading the afternoon session. One of my ideas is that price discovery begins in the morning and the profit potential decreases as the day progresses. This doesn't include days where I'm already in a trend/trade.

I'd really like to be able to scalp the ES. The reason is let's say I want to make $300 on a single trade then that trade will probably vary at least to $650 and possibly more. So, I have to take $300 win, $500 hit, etc.

Scalping is obviously the most superior form of trading for a tiny account IF it is possible. I can make $40, -$30, +40 and end up $300 then that is much better. I wouldn't even have losing days!

Reality is, I've dominated other forms of trading but never been more then BREAK EVEN scalping (again scalping refers to 3 ticks or less.. I can micro trade quite successful target in 3 point range). This makes me somewhat skeptical that is even possible.

What I'm currently doing is recording the market and replaying it..

This gives me the ability to try dozens of trading possibilities. I share a lot of techniques in my newsletter for achieving high levels of trading performance. One technique that I used which should only be done on the simulator is to force myself to trade 24/7. This helps me to identify where I can actually make a profit. This is very exhausting work and is not fun. But I find it improved my performance the last time I tried it. The technique is to force yourself to trade every moment, always in market. Note this is a training method.. Its hard but I'm strong enough to lose because I know how to be successful.. Its hard though.

If anyone can show 3 most recent years of consistent ability to scalp the ES (or another future) then I will both pay to see your record and for mentoring. No one has taken me up on this who has claimed such feats. The requirements are basically what the vendors claim to do. Average with 1 contract $350 per day with max loss below $500/day and a stop of 2 points or less on each trade then again I will pay for your expertise. You must show a real-money record. Net profit should be in the 55k-90k range for all years with max dd below $3500. If you can come close then I may still pay you..

Note, I do offer mentoring and others do pay for my newsletter. I'm a student of the markets and this is one form of trading I haven't been able to get to work.

I mean is it possible? I know traders who never could get day trading to work. Day trading is now my main method. But its not "day trading" like most people would think of it. I am eager to go live either way though. I think I am leaning toward shutting my discretionary C2 system down and focusing on my real money account and my newsletter.

Obviously someone is willing to offer liquidity and they must be profitable.. are they institutions averaging into positions? do they hold directional overnight? Are they simply sitting on the book to arbitrage the ES with other instruments? How do they manage such a feat?

I can see 2-3 methods for this:

1. They are arbitraging ES with other cash instruments. Holding for short periods of time.
2. They are holding a book and averaging in over time.
3. They are able to identify micro opportunities in the market, hitting the market with large size and out again. This still doesn't explain those sitting in the book.
 
Quote from Lucias:

Reality is, I've dominated other forms of trading...
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And one day you will actually trade with real money. I hope you have a really good week at some point with real money so that I can read your insane self-worship that is sure to follow.
 
Quote from Lucias:


If anyone can show 3 most recent years of consistent ability to scalp the ES (or another future) then I will both pay to see your record and for mentoring. No one has taken me up on this who has claimed such feats. The requirements are basically what the vendors claim to do. Average with 1 contract $350 per day with max loss below $500/day and a stop of 2 points or less on each trade then again I will pay for your expertise. You must show a real-money record. Net profit should be in the 55k-90k range for all years with max dd below $3500. If you can come close then I may still pay you..
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So you are only interested in paying someone to mentor you if they have a real-money record? And yet you still wonder why you have had such a hard time getting people to pay your for your "expertise"? I love the double standard. This journal is the only reason I still look at this website.
 
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