My Path To Success
- Thread starter Lucias
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Why? Are they now in the business of diagnosing awesomeness?
Just Being
It may be sound strange but I've always felt that I needed "conduit" for my success. Typically this conduit was someone wasn't really even interested, very interested, in what I was doing. My abilities developed because my best friend was a scientist who promised to fund me if I demonstrated my abilities and we were friends like 10 years. And, so I started emailing my predictions. I never lost. I had something 48 out of 50 wins. At that I predict the market 6 months advance, touch A price then go to B, stay between B-C.. I mean was unreal.
And, I never lost because I always checked my predictions. It was my way of keeping myself honest. I mean I'd look a fool emailing someone I respected a market call every week, even once, and it not working. So, I just never lost. That's how good I was.
But, I attributed to my friend. I said that's why I never lose. He's probably trading every prediction. He's going to fund me. And, if he doesn't then he certainly, without a doubt, recognizes my ability. Some months later, it turned out he hadn't even checked them. And he refused to check them and therefore because he wasn't going to check them then of course I couldn't funding.
I was devastated. But, I had been telling myself for about a year that this "friend" of my mine was starting to act in ways that I thought weren't helping me. And, I started to make notes 'okay this may not be friend'. But, it took me a long time just to accept okay this guy isn't my friend. And, I see the same thing in a good trade where if a trade has went in my favor then I really don't want to give it up because it was good trade. But, you see it was a good trade. Past tense. This guy was my friend, past tense.
Let me share another little story, I used to post a local meetup board but the administrator had many rules about the nature posts and it became headache. You see by recognized that it becoming a distraction for me and bam then I got rid of it. You see I acted quickly to relieve myself from the burden. And, it is such a relief when you have a good friend and you recognize that, okay no longer a friend and then cut your losses. You avoid so much pain, so much questioning and wasted energy. It sounds harsh but in every case the outcome will be the same and that outcome is some sort of a loss. Take your losses quicker then later.
But, it gets back to why have I always looked to others? Even, if it is in some sort of a capacity where I could just share my work. I guess part of it is that trading is competitive and secretive and you don't want to give your hard earned knowledge.
I think maybe it goes to that we have a problem accepting "just being". "Just being' and I'm coming to a point where yes I can accept that. I don't need another to be successful. I don't need that. I don't have to have that. The thing is that it was all me always. I mean I was just communicating my work. And maybe having the subscribers to my system will give me some of that -- to make it worthwhile. And maybe that's it.. maybe it is that I'm not trading with my money and therefore that I need something else. Some sort of acknowledgment of the worth of what I'm doing..
Sometimes you see a problem. It looks like it can't be overcome. And, then you overcome it. And, it the problem was entirely in the mind. It just required to do it.
What problem? Just being. No problem. He will be and he will do as he always has. It was me all alone, after all.
It may be sound strange but I've always felt that I needed "conduit" for my success. Typically this conduit was someone wasn't really even interested, very interested, in what I was doing. My abilities developed because my best friend was a scientist who promised to fund me if I demonstrated my abilities and we were friends like 10 years. And, so I started emailing my predictions. I never lost. I had something 48 out of 50 wins. At that I predict the market 6 months advance, touch A price then go to B, stay between B-C.. I mean was unreal.
And, I never lost because I always checked my predictions. It was my way of keeping myself honest. I mean I'd look a fool emailing someone I respected a market call every week, even once, and it not working. So, I just never lost. That's how good I was.
But, I attributed to my friend. I said that's why I never lose. He's probably trading every prediction. He's going to fund me. And, if he doesn't then he certainly, without a doubt, recognizes my ability. Some months later, it turned out he hadn't even checked them. And he refused to check them and therefore because he wasn't going to check them then of course I couldn't funding.
I was devastated. But, I had been telling myself for about a year that this "friend" of my mine was starting to act in ways that I thought weren't helping me. And, I started to make notes 'okay this may not be friend'. But, it took me a long time just to accept okay this guy isn't my friend. And, I see the same thing in a good trade where if a trade has went in my favor then I really don't want to give it up because it was good trade. But, you see it was a good trade. Past tense. This guy was my friend, past tense.
Let me share another little story, I used to post a local meetup board but the administrator had many rules about the nature posts and it became headache. You see by recognized that it becoming a distraction for me and bam then I got rid of it. You see I acted quickly to relieve myself from the burden. And, it is such a relief when you have a good friend and you recognize that, okay no longer a friend and then cut your losses. You avoid so much pain, so much questioning and wasted energy. It sounds harsh but in every case the outcome will be the same and that outcome is some sort of a loss. Take your losses quicker then later.
But, it gets back to why have I always looked to others? Even, if it is in some sort of a capacity where I could just share my work. I guess part of it is that trading is competitive and secretive and you don't want to give your hard earned knowledge.
I think maybe it goes to that we have a problem accepting "just being". "Just being' and I'm coming to a point where yes I can accept that. I don't need another to be successful. I don't need that. I don't have to have that. The thing is that it was all me always. I mean I was just communicating my work. And maybe having the subscribers to my system will give me some of that -- to make it worthwhile. And maybe that's it.. maybe it is that I'm not trading with my money and therefore that I need something else. Some sort of acknowledgment of the worth of what I'm doing..
Sometimes you see a problem. It looks like it can't be overcome. And, then you overcome it. And, it the problem was entirely in the mind. It just required to do it.
What problem? Just being. No problem. He will be and he will do as he always has. It was me all alone, after all.
There goes pattern39 talking about "shedding innocent trader blood". More blood has been shed by institutional firms, banking and hedge funds, and now High Frequency Trading computer armies implemented by big money firms, by a factor of 100x more than single retail traders will ever take the other side of the trade from a another trader's loss. Besides retail traders are needed by corporations and farmers who sell and buy futures and need the retail speculator to take the other side. More often than not the big moves killing a retail trade is big money and news. I've been there. I've had big losses. Actually the scam trading education which is by itself one of the fastest growing industries in the last 15 years causes far more damage to beginning aspiring retail traders by teaching methods that don't work and selling newsletters and trade calls that don't have a winning percentage often backed by fake testimonials and faked profit figures. Maybe in the bad old days when professional traders had advantages on the floor or the tap that retail traders never had until the last 10 years. It's a much more equal playing field today which has only been recently unbalanced again by the zombie HFT algo-running computers. Not to mention firms who made bad bets and gambled on mortage backed securities such as AIG, Countrywide, and now MF Global.
OP, you need to start trading for real. Start with 1 contract or 2 on a 5k account. Now my trading is 95% live and 5% simulated. Also I don't quite agree with getting subscribers as a signal service provider when one still hasn't proved a year, if not more of live trading success. It does a disservice to clients when the only funding you get is from their subscriptions. I've and many others have been taken and lost money far too many times by newsletters recommendations by people who don't trade live themselves. Maybe get a bank loan instead. It sounds like you are able to sell a service and organize a small business and write a prospectus. The banks could listen to that.
OP, you need to start trading for real. Start with 1 contract or 2 on a 5k account. Now my trading is 95% live and 5% simulated. Also I don't quite agree with getting subscribers as a signal service provider when one still hasn't proved a year, if not more of live trading success. It does a disservice to clients when the only funding you get is from their subscriptions. I've and many others have been taken and lost money far too many times by newsletters recommendations by people who don't trade live themselves. Maybe get a bank loan instead. It sounds like you are able to sell a service and organize a small business and write a prospectus. The banks could listen to that.
First let me say Thank you. And to the others out here who have followed the OP you need to thank him. Because this is where you were when you had that first big win or winning streak and you thought you were up there with Soros, Schwartz, PTJ, and the other Acolytes. Then that first loss came and you thought blip on a big screen no worries Iâm still great. The second loss came and you said Im still up on my account and the big traders loose all the time I rationalize with its part of the game itâs not me. Then came that big one... That either cut your account in half or wiped you completely. You came to the decision that you were not as smart as you thought you were in fact if dumb luck ever grave several chances you were the key recipient to get them.
Unfortunately though the original poster has not even crossed the first loss mentality.
I guess thatâs why I ventured into this post. I came here and maybe some others came to the journals section to see new/old traders get better through screen time and also see the ones who donât get it and continue on the same path. For the ones who I have followed and have shown improvement I have all the admiration for you and wish you the best of luck. But for the ones who continue to loose, refuse to learn, and hold such delusions as the OP I am even happier that Iâve found you. I am happy because when I look at the OP I am grateful for how far I have come as a trader. I thought I had the biggest swinging dick and that my market predicting abilities were the best in the world as the OP aptly put it. But then I reached a threshold point in trading that I believe everyone has where you say to yourself âEnough with the bullshit If your so smart why are you not wealthy, If your so smart why is it you are trading the same contract size year after year, and if your so smart why when people ask you how do you make money trading you always spout bullshit just to sound intelligent.â Maybe these questions were different for others when you got real with yourself but I am glad that I asked them. Since I cut the bullshit and got rid of the ego and went to the drawing board I have been making more money that I ever dreamed was possible for 9 years in a row. And when people ask me now what it is I do I proudly tell them I trade the Australian Dollar using price action and correlation to the dollar Simple as that.
So to the OP who might be a sociopath I thank you and maybe a couple others on here thank you. When I look at you and your ramblings of 2+2=6 8 10 Pie I am proud to say that I will never be at your level again because I continually put in the time and self improvement needed to be a better trader for the next days session.
P.S. - you can keep your predictions, Legacy, Service, Immortality ect ect.. Iâll keep the money. Thanks
Unfortunately though the original poster has not even crossed the first loss mentality.
I guess thatâs why I ventured into this post. I came here and maybe some others came to the journals section to see new/old traders get better through screen time and also see the ones who donât get it and continue on the same path. For the ones who I have followed and have shown improvement I have all the admiration for you and wish you the best of luck. But for the ones who continue to loose, refuse to learn, and hold such delusions as the OP I am even happier that Iâve found you. I am happy because when I look at the OP I am grateful for how far I have come as a trader. I thought I had the biggest swinging dick and that my market predicting abilities were the best in the world as the OP aptly put it. But then I reached a threshold point in trading that I believe everyone has where you say to yourself âEnough with the bullshit If your so smart why are you not wealthy, If your so smart why is it you are trading the same contract size year after year, and if your so smart why when people ask you how do you make money trading you always spout bullshit just to sound intelligent.â Maybe these questions were different for others when you got real with yourself but I am glad that I asked them. Since I cut the bullshit and got rid of the ego and went to the drawing board I have been making more money that I ever dreamed was possible for 9 years in a row. And when people ask me now what it is I do I proudly tell them I trade the Australian Dollar using price action and correlation to the dollar Simple as that.
So to the OP who might be a sociopath I thank you and maybe a couple others on here thank you. When I look at you and your ramblings of 2+2=6 8 10 Pie I am proud to say that I will never be at your level again because I continually put in the time and self improvement needed to be a better trader for the next days session.
P.S. - you can keep your predictions, Legacy, Service, Immortality ect ect.. Iâll keep the money. Thanks
Lucias,
U are missing one key ingredient in your hypothetical account that trumps all your results to date...makes them completely moot and irrelevant.
EMOTION.
It doesn't exist in your track history.
Therefore your history is irrelevant and only a fool would stake any faith in your system without it.
Bottom line- this is reality.
Try to rationalize it any other way until you are blue in the face...it doesn't change things.
End game.
U are missing one key ingredient in your hypothetical account that trumps all your results to date...makes them completely moot and irrelevant.
EMOTION.
It doesn't exist in your track history.
Therefore your history is irrelevant and only a fool would stake any faith in your system without it.
Bottom line- this is reality.
Try to rationalize it any other way until you are blue in the face...it doesn't change things.
End game.
Try to clarify a few points
1. I traded all my signals with live money for about 6 months using NADEX as a proxy. I started with a 3k account but IG Markets closed all accounts which only left me with $1500. At any rate, during that time I hit a net peak return of 150% on my margin (2x, actually 50% and 150% net). I traded through my worst losing streak ever, about 12 losses in a row -- every trade with some money on the line. I ended with a net profit of estimate about 25%. I plan to start trading the full ES contracts when I have enough to meet the overnight margin requirement.
2. I've one of the top 5 long term tracked futures systems at C2. That's LONG TERM. That's multiple year. I'm not really sure that I've really been as good as I was several years ago. I am always plague by self-doubt that I will not have a chance to live up to my previous performance.
3. I have the most disclaimers on my system of any system around. For a long time, I didn't even want anyone to sign up but I had to make it possible to track my progress. My motive was that I didn't think I could make enough from subscriptions and it might decrease my value (to a firm or manager). However, I'm way beyond that now. I don't care if anyone signs up or doesn't sign up. There trading is their responsibility. My goals are MY goals. If someone follows me and makes a fortune then I'm happy for them but at end of day, I'm not holding back because of anyone else. I'm out there to WIN and perform at my best. That's my job. I *do* want people to sign up now because it makes me money. The more money I make from subs then the more I can save to put into my own trading account. So, yes I want people to sign up now. I change my mind. I can use the money.
4. Emotion is irrelevant. Do you think that a big fund manager with 20 million of OPM has big emotional swings like some piker trading a 5k account? At end of day, thinking about the money is just a distraction. My performance is what matters. I've already proven if you can perform then you will get funding/subscribers. They only care if you can perform.
.. I think more then being "way beyond that". I see this as a possible way for me to do things MY WAY. There is a real possibility that if I keep performing to my ability that I'll be able to make it MY WAY. Queue Nina Hagen's "I Did It My Way". I'd rather make 250k trading MY WAY then a million working for some 'prestigious' hedge fund. I'd rather do things MY WAY. My ideal situation would be something like Ronnie Schlatfords (see Billion Dollar Day) -- just me and a handful of super wealthy clients desiring exceptional performance and capable of handling the risk.
As for losses, that's part of the game. There will be losses. Your loss is not my concern. My loss is my concern. End of story.
1. I traded all my signals with live money for about 6 months using NADEX as a proxy. I started with a 3k account but IG Markets closed all accounts which only left me with $1500. At any rate, during that time I hit a net peak return of 150% on my margin (2x, actually 50% and 150% net). I traded through my worst losing streak ever, about 12 losses in a row -- every trade with some money on the line. I ended with a net profit of estimate about 25%. I plan to start trading the full ES contracts when I have enough to meet the overnight margin requirement.
2. I've one of the top 5 long term tracked futures systems at C2. That's LONG TERM. That's multiple year. I'm not really sure that I've really been as good as I was several years ago. I am always plague by self-doubt that I will not have a chance to live up to my previous performance.
3. I have the most disclaimers on my system of any system around. For a long time, I didn't even want anyone to sign up but I had to make it possible to track my progress. My motive was that I didn't think I could make enough from subscriptions and it might decrease my value (to a firm or manager). However, I'm way beyond that now. I don't care if anyone signs up or doesn't sign up. There trading is their responsibility. My goals are MY goals. If someone follows me and makes a fortune then I'm happy for them but at end of day, I'm not holding back because of anyone else. I'm out there to WIN and perform at my best. That's my job. I *do* want people to sign up now because it makes me money. The more money I make from subs then the more I can save to put into my own trading account. So, yes I want people to sign up now. I change my mind. I can use the money.
4. Emotion is irrelevant. Do you think that a big fund manager with 20 million of OPM has big emotional swings like some piker trading a 5k account? At end of day, thinking about the money is just a distraction. My performance is what matters. I've already proven if you can perform then you will get funding/subscribers. They only care if you can perform.
.. I think more then being "way beyond that". I see this as a possible way for me to do things MY WAY. There is a real possibility that if I keep performing to my ability that I'll be able to make it MY WAY. Queue Nina Hagen's "I Did It My Way". I'd rather make 250k trading MY WAY then a million working for some 'prestigious' hedge fund. I'd rather do things MY WAY. My ideal situation would be something like Ronnie Schlatfords (see Billion Dollar Day) -- just me and a handful of super wealthy clients desiring exceptional performance and capable of handling the risk.
As for losses, that's part of the game. There will be losses. Your loss is not my concern. My loss is my concern. End of story.
The Hammer
I'm going to share one of my favorite trade sequences which I call "The Hammer". This is an experimental and high performance style that is not currently made it into my established styles. As you may know, I'm trying to take my performance to the next level. I've determined that for me to get to the next level then I can't be taking "bad" stop hits. At the same time, I have to increase my size which means I'd have to decrease my stop size.
So, this is where "The Hammer" comes in. The hammer is one form of "trade sequence". What is the hammer?
The hammer is when I go long/short a directional trade and then I hedge with a correlated instrument instead of taking a stop hit. Let's say I have a bias to be short and the market rallies. Provided I still think that I'm right then instead of taking stop hit, I cover in a correlated instrument. This gives me an opportunity to either scalp on the losing side or to stay hedged when strong momentum turns against me. I can hold the neutralizing trade for even days if I wanted.
I drop the hammer by timing the dropping of one side. When I drop the hammer then I close the winning side and take a new directional stance.
The hammer is beautiful when executed properly. However, a few things things can happen that make it an extremely high risk trade.
1. The spread in the correlated instruments can widen. This even happens with so called efficient markets like the NQ and ES. I always try to be short the weak and long the strong. But let's say I short ES and NQ is strong so I go long the strong and then the relationship reverses. Now the spread widens and my loss grows very big.
2. It can be easy to get scared out and drop the wrong side.
3. It is possible to scalp the losing side. However, the scalps may not make up for strong trends.
4. It is very easy for the "hedge" to cost more then the initial trade idea is worth. This the worst feeling. If you don't take profits fast enough on the momentum -- which are typically stop hits-- then you get stuck on the hedge.
5. There is typically a very precise window in which to close the hammer before it gets "stuck".
This is why this is an experimental strategy for me. It requires extreme performance to do this properly. Again, you can mistime the hammer drop resulting in a loss on your original idea or you can mistime the the hammer load (failed) load resulting in a loss on the hedge side.
Why is the hammer useful? The hammer is really useful because it gives me time to consider the trade I'm in without getting "run out". I can also make money from a losing position. It can be brilliant when it works because I'll rack up scalping profits as the market moves against me and then drop the hammer for another big move down/up.
My "market making" style is really just a series of hammer trades. To do this properly, requires one to take some pretty heavy swings though. I look at the money that I make off a sequence. One good thing is that I become very quickly aware of what's working and what's not working.
Now one could argue, if I just took the winning hammer trades then I wouldn't need to hold the losing side. Yes, that's true.
Anyway, this trade sequence is still in my "experimental stall". It shows great promise and may be the quiver required to get me to the next level. However, this is also a trade style that scares me because it is easy to rack up huge losses with a failed hammer load or a mistimed hammer drop. And even when I tell myself I'm hedged then it is easy to for me to get scared out.
I think if I had more experience with hammer trades then I might trust my ability more.
One key note I forgot to add, I vary my bet size on the hammer based on my confidence level. So, I'll overweight one side or the other at key times. This can result in a very risky phenomena that I call "ballooning" which means I'm ballooning both sides of the trade. This results in higher trade frictions and risk. This is something I want to avoid. In general sense my initial idea is right more then not then I'm thinking of reducing my size on these hedges. I'm 50/50 on whether this style has enough merit to keep in my playbook. It can be brilliant or terrible. Need more experience to say for certain.
Cons
Lose more on hedge then original trade idea, can't make enough money on scalps in a strong trend to offset the losses, drop the hedge too soon and lose more money on the initial idea then desired.
Pros
Learn what's working in market very fast. Keep a good trade idea without getting run out and without risking a huge stop hit. Make profits in multiple time frames. Gives me time to reconsider the situation.
I'm going to share one of my favorite trade sequences which I call "The Hammer". This is an experimental and high performance style that is not currently made it into my established styles. As you may know, I'm trying to take my performance to the next level. I've determined that for me to get to the next level then I can't be taking "bad" stop hits. At the same time, I have to increase my size which means I'd have to decrease my stop size.
So, this is where "The Hammer" comes in. The hammer is one form of "trade sequence". What is the hammer?
The hammer is when I go long/short a directional trade and then I hedge with a correlated instrument instead of taking a stop hit. Let's say I have a bias to be short and the market rallies. Provided I still think that I'm right then instead of taking stop hit, I cover in a correlated instrument. This gives me an opportunity to either scalp on the losing side or to stay hedged when strong momentum turns against me. I can hold the neutralizing trade for even days if I wanted.
I drop the hammer by timing the dropping of one side. When I drop the hammer then I close the winning side and take a new directional stance.
The hammer is beautiful when executed properly. However, a few things things can happen that make it an extremely high risk trade.
1. The spread in the correlated instruments can widen. This even happens with so called efficient markets like the NQ and ES. I always try to be short the weak and long the strong. But let's say I short ES and NQ is strong so I go long the strong and then the relationship reverses. Now the spread widens and my loss grows very big.
2. It can be easy to get scared out and drop the wrong side.
3. It is possible to scalp the losing side. However, the scalps may not make up for strong trends.
4. It is very easy for the "hedge" to cost more then the initial trade idea is worth. This the worst feeling. If you don't take profits fast enough on the momentum -- which are typically stop hits-- then you get stuck on the hedge.
5. There is typically a very precise window in which to close the hammer before it gets "stuck".
This is why this is an experimental strategy for me. It requires extreme performance to do this properly. Again, you can mistime the hammer drop resulting in a loss on your original idea or you can mistime the the hammer load (failed) load resulting in a loss on the hedge side.
Why is the hammer useful? The hammer is really useful because it gives me time to consider the trade I'm in without getting "run out". I can also make money from a losing position. It can be brilliant when it works because I'll rack up scalping profits as the market moves against me and then drop the hammer for another big move down/up.
My "market making" style is really just a series of hammer trades. To do this properly, requires one to take some pretty heavy swings though. I look at the money that I make off a sequence. One good thing is that I become very quickly aware of what's working and what's not working.
Now one could argue, if I just took the winning hammer trades then I wouldn't need to hold the losing side. Yes, that's true.
Anyway, this trade sequence is still in my "experimental stall". It shows great promise and may be the quiver required to get me to the next level. However, this is also a trade style that scares me because it is easy to rack up huge losses with a failed hammer load or a mistimed hammer drop. And even when I tell myself I'm hedged then it is easy to for me to get scared out.
I think if I had more experience with hammer trades then I might trust my ability more.
One key note I forgot to add, I vary my bet size on the hammer based on my confidence level. So, I'll overweight one side or the other at key times. This can result in a very risky phenomena that I call "ballooning" which means I'm ballooning both sides of the trade. This results in higher trade frictions and risk. This is something I want to avoid. In general sense my initial idea is right more then not then I'm thinking of reducing my size on these hedges. I'm 50/50 on whether this style has enough merit to keep in my playbook. It can be brilliant or terrible. Need more experience to say for certain.
Cons
Lose more on hedge then original trade idea, can't make enough money on scalps in a strong trend to offset the losses, drop the hedge too soon and lose more money on the initial idea then desired.
Pros
Learn what's working in market very fast. Keep a good trade idea without getting run out and without risking a huge stop hit. Make profits in multiple time frames. Gives me time to reconsider the situation.
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