My over 6-year trading experience in a nutshell

Thank you Woody, for this post in an otherwise miserable thread.

Quote from WoodyK:

"You didn't get my posts then , i didn't say u need this to make money , i just gave an example of what can be considered an edge , i am discussing the edge aspect and how there is no such thing as an edge to exploit as a retail trader"


I vehemently disagree with the fact that a retail trader can't have an edge. What does shock me is that people think they can show up and just trade. "Trading is an easy way to make a hard living."

I watched an episode of the Shark Tank tv show recently where the "Sharks" were upset with a would-be entrepreneur because he wanted to be compensated for his start up and development time (he had left a mid 6 figure career to pursue his product). They pointed out that many of them went uncompensated or were unprofitable for up to 9 years before they "made it" or turned a substantial profit. So it is with trading. It takes time and as with most new business endeavors the failure rate is very high. "Trading" is no different- it's a business like any other but with high rewards.

I also think it's arrogant and certainly a naive approach to think that you can develop an edge by manipulating a series of indicators, etc etc. Finding an edge is extremely difficult for most- you may never find one, but it is possible. Plenty do succeed as retail traders. When I first started out in the 70's I met a person who made $50K a year trading with a simple moving average. I was introduced to trading by a radiologist friend already making $100K who made enough trading soybean oil to live like a king. If I recall he used point and figure charts. Today there are far better instruments to trade.

What the retail trader does have now (that I didn't) is the benefit of technology- the ability to access markets from anywhere with ease. I'm leaving in a few weeks for St. Croix (USVI). They have better internet there than I have here in Vegas. Nothing else will change but the ocean view.

Information is easier to come by as well. I wanted to read several books about Quants, HFT, and Algo trading so I ordered them off the net and they just showed up. They were interesting for someone like me who doesn't do any of the above. One benefit, among many from the books for the retail trader, was the fact that a large sample was required for many of their "techniques" to be tested. I imagine most retail traders don't bother to do that (and I don't mean back-testing or curve fitting).

Also the entry fee is low today. Many brokers allow you to trade by depositing only $5,000 ( I started with $20K from an auto accident insurance settlement). What business (besides a hot dog cart) can you start with $5K today?

Unless you started trading during the bull markets of the 70's, today is the next best time to do it, imo. For example my son, who developed a viable computer trading system with low risk, will undoubtedly be successful trading the 30 year Treasury Bond market for all the above reasons. Incidentally, it took him nearly 10 years of development and savings to get to the point to commit money ($100K to trade 100 lot). Anyone can do it if they are willing to put out the effort and are smart about the way they go about it

Please don't give up because others couldn't be successful.
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Quote from TheMagican:

Why doesn`t anyone start the thread ''My over 6-year of cooking experience in a nutshell''?

I`d subscribe...
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when my wife got pregnant she couldn't cook (and she was a very very good cook), so if I wanted to eat I had to learn. The first 6 years were pretty rough.

One time I tried to wrap smelt in pasta, but the smelt still had a lot of bones in it.

But eventually I became pretty competent. They still talk about the Mexican meal I made (upon request) for 13 people for my daughter's 18th Birthday Party.
 
Quote from oldtime:

when my wife got pregnant she couldn't cook (and she was a very very good cook), so if I wanted to eat I had to learn. The first 6 years were pretty rough.

One time I tried to wrap smelt in pasta, but the smelt still had a lot of bones in it.

But eventually I became pretty competent. They still talk about the Mexican meal I made (upon request) for 13 people for my daughter's 18th Birthday Party.
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Wait.Your dear wife was pregnant 6 years?
 
Quote from TheMagican:

Wait.Your dear wife was pregnant 6 years?
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3 kids in 4 years, and then all she cooked was diet food, if you wanted a man's meal you had to cook it yourself.
 
Quote from William Rennick:

Instead let me start off by striking a wooden match off your forehead to light my Dutchmaster. Next lets take it to an alley. I'll kick you a couple of times in balls and you get to keep half your money, then you go home and never trade again.

Chevy Chase Rennick out:cool:
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Don't let this go to your head, but I love you "Wild Bill". :D

The one advice I would have for the erstwhile trader in question is this. Almost all of the information about trading that you, or almost anyone else, can easily avail themselves of is useless or just plain wrong. There is a simple reason for this. Those who make their living from getting you to trade, and the more you trade the more money they make, are the source of this bad information. Of course these vultures (see above photo) would prefer that you make money, but they prefer even more that they make money, and they can't make money unless you trade and trade a lot. If you do what they want you to do you will end up entering bad trades over and over again. Therefore, don't do what they want. Pick and choose your entries very carefully and spend almost all your time waiting for an entry that puts the odds in your favor. Remember, you control the entry, the market controls the exit.

The first step in trading successfully is to recognize these simple facts, and the next step is to never listen to the folks putting out crap advice again. Go your own way, and do your own thinking. Stick with it, and you will more than likely succeed. But never forget that trading is gambling, and there are good gamblers and bad, but mostly bad, and even the most skilled gamblers can end up broke -- that's what makes it gambling!
 
Quote from cool 2334:

(snip)

That is why there has never been a trader with PROVEN TRACK RECORD.

This is my testimonial addressed to whom might be concerned.

Thank you,
Cool2334 [/B]
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If that was the case how would one ever raise any money?

Of for that mater, why would any one give anyone any money to invest?

Seems like your making generalizations from your own experience, which is never an accurate measure of the truth.
 
Quote from cool 2334:



There are inherently complicated issues (form both psychological and professional aspects) in trading that can not be solved.

That is why traders fail on the long run.

AND

That is why there has never been a trader with PROVEN TRACK RECORD.

This is my testimonial addressed to whom might be concerned.

Thank you,
Cool2334
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Sorry to hear you did not make it. I read through the thread, most of what you say in your testimonial has already been discussed.

However, can you expound more on the"inherently complicated issues (form both psychological and professional aspects) in trading that can not be solved" part of your testimonial please?

Thanks.
 
One thing the OP hasn't mentioned is how detailed his research was before he decided to give up. Or was there anything that qualified as research?

Meaning, numbers. Numbers (doesn't matter what kind) collected with consistency and rigorously analyzed. And no, reading books and watching videos is not analysis. It is the opposite, as simply viewing things shuts down one's initiative.

In my early days spent in a prop shop I've seen droves of traders spend many many months and sometimes years eyeballing charts and clicking. That's all they did. Click. I haven't seen any of them (except for my then-mentor) do any sort of numerical analysis besides eyeballing squiggly lines and look at their P&L statements.

All of them are gone. And all of them likely think they worked hard and "it just wasn't for them". Hell, I've done more analysis in my single college programming assignment than they've done in their entire trading "careers".

There are two truths in this market:

1. Fairly simple shit still works, odds-wise, if you are willing to put in the time and rigor to find it.
2. Out of 98% (or whatever that useless number is) of traders who fail, 99% are hopelessly and maybe even unknowingly lazy. This is, BTW, why I believe top-school education has weight, because one of the most important skills it develops is persistence and the ability to just go "naysayers be damned, get it fucking done."

/Wulfrede
 
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