My Options Play

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The time value on your option is about 1.09 based on the close of 2.85 ask. The extrinisic value of your option includes this time in the option pricing in addition to the intrinsic value. For another month out on this option, you are only getting $1 more of premium in your sale. There is a good amount of o/i on this option that could create overhead resistance for the underlying, but that's a while away. Not to be argumentative, but IMHO I think you want to reconsider your too good to be true statement. Based on something I use to calculate option prices, I think you should have gotten over 3.5 to have gotten the fair price.

sd
 
Quote from Rob on Business:

How did you figure AAPL was going down this week? It looks so steady. Was the analyst downgrade today expected or not figured at all?
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just a hunch based upon the open interest near the 70 strike and all the front month 75 calls - with a paucity of puts.

also -- over the years -- expiration week (particularly triple witch) has been a very good time for this kind of counter-trend 'surprise ' move - and a surprise downgrade. Of course I don't want to say that there is manipulation of stocks and that the timing of the downgrades right before triple witch was staged--- but it is a rather interesting coincidence that they couldn't wait until Monday to downgrade. Now why would that be?

AAPL is going much lower in January - watch and see-- the Q isn't whether it goes lower-- but rather-- "from what level" it starts it's decline- current levels or higher like say- $80+.

Today they catch another analyst call with MS setting 90 as the "target" - sounds like they want to distribute their stock to suckers late to the party.

Morgan Stanley - IMHO- are amongst the biggest whores on the Street- and I have caught them front-running their analyst calls -- and once caught them front-running news (buying puts) in Providian stock many years ago- for which they were subject to an SEC investigation. Just as an interesting anecdote- when I saw the large volume cross in the Providian puts I actually checked with the floor and found out it was MS- then bought a large quantity of puts myself. The next day the stock dropped like 15 points. I made $9 on 27 puts.


But I did try to buy AAPL Jan 80 calls yesterday at the LOD- but wasn't filled @ 1.05.- low offer was 1.40.


Ice
:cool:
 
Quote from iceman1:

right now I'm sitting here nursing short VLO Dec 110c- will they expire @ -0- ? I may sell some Dec 110p - buy Jan
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looks like VLO dec 100c will expire -0-

yeahh baaabby :D

did sell 1/3 size VLO 110 puts @ 1.70
and bought + Jan 110p @5.30

debit = $3.60

also went long VLO Jan 120c @ 1.45 - will likely keep it directional --- then convert into bear spread.

-- best would be for VLO to pin @ 1.10 :p :p:p


day order to buy AAPL Jan 80 calls @ 1.15
 
Quote from iceman1:

looks like VLO dec 100c will expire -0-

yeahh baaabby :D

did sell 1/3 size VLO 110 puts @ 1.70
and bought + Jan 110p @5.30

debit = $3.60

also went long VLO Jan 120c @ 1.45 - will likely keep it directional --- then convert into bear spread.

-- best would be for VLO to pin @ 1.10 :p :p:p


day order to buy AAPL Jan 80 calls @ 1.15
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b.t.w.

--- for anyone trading VLO

trading split adjusted tomorrow -

2/1
 
Quote from novel20:

Multioption, are you still here?

Why stopped post your trades?
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Novel20, I am still here and reading. I am not trading at the moment.....will post as new trades are initiated.
 
Quote from Multioption:

Novel20, I am still here and reading. I am not trading at the moment.....will post as new trades are initiated.
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Hey Multi, how about a fresh challenge for 2006. 10K to 100K by Dec 31 2006. Write down the rules. A deviation from the rules must be explained fully. This time add sector strength to your stock scan. Just my .02
 
Quote from mhashe:

Hey Multi, how about a fresh challenge for 2006. 10K to 100K by Dec 31 2006. Write down the rules. A deviation from the rules must be explained fully. This time add sector strength to your stock scan. Just my .02
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Thanks for the suggestion. My goal for this year is much more than 100K but I will see how far 11.5K will go in 2006. I'm also planning to start a stock trading project with 20K to compare results with options acocunt.
 
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