Are you and Multi working together on this?
My Options Play
- Thread starter Multioption
- Start date
- Status
Are you and Multi working together on this?
You wouldn't happen to be Ducati998 would you? He is over on that T2W place. If you aren't then you must be his brother. You both sing the same song.Quote from uninvited_guest:
QUESTION: Why did the TA miss this?
ANSWER: TA only shows were the market HAS been, not were it's going.
I wonder if Multi is going to give an update on the APA trades, what a fvck up that was. Loss could be $10,000+ on the long and short calls. Timing very bad, GREED got him in FEAR kept him in.
What a dork he is.
May I ask you if TA doesn't work to predict where the market will probally go how did I make those calls and post them before the fact? I don't do fundamental analysis and most of the time ignore the news. They were all made with TA and a part of that TA was some "ole fashioned out of date" TA that I finds works just well in todays markets.
You should give Multi some tips then, he needs a bit of help.
Below are the results of the Scan. On a cusory glance, looks to me this is a high probability directional scan ( keeping in mind that we 're currently inside of a rally) I'm sure Multi uses other criterias than the ones I used, but I can see how he's so confident in his directional plays.
Stock Price Maximum Maximum Currrent Change
When move up Move Close Close to
Posted down close
ABX 25.83 27.27 25.27 26.8 0.97
9-Nov 17-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov
NSM 23.48 25.93 n/a 25.82 2.34
9-Nov 18-Nov 18-Nov
RESP 37.76 39.74 n/a 39.67 1.91
9-Nov 18-Nov 18-Nov
ARRS 8.78 n/a 7.99 8.1 -0.68
9-Nov 8-Nov 18-Nov
N 42.97 45.73 n/a 43.83 0.86
9-Nov 14-Nov 18-Nov
FDG 35.46 n/a 33.9 35.05 -0.41
9-Nov 10-Nov 18-Nov
Is there any way to see how the gamut of options in each case progressed for the week? I'd like to look at the progression of each options price in relation to the stock price and change in volatility.
The further you go out into the future the harder it is to predict. I do mostly 1 to 3 day forecast. My favorite is next day. Here is an observation that I wonder if alot of traders even notice. Tomorrows range is USUALLY a large part of todays range and with some up move or down move added, or both added. Ford trucks tomorrow will be close to todays price barring a major event that dramatically increases demand/supply. This simple statement applied to the stock market is a fruitful endeavour. Just look at any daily chart and you will see what I mean. Of course there are times in strong down trend and strong uptrends that this wouldn't be true. However, think on this: I have heard it said we have sideways movement 70% of the time. And folks wait to trade the up trend or down trend!! How much are they missing!!
Nevertheless here is a monthly forecast on ADI and TXN.
Monthly:
ADI - bearish but that could change before 30 days are up.
TXN - bullish
DAILY
1 day forecast for ADI monday 21st.
ADI will probally make a lower high on monday 21st. Three day cycle only allows shorting for monday. Short on any move up made to 37.70 to 37.85..watch for the top to be made. This move must be made within the first 2 hours. Even though I think it will make a lower high there is a slight posiibility it will make a higher high. I just think the lower high has more probability. If it doesn't make it to near either figures early in the session then short where it does make it to when the intraday tape indicates the top is made. No long position for monday in this stock according to my system. Your system might allow it I don't know.
TXN 1 day forecast for monday 21st:
TXN probally will make a lower high on Monday.
If it makes 32.40 within first 2 hours from open I would look at shorting but watch the intraday tape for top. Especially, if it breaks 32.50 on good volume you will want to wait for the top. I don't think it will break 32.40 buit if it does and pushes on thru 32.50 with ease you got a good shorting oopportunity but this must be done within 1.5 hours of open no later than 2.00.
If it begrudingly trades up to or near 32.30 32.38 and stalls out then I would short around when I see the top on intraday tape. Cover any shorts made in these two senarios the same day on any decline.
There is no long opportunity in the 3 day cycle for tomorrow.
Remember if the forecast are way off soon after the open then I would normally download the new intraday data and make a revised forecast based on the new data. Keep this in mind. The forecast must ALWAYS be compared with actual market action the next trading day and adjustments made. One can't fight the market no matter what the forecast says. Pride can be swallowed forecast can be dumped. The only the that counts is "what" the market is doing. With forecasts we are simply attempting to ANTICIPATE what the market will do. It is imppossible to get it right every time. We don't know if we are right until we actually see what the market does.
Unfortunately, I won't be home to make any adjustments if the forecasts are off as I will be gone most of next week next week so if the forecast are off you should know within first hour or two and you can adjust for the difference in your own way.
Disclaimer: This information is ONLY for paper trading and informational purpose as are all the trade calls I have made! Period!
"Pyramiding RSI" is a very simple script taken from Wealth-Lab's documentation. If you ran it on low volatility issues like DELL, MSFT, DIA, SPX it will give returns over the last 1,500 trading days better than the buy and hold approach. It will miserably fail for higher volatility issues, i.e. QQQQ, but in my opinion it is a good example of a successful use of a very simple technical analysis indicator.
It is very simple to try it: clicking "Pyramiding RSI" you'll get to this script's page on the Wealth-Lab site, where you just type in the symbol you want to check and in a few seconds you'll get the results.
For those interested this is the code:
Code:
{ This Trading System buys whenever RSI crosses above 30,
and closes all open positions when it crosses below 70. }
var BAR, P: integer;
for Bar := 15 to BarCount() - 1 do
begin
if RSI( Bar, #Close, 14 ) < 70 then
if RSI( Bar - 1, #Close, 14 ) >= 70 then
begin
for p := 0 to PositionCount() - 1 do
if PositionActive( p ) then
SellAtMarket( Bar + 1, p, '');
end;
if RSI( Bar, #Close, 14 ) > 30 then
if RSI( Bar - 1, #Close, 14 ) <= 30 then
BuyAtMarket( Bar + 1, '' );
end;- Status