My Options Play

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from iceman1:

CHS

hit 46 dollars this week - --!!!

we should have all rolled into the Nov 35c
More...

QUESTION: Why did the TA miss this?

ANSWER: TA only shows were the market HAS been, not were it's going.


I wonder if Multi is going to give an update on the APA trades, what a fvck up that was. Loss could be $10,000+ on the long and short calls. Timing very bad, GREED got him in FEAR kept him in. :)

What a dork he is. :cool:
 
Quote from cnms2:

... and how you do it? :)
More...
I use my own proprietary price only EOD analysis software. I then like to run that analysis through some tape reading principles. Before the market opens next morning I already have my strategies in place. Finally, I watch the market and if it behaves as predicted I look at taking a position following my rules. If the markets actual behaviour is not near the prediction, such as what happened today in DIS, then I simply download the intraday data dump it into my software and do a new analysis based on what intraday data I have. My software can't predict breakouts down or up so when that happens I need new data to work off from on the fly. Much like I did on DIS today and it gave me a new purchase price of 25.06. Nevertheless, when it reached that price I still saw some supply so waited for more drop. There was plenty of opportunities to get in at 25.03 and perhaps even 25.02 as I was watching the intraday action on a live streamer.

The mistake I made today on HRB was not sticking to my original prediction. When 007 told me of the sell-off after the close I gave to much heed to that event. I should have just stuck with my original prediction. IF it had indeed went different today than the original prediction all I would have had to have done is download the intraday data and work off fresh numbers, like I did in DIS.

My software takes into account the three day cycle you find in many stocks and futures. There are rules that govern each day of the cycle and intructions on whether you can short, go long, or both. Each day has its own rules. My software usually generates me pretty good buying/ selling prices but I like tape reading to give me the probable trend and help me spot demand/supply and what the "deep pockets" are doing. I like to correlate what my software tells me with tape reading and of course what really happens the next day. So, you might say my buying and selling is a 3 step process: software prediction, tape reading, all correlated with intraday reading the tape/actual price action. I am a discretionary trader.
 
Quote from pinabetal:
I use my own proprietary price only EOD analysis software.
...
So, you might say my buying and selling is a 3 step process: software prediction, tape reading, all correlated with intraday reading the tape/actual price action
More...
Thank you. Very informative!
 
Pinabetal, thanks for your explanation. Did you actually trade on those calls today? And when did you buy DIS? Would you mind sharing some recent successful trades?

Thanks!
 
MY FORECAST AND RESULTS FOR 11/18/05

HRB- I think it will make a higher high. However, if it doesn't break thru the fairly strong resistance around 24.00-24.10 area pretty quick in the session then I would look at shorting around 23.80 to 24.00. If it breaks thru early in the session then I would watch the intraday tape and short when it appears to top out. I would cover the short the same day on any good profit. I would not attempt to go long tomorrow the 18th.

Results: I got the direction right on this original forecast. But I decided to void the forecast and not make it because of some aftermarket decline that 007 told me about. I appreciate 007 informing of that info. He was trying to help. It was my fault for not sticking to my original forecast. If it had turned out different than the original I could have always downloaded intraday data and re-forecast on the fly.

APA -I think they will take it down first so I would look at going long around 65.60 to 65.80 area then sell on any rally that reaches 67.40 or above OR hold and sell the next day if it looks like the close will be up.

Results: Long position at 65. 40 easy enough. Could have subsequently been sold at 66.15 or held overnight to sell monday

DIS - ...original forecast....- Probally track sideways with a possible higher high over 17th high and a possible lower low too. Short on any penetration of 26.12 once the top is made by intraday tape, That could meand 26.12 to 27.00 or even higher, just watch for top. This is the best early morning senario. If it trades down first without going up first to 26.12 then go long at 25.70 to 25.40 area when it appears bottom is made on tape. Of course put stop losses. Cover any short on same day. Get out of long same day.

Modified intraday forecast for DIS ...the one...I followed - According the the system I use in conjunction with tape reading it is telling me it is best to wait on DIS and take a position next trading day on Monday as monday is day 2 of a trading cycle I use in my system. A more risky trade would be a long position today at 25.06 area. One would just have to make sure intraday says it has bottomed out. If one decides to do this then my stop loss is 24.89 for any long position taken around 25.06 area.

Results: Based upon this modified forecast I took a hypothetical position at 25.02. It would have been quite easy to get in at that price or at worst 25.03 as I watched intraday action. Will sell monday.

GOOG - This is a tough one to call. You got a narrow range but upward price movement. I may be wrong on this one but I am going to say it will make 405 to 406 before it trades down for the day. I would short early in session if it reaches there and intraday tape appears to say it is topping out. I know shorting is against the present trend but this is a day I would allow shorting by my rules. However if it trades down first then my rules also allow me to go long if it does so within first 1.5 hours from the open. So if it trades down first I would go long at 399.20 to 399.50 area when it looks like bottom is made on intraday tape. I imagine GOOG has bewildered many a trader last few days! No water at house this morning so I had to check on that first that is why so late getting this out but I think I am getting sent just before the open.

Results- Got the direction right on this. Just didn't quite reach 405 to short it. However, if I were interested in trading this stock intraday tape reading would have alerted me thaT 404.50 was close to the high of the day. It turned out it was the high.

I will be leaving in the A.M. tomorrow. Be gone next week so I won't be around most of next week. Thanksgiving coming up you know. Have a great weekend!
 
Quote from cnms2:

Thank you. Very informative!
More...
cnms2 do you mean it IS or IS NOT? I don't know how to take you sometime?? Couldn't tell if you were injecting some sarcasm or not??
 
Quote from novel20:

Pinabetal, thanks for your explanation. Did you actually trade on those calls today? And when did you buy DIS? Would you mind sharing some recent successful trades?

Thanks!
More...
Nope. All hypothetical but anyone watching the intraday tape could see that they easily could have been traded if one wanted to. All I am doing here is showing how I predict prices for the next day. I don't trade these kinds of stocks. These stocks were the stocks that I was asked to analize and give my take on them so I did.
 
Quote from novel20:

Pinabetal, it seems like you did not trade on all of them? Are you just testing your system with paper trades?

Thanks!
More...
I didn't trade on any of them! I just gave my take on them as I was asked to do so. However, I try to be fair in making my entry prices realistic with the intraday tape. For example, I have a hypothetical long position at 25.02 in DIS. Anybody that watched the intraday action live today should know that I could have gotton in at 25.02 and at worst 25.03 as there was plenty of opportunity to do so.

I am not testing my system. I have been using it since 2000. Just responding to requests to make some calls that is all.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top