Forecasting direction is one thing, capturing enough price movement to make a difference in your account is another thing - speaking in regards to options buying. What is your price target for shorting OSTK; to what price level do you think it is likely to drop?Quote from pattersb:
way ahead of youI'm probably at step 15. Take a breather, and do some feasiblity work ...
I suppose the up/down analysis was a gross simplification. Is it true, that often enough, as fast as buyers run up the price sellers drive it back down? I'm looking for "unjustified run-ups", stocks that are trending downward that move sharply out of the trading ranges on little-or-no-news.
For instance, FNM on 2/23 has been the one trade I've made that actually meets my rules. (discpline is definitely a virtue..) The broader markets where trending down, FNM gapped up, on news that was not as bad as expected, but still bad.
Suddenly puts were extremely cheap, Mar 55 puts went to .40, I bought 20 ... whent to 2.40 in three days. If I can find 50 similiar situations a year...
I won't but still I consider shorting OSTK, today. volume's drying up and the news sounds mostly bad ... yet it's up 40% for the week.
My Options Play
- Thread starter Multioption
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This company has been butchered in the financial press lately,
and frankly it appears to me a stupid-little company with an attractive spokesperson.
Looking at past weeklies, I'd project that it will give up half its recent gains. It's gone from from 22 to 31, so roughly 4.5 down.
Id look for it to move down to 26.
Apr 30 puts are at 1.60, so I'd shoot for 3x the money.
I've also been scouting ITW, I think that easily has a 4 point move downward next week ....
If I were trading it that is, Step 15 ... Go back to the drawing board!
Multioption, do you pay any attention to BollingBands? Do you believe they have any value?
Thanks for the response, (this is your thread after-all!)
and frankly it appears to me a stupid-little company with an attractive spokesperson.
Looking at past weeklies, I'd project that it will give up half its recent gains. It's gone from from 22 to 31, so roughly 4.5 down.
Id look for it to move down to 26.
Apr 30 puts are at 1.60, so I'd shoot for 3x the money.
I've also been scouting ITW, I think that easily has a 4 point move downward next week ....
If I were trading it that is, Step 15 ... Go back to the drawing board!
Multioption, do you pay any attention to BollingBands? Do you believe they have any value?
Thanks for the response, (this is your thread after-all!)
OK!
Good question....took me down the memory lane...I don't know anything about technical indicators save the ones I use - EMA, MACD and DMI.
I've not had any cause to look outside those three since 1995 October. Reason being that I started charting with pencil and chartbooks based on 2nd day data by Wall Street Journal. Then at some point I subscribed to Commodity Trend Service (CTS) and Commodity Price Chart - Internet has changed all that.
Many thanks to Welles Wilder and developers of MACD and EMAs.
Bollingband simply calcuate tops/bottoms based on the standard deviation of prices. For some stocks during certain periods, it's like clockwork. Its above the upperband, it comes down. Below the lowerband, it goes up.
I run batch jobs everynight, collecting data and crunching it. I went pretty crazy after I discovered the options markets. Let me know if the MACD data has any value to you. I'm crunching it, but not sure how to use it. Frankly, I've forgotten what the last chart means, I believe it is the delta of MACD_Delta, across periods... or in another words, the acceleration of the MACD and EMACD
Top 20, 26 day period ADX
symbol adx
EXPD 73.08
PPC 66.76
AH 63.74
HNZ 61.23
DHR 60.25
BLS 59.90
SFNT 59.37
LMT 59.11
WEBX 59.11
BER 58.65
RSH 57.78
ODP 57.08
BCSI 55.99
DVA 55.54
NTES 54.14
PTEN 53.48
LLL 53.16
PIXR 53.12
WPI 52.46
SNDK MACD, EMACD Data
symbol dte macd emacd macd_delta emacd_delta
SNDK 03/23 -1.44 -1.69 0.14 0.06
SNDK 03/22 -1.58 -1.75 0.14 0.04
SNDK 03/21 -1.73 -1.79 0.08 0.02
SNDK 03/20 -1.81 -1.80 0.00 0.00
SNDK 03/17 -1.81 -1.80 0.07 0.00
SNDK 03/16 -1.87 -1.80 0.05 -0.02
SNDK 03/15 -1.92 -1.78 0.16 -0.04
SNDK 03/14 -2.08 -1.75 -0.06 -0.08
SNDK 03/13 -2.03 -1.66 -0.09 -0.09
SNDK 03/10 -1.93 -1.57 -0.17 -0.09
SNDK 03/09 -1.77 -1.48 -0.20 -0.07
SNDK 03/08 -1.57 -1.41 -0.23 -0.04
SNDK 03/07 -1.34 -1.37 -0.12 0.01
SNDK 03/06 -1.22 -1.38 0.00 0.04
SNDK 03/03 -1.22 -1.42 0.03 0.05
SNDK 03/02 -1.25 -1.48 0.16 0.06
SNDK 03/01 -1.41 -1.53 0.23 0.03
SNDK 02/28 -1.63 -1.56 0.16 -0.02
SNDK 02/27 -1.79 -1.55 0.23 -0.06
SNDK 02/24 -2.02 -1.49 -0.09 -0.13
SNDK 02/23 -1.92 -1.35 -0.05 -0.14
SNDK 02/22 -1.87 -1.21 0.02 -0.16
SNDK 02/21 -1.89 -1.05 -0.22 -0.21
symbol dte pdmacd pmacd pemacd pmacdd pemacdd
SNDK 03/23 0.16 -1.58 -1.75 0.14 0.04
SNDK 03/22 0.06 -1.73 -1.79 0.08 0.02
SNDK 03/21 0.00 -1.81 -1.80 0.00 0.00
SNDK 03/20 0.00 -1.81 -1.80 0.07 0.00
SNDK 03/17 -0.07 -1.87 -1.80 0.05 -0.02
SNDK 03/16 -0.14 -1.92 -1.78 0.16 -0.04
SNDK 03/15 -0.34 -2.08 -1.75 -0.06 -0.08
SNDK 03/14 -0.36 -2.03 -1.66 -0.09 -0.09
SNDK 03/13 -0.36 -1.93 -1.57 -0.17 -0.09
SNDK 03/10 -0.28 -1.77 -1.48 -0.20 -0.07
SNDK 03/09 -0.16 -1.57 -1.41 -0.23 -0.04
SNDK 03/08 0.04 -1.34 -1.37 -0.12 0.01
SNDK 03/07 0.17 -1.22 -1.38 0.00 0.04
SNDK 03/06 0.21 -1.22 -1.42 0.03 0.05
SNDK 03/03 0.23 -1.25 -1.48 0.16 0.06
SNDK 03/02 0.13 -1.41 -1.53 0.23 0.03
SNDK 03/01 -0.07 -1.63 -1.56 0.16 -0.02
SNDK 02/28 -0.24 -1.79 -1.55 0.23 -0.06
SNDK 02/27 -0.53 -2.02 -1.49 -0.09 -0.13
SNDK 02/24 -0.57 -1.92 -1.35 -0.05 -0.14
SNDK 02/23 -0.66 -1.87 -1.21 0.02 -0.16
SNDK 02/22 -0.84 -1.89 -1.05 -0.22 -0.21
I run batch jobs everynight, collecting data and crunching it. I went pretty crazy after I discovered the options markets. Let me know if the MACD data has any value to you. I'm crunching it, but not sure how to use it. Frankly, I've forgotten what the last chart means, I believe it is the delta of MACD_Delta, across periods... or in another words, the acceleration of the MACD and EMACD
Top 20, 26 day period ADX
symbol adx
EXPD 73.08
PPC 66.76
AH 63.74
HNZ 61.23
DHR 60.25
BLS 59.90
SFNT 59.37
LMT 59.11
WEBX 59.11
BER 58.65
RSH 57.78
ODP 57.08
BCSI 55.99
DVA 55.54
NTES 54.14
PTEN 53.48
LLL 53.16
PIXR 53.12
WPI 52.46
SNDK MACD, EMACD Data
symbol dte macd emacd macd_delta emacd_delta
SNDK 03/23 -1.44 -1.69 0.14 0.06
SNDK 03/22 -1.58 -1.75 0.14 0.04
SNDK 03/21 -1.73 -1.79 0.08 0.02
SNDK 03/20 -1.81 -1.80 0.00 0.00
SNDK 03/17 -1.81 -1.80 0.07 0.00
SNDK 03/16 -1.87 -1.80 0.05 -0.02
SNDK 03/15 -1.92 -1.78 0.16 -0.04
SNDK 03/14 -2.08 -1.75 -0.06 -0.08
SNDK 03/13 -2.03 -1.66 -0.09 -0.09
SNDK 03/10 -1.93 -1.57 -0.17 -0.09
SNDK 03/09 -1.77 -1.48 -0.20 -0.07
SNDK 03/08 -1.57 -1.41 -0.23 -0.04
SNDK 03/07 -1.34 -1.37 -0.12 0.01
SNDK 03/06 -1.22 -1.38 0.00 0.04
SNDK 03/03 -1.22 -1.42 0.03 0.05
SNDK 03/02 -1.25 -1.48 0.16 0.06
SNDK 03/01 -1.41 -1.53 0.23 0.03
SNDK 02/28 -1.63 -1.56 0.16 -0.02
SNDK 02/27 -1.79 -1.55 0.23 -0.06
SNDK 02/24 -2.02 -1.49 -0.09 -0.13
SNDK 02/23 -1.92 -1.35 -0.05 -0.14
SNDK 02/22 -1.87 -1.21 0.02 -0.16
SNDK 02/21 -1.89 -1.05 -0.22 -0.21
symbol dte pdmacd pmacd pemacd pmacdd pemacdd
SNDK 03/23 0.16 -1.58 -1.75 0.14 0.04
SNDK 03/22 0.06 -1.73 -1.79 0.08 0.02
SNDK 03/21 0.00 -1.81 -1.80 0.00 0.00
SNDK 03/20 0.00 -1.81 -1.80 0.07 0.00
SNDK 03/17 -0.07 -1.87 -1.80 0.05 -0.02
SNDK 03/16 -0.14 -1.92 -1.78 0.16 -0.04
SNDK 03/15 -0.34 -2.08 -1.75 -0.06 -0.08
SNDK 03/14 -0.36 -2.03 -1.66 -0.09 -0.09
SNDK 03/13 -0.36 -1.93 -1.57 -0.17 -0.09
SNDK 03/10 -0.28 -1.77 -1.48 -0.20 -0.07
SNDK 03/09 -0.16 -1.57 -1.41 -0.23 -0.04
SNDK 03/08 0.04 -1.34 -1.37 -0.12 0.01
SNDK 03/07 0.17 -1.22 -1.38 0.00 0.04
SNDK 03/06 0.21 -1.22 -1.42 0.03 0.05
SNDK 03/03 0.23 -1.25 -1.48 0.16 0.06
SNDK 03/02 0.13 -1.41 -1.53 0.23 0.03
SNDK 03/01 -0.07 -1.63 -1.56 0.16 -0.02
SNDK 02/28 -0.24 -1.79 -1.55 0.23 -0.06
SNDK 02/27 -0.53 -2.02 -1.49 -0.09 -0.13
SNDK 02/24 -0.57 -1.92 -1.35 -0.05 -0.14
SNDK 02/23 -0.66 -1.87 -1.21 0.02 -0.16
SNDK 02/22 -0.84 -1.89 -1.05 -0.22 -0.21
Does BB factor in average directional movement index in its calculation? Or put differently: what is ADX?
Sorry to confuse. ADX and BB have no relationship. BB effectively find the most likely top, and most likely bottom within a period, based on price distrubution.
The ADX is the average of the directional indicator, also created by Wilder:
http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_ADX.html
I'm talking like I know what I'm saying ....
The ADX is the average of the directional indicator, also created by Wilder:
http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_ADX.html
I'm talking like I know what I'm saying ....
Seems I'm catching your drift on why you asked if I look at BB. Could it be that BB is suggesting a downtrend on LCAV? Will appreciate your thoughts on this.
Well, please keep in mind, I'm near busting out my account, and know next to nothing ....So, I wouldn't change your winning stratedgy based on anything I say ....
While LCAV has just hit its Daily upperband, it has a lot of room between its Weekly Band. Plus, takeover rumors floating about so, not sure if the bollinger bands would apply. Plus, it is experiencing serious turbulence... looks like its going up ...
(DAMN! I just remembered, I had LCAV on my watchlist! SHEESE ... missed it)
One thing I have noticed, If it starts riding the upperband ... there's no telling when it will come back down. The most reliable situation seems to be when prices start to regularly oscilllate between upper and lower.
Weekly: stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LCAV&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43940016269&r=8249
Daily: stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LCAV&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p63760624690&r=2611
Take a look at GENZ, daily, 12 day BB periods...
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GENZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=t68841280682&r=4011
I bought Mar 70 calls at 66.5, for .25 cents, neglecting to project the peak to 70 ... Which was readily apparent. I corrected my mistake, by getting out at .40
While LCAV has just hit its Daily upperband, it has a lot of room between its Weekly Band. Plus, takeover rumors floating about so, not sure if the bollinger bands would apply. Plus, it is experiencing serious turbulence... looks like its going up ...
(DAMN! I just remembered, I had LCAV on my watchlist! SHEESE ... missed it)
One thing I have noticed, If it starts riding the upperband ... there's no telling when it will come back down. The most reliable situation seems to be when prices start to regularly oscilllate between upper and lower.
Weekly: stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LCAV&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43940016269&r=8249
Daily: stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LCAV&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p63760624690&r=2611
Take a look at GENZ, daily, 12 day BB periods...
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GENZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=t68841280682&r=4011
I bought Mar 70 calls at 66.5, for .25 cents, neglecting to project the peak to 70 ... Which was readily apparent. I corrected my mistake, by getting out at .40
Thanks for clearing the mist. I know next to nothing about technical indicators outside EMAs, RSI, MACD, Stochastic and DMI but use just MACD, DMI and EMAs. However, I am open to learning, hence my reason for the question.
Are there certain situations you look for with MACD, and DMI?
I have all of this data that I can query across 800 sercurities?
I have data for 5,12,14,16,26 day periods dating back to 2000.
(I went a little nuts for a while there ...
For instance, I think I evaluated the MACD and EMA crossing, I can actually query my database for that ...
I have all of this data that I can query across 800 sercurities?
I have data for 5,12,14,16,26 day periods dating back to 2000.
(I went a little nuts for a while there ...
For instance, I think I evaluated the MACD and EMA crossing, I can actually query my database for that ...
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