My Options Play

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Quote from pattersb:

Since then, I've been developing software, and a trading system(s) .... I've had some success, but my exit points are something to be desired...

Basically, I look for things that "don't make sense", (in my limited experience anyway) and trade against it.

I look for stocks that move upruptly out of its trading range, (bollinger bands) and trade against it. The software I developed can capture these moves, I pull data from INET's web services (nasdaq) and data mine.

For instance, I shorted FNM after a 3 move on little news, at 58.41 on 2/23/2006, 20 March puts at .30, it went to 2.20 in two days .... (but unbelievably, I didn't close out, and am selling today at hopefully 1.80 .... arggggh)
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Exit point should be a function of trading objective and style, which only you understand. You must have an objective before you initiate a trade; do you have any? Trading objective is more than buying/selling to make money. My goal is to double my capital in every trade, so I bail out when that is done, technical outlook notwithstanding!

Quote from pattersb:

I wanted to short SHLD at 133 on 3/16, but didn't have the balls, I would have tripled the money in 30 minutes ...

Any thoughts, suggestions, comments, nasty statements?

Bill P.
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Confidence is a function of knowledge, but knowledge comes with experience, so you'll have to practice until confidence is established.
 
Quote from cnms2:

I'll not take now a position in ATI.

Its setup seems to indicate a retracement coming (when? how deep?), but the difference between the current price and the first line of support (~$2) is too small compared to the stop loss (~$3); reward/risk ~.67. ATI's earnings report is scheduled for 4/20, IV is ~41% just a little above average.

Also, I don't see yet a good short entry signal.

On the other hand this is a newly traded company with a pretty bullish pattern, and I wouldn't enter short until a true reversal happens. I prefer to avoid retracements.
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I've noted some things on ATI. I did not initiate a trade.

ATI is headed north!
 
I think ATI will reverse down here at $56, but I don't have yet a confirmation of this. If it comes soon enough, it might be possible to make $3 in 3-5 days. We'll see.
Quote from Multioption:

I've noted some things on ATI. I did not initiate a trade.

ATI is headed north!
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just stocks over the years..........currently intradaytrade YM.........and some options even for protective purposes such as intel......Jan 07 put bgt 100 shares and put at the money.......150 for insurance..........might hold the stock a long time but don't trust the downside potential as it is getting hammered at every turn............msft is next.............pure option strangle...........leaps...
 
An interesting article: "Technical Signals In The S&P" by Charles B. Schaap, also printed in "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities" 2006 bonus issue.

It presents a multi-year analysis of the S&P using ADX / DMI, and concludes with: <table border="1" width="100%"> <td width="100%" bgcolor="#008080"><font color="#FFCC00" size="2"> <b>HEADING FOR A RETEST</b><br>
Market pundits love to speculate how high the market can go, but successful traders are less concerned with predictions than with preparation. Before they ask how high price can go, they first ask how low can it go. Key technical signals help the trader assess probabilities and manage risk.<br>
From these charts, ADX tells us that the monthly S&P trend is weak. The upward movement from 2003 represents an up retracement of the larger downtrend that started with the market bubble top in 2000. The DMI lines tell us that the S&P is directionally weak, while stochastics demonstrate bearish divergence.<br>
Currently, it appears that the S&P is headed down for a retest of the 2003 lows.</font></td>
</table>
 
Hard to read your posts because of the format you use ...

Anyway, if it works for you it's fine, but there are many arguments against using LEAPS. I suggest you should research carefully before risking your money.
Quote from porgie:

just stocks over the years..........currently intradaytrade YM.........and some options even for protective purposes such as intel......Jan 07 put bgt 100 shares and put at the money.......150 for insurance..........might hold the stock a long time but don't trust the downside potential as it is getting hammered at every turn............msft is next.............pure option strangle...........leaps...
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all options are high risk......... msft odds are almost all in my favor.........with cheap options........very cheap........and almos t 2 yrs to go.........trust me leaps are the better and safer ones.....no advice given just experience speaking........time is the only friend u have in options trading......
 
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