My Options Play

[uninvited_guest]

Multi's TA needs major adjustments. 3 of 4 trades have been made at the top, with sharp decline right after. Trying to come back from such a deficit with 50%+ of your account on such trades is insane.

FEAR, GREED, ANGER, DENIAL are all playing a big part in Multi's trading and causing him to make these trades. To comeback from a 50% loss you need a 100% gain, not easy.

TA shows you where the market HAS BEEN, like driving your car looking through the rear view mirror.

 

[cnms2]

Quote from iceman1:

its not (totally) out of the question for APA to trade to 70 or prehaps 67.50 -- by next Friday-- it only looks like it is based on recent price action. :eek:eek:

But more than likely it was a closing "buy".

Do a model and tell us where would those .10-.15 calls go should APA pop up to 67.50 by say 'wednesday' next week. Then decide if it was a good speculation from r/r viewpoint.

This looks like a good speculative buy. I drew the attached graphs for the 43% IV of the APA Nov 70 Calls. The 1st graph is for 1 contract, the 2nd graph is for 1,300 contracts: if APA recovers quickly above $65 you can make money on this speculative buy, after ~$20k invested, ~$10k slippage and commissions. Currently with APA at $64.52 and an IV of %39.5%, Nov 70 Calls are .1/.2 already.

 

[Rob on Business]

Quote from iceman1:

Want to say one more thing- it would not surpprise me at all to see VLO at >100 tomorrow or Monday !

Does that mean the markets are open tomorrow stateside - on Veteran's Day?

 

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from Rob on Business:

Does that mean the markets are open tomorrow stateside - on Veteran's Day?

Yes the US markets are open on Veteran's Day, has been for at least 5 years now. I was surprised when I first noticed the markets open on Veteran's Day.

 

[pinabetal]

iceman1

I can't see what you see. I don't see VLO making 100 friday nov 11th or even the following monday. I think it will make a LOWER low Friday, tommorrow. It may recover some monday. I will know more after close friday. Just wait and watch it make a lower low tommorrow in the morning part of the session probally in the early morning!

 

[iceman1]

Quote from pinabetal:

iceman1

I can't see what you see. I don't see VLO making 100 friday nov 11th or even the following monday. I think it will make a LOWER low Friday, tomorrow. It may recover some monday. I will know more after close friday. Just wait and watch it make a lower low tomorrow in the morning part of the session probably in the early morning!

you've been right on so far--

-- did you trade it though?

I was basing my projection on expiry pressures pushing it higher after the premium has now been sucked out of the front month calls on most of the strikes where there was large o/int - and rewarded the put buyers (who bought cheap 100/95p with excellent forsight). All of this has to be unwound next week.

obviously my direction on VLO sucks right now--- so I am obviously not the one to follow regarding it trading above 100 next week!

But that is my gut feel.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from pinabetal:

iceman1

I can't see what you see. I don't see VLO making 100 friday nov 11th or even the following monday. I think it will make a LOWER low Friday, tommorrow. It may recover some monday. I will know more after close friday. Just wait and watch it make a lower low tommorrow in the morning part of the session probally in the early morning!

just re-read your post

I meant by Nov 18th

** well on second thought I did say in that post- by the 11th

 

[pinabetal]

Quote from iceman1:

you've been right on so far--

-- did you trade it though?

I was basing my projection on expiry pressures pushing it higher after the premium has now been sucked out of the front month calls on most of the strikes where there was large o/int - and rewarded the put buyers (who bought cheap 100/95p with excellent forsight). All of this has to be unwound next week.

obviously my direction on VLO sucks right now--- so I am obviously not the one to follow regarding it trading above 100 next week!

But that is my gut feel.

You could be right and it may bounce back to 100 but I do not seeing it do so by monday. I see more weakness than strenght at this moment.

 

[mhashe]

Quote from pinabetal:

iceman1

I can't see what you see. I don't see VLO making 100 friday nov 11th or even the following monday. I think it will make a LOWER low Friday, tommorrow. It may recover some monday. I will know more after close friday. Just wait and watch it make a lower low tommorrow in the morning part of the session probally in the early morning!

Oil sector stocks more than other sectors seem to move with a herd mentality and XLE sold off hard today. I don't see VLO at 100 either next week. but next week is options expiration week and anything could happen.

 

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from mhashe:

Oil sector stocks more than other sectors seem to move with a herd mentality and XLE sold off hard today. I don't see VLO at 100 either next week. but next week is options expiration week and anything could happen.

Looks like Multi's APA trade got you guys interested in the energy sector at the wrong time. Thats how TA works, you don't spot the trend until its too late.