My option trades

[scottandmo]

Quote from babutime:

Hmm... that seems ok if your directional view is correct. I wanna know why Mr. Finch likes it...

AAPL is dominating the news right now. The rest of the headlines look pretty bleak. IMO it's a pure gamble, anything could happen esp with the FOMC meeting today. I am so tempted to buy a boatload of INTC weekly 27 puts at $.04, but I shouldn't.

APPL 535/600 calendars are sitting at a combined $100 loss right now.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from atticus:

Opened at 3400. Yes, I am clairvoyant.

I was wrong on this. But I still maintain then that the weeklies were too cheap.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from kinggyppo:

good call risk, the point really for people learning is that the volatility crush is real. I wonder how much money has been lost over the years by new traders that don't understand vol collapse.

But they would have made money in this case as the implied move was much lower.

 

[qqqoptions]

Quote from kinggyppo:

good call risk, the point really for people learning is that the volatility crush is real. I wonder how much money has been lost over the years by new traders that don't understand vol collapse.

I doubt "new traders" get caught up in vol collapse. If anything the high premiums would scare them away at first, then after earnings they would figure it out. At most maybe they get burned once.

 

[atticus]

The vol-crush isn't exploitable as realized vol is often 200% after the number. Tim Cook has been the driver of forecasting the following quarter a buck or two under their internal projections. They always beat by a mile as a result and the shares move 5-10%.

IBM's Palmisano was notorious for being conservative with forecasts and still being forced to buy-back shares to meet EPS. Of course they blew through their cash at a record rate. Dude it a complete shitbag.

 

[kinggyppo]

people make the same mistakes over and over, I am not thinking new traders know how to use a basic option calc to figure out how vol pricing effects the outcome............what do I know?

 

[Doobs789]

Quote from kinggyppo:

people make the same mistakes over and over, I am not thinking new traders know how to use a basic option calc to figure out how vol pricing effects the outcome............what do I know?

They'll have to figure out the hard way...I'm ok with eating their lunch though.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Doobs789:

They'll have to figure out the hard way...I'm ok with eating their lunch though.

a couple of things elude me, why are guys trading iron condors when they have no idea what they are doing? People don't know the most basic synthetics but they want to take down the CBOE crowd for size, LOL.

 

[jeffalvinson]

I just entered a new mechanical trade based on an older system that has a hit rate of about 65%:
SPY May 139 puts
Buy 1: 1.95 (filled)
Sell Limit: 2.45 (+25%) or if tanks before rising
Buy 2: 1.60 and then sell all at new
Sell Limit: 2.25
Stop: 1.46

Reward to Risk:
.65 + .30 = +.95
-.49 + -.14 = -.63

 

[jeffalvinson]

Also, If you open the attached chart of the SPX, Just like it was supporting on the way up since the beginning of the year, I am hoping the declining 20 day moving average (blue line) in the center of the declining channel (red lines) acts as failure resistance.