My option trades

Closed the iron at a scratch.

Short the AAPL May 470/625 strangle at 8.25 (10-lot, personal). Don't short naked unless you're willing to be assigned.

Edit: Also, long the 560/590/620 May fly from 4.50 risk.

Selling 4600 vol. Short most from 4700 in May (flat surface / 100bp across 30 handles) when I posted yesterday, so we've come in a little. Expecting 3500-3600 tomorrow in May.
 
Quote from atticus:

Closed the iron at a scratch.

Short the AAPL May 470/625 strangle at 8.25 (10-lot, personal). Don't short naked unless you're willing to be assigned.

Edit: Also, long the 560/590/620 May fly from 4.50 risk.

Selling 4600 vol. Short most from 4700 in May (flat surface / 100bp across 30 handles) when I posted yesterday, so we've come in a little. Expecting 3500-3600 tomorrow in May.
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makes sense to me, consensus seems to be may vol will come in ALOT!:)
 
Quote from atticus:


Edit: Also, long the 560/590/620 May fly from 4.50 risk.
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Vol has come in another 50bp. Fly is now 4.85 mid. I would not pay more than $5.00 for it. I am more confident in it as we trade lower on shares I would hate to flip on delta (modality, above 590), as it would be a very poor decision on this fly, even if it wins.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

How do you figure?



I expect it to trade at 40% (down about 700bps). I see this as being consistent with the weekly straddles that are priced at 7%ish in premium terms. If post earnings May will be 35 vol, then the weekly straddle should be about 8.8%ish to make you indifferent between may and the weekly. Given that the skew is so flat, and there being no reason (at least for me to believe) that that will change on the upside, a similar vol should be on every strike.
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I haven't responded as we'll know empirically in less than 24h, but ATM vol in May just printed a 44-handle, down from 47 yesterday. I still believe May will touch 3500bp tomorrow (+/- 30 OTM).

Fly just went 5.00 mid.
 
Quote from atticus:

I haven't responded as we'll know empirically in less than 24h, but ATM vol in May just printed a 44-handle, down from 47 yesterday. I still believe May will touch 3500bp tomorrow (+/- 30 OTM).

Fly just went 5.00 mid.
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5.35 mid, wtf? Covered some at 5.25.
 
Quote from atticus:



Edit: Also, long the 560/590/620 May fly from 4.50 risk.
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Out all but 10-lot (remaining) at 5.45 (current mid is 5.50)

zloetc.png
 
Quote from atticus:

Closed the iron at a scratch.

Short the AAPL May 470/625 strangle at 8.25 (10-lot, personal). Don't short naked unless you're willing to be assigned.

Edit: Also, long the 560/590/620 May fly from 4.50 risk.

Selling 4600 vol. Short most from 4700 in May (flat surface / 100bp across 30 handles) when I posted yesterday, so we've come in a little. Expecting 3500-3600 tomorrow in May.
More...

Are you still in the strangle?
 
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