My option trades

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Interesting, wasn't sure if it would be possible with win/loss below 50%, but it is interesting to point it all out in theory.

Have OPEN puts and also added to my WFMI calls at $1.90. The trend on WFM is just too strong right now. Unless, the market dramatically breaks down (like a 300-400 point drop), I can't see WFM breaking below $80. My options expire by the end of next week, so I don't plan on being in here long anyways.
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Here is W/L 40% with that method:
10 Trade Month:
4 X 100% Winners = +400%
6 X -50% Losers... = -300%
Net......................... = +100% (+10% account gain)

You can see a +10% account with W/L 40% isn't nearly as good as a +25% account gain with W/L 50%, but on the other hand it shows you that you can now and then have an off month where there is more losers than winners and still make a buck.
 
Thats interesting about losing 50% and exiting. Mind you he is trading earnings pops or something in stocks. I hear Apple moves at least 10% a day? Haven´t looked at it yet. I´m more conservative and like indexes. More stodgy in their movements.

I´m trying for one, maybe two trades a week. If I can clear 3% or 5% that works out okay and doubles your money in 6 or 7 months. Haven´t done it yet though. Just officially started January 1st this year. I´m more serious about ONLY going with the flow. Taking smaller chunks and getting out. The idea being to have a very high win ratio, to any loss. With volatility the premiums swell fast, and I have learned in previous years, that when the premiums still expand, and then start to shrink, the volatility going out of them, that even though an index can go higher and price higher, you are more likely to lose value, because of shrinkage in the premium from slacking off of the volatility. So I don´t wait for the price highs, just the volatility and premium ballooning to stall out. THEN EXIT.

AS that is it, I do not have a stop loss kind of mentality. Or if I do, it is premium swelling volatility because of the surge experienced. Whens the surge slows, I´m OUT. The idea to have a high win ratio.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING OTHERWISE OF COURSE.
 
Just came back from my swim in the warm waters over the white sand nearby. Ryan I think it was you asked? I have a web page someplace on the internet from some years back, about retiring in Belize and the costs. You get good enough at what you are doing, 35 is not too young to retire! ( grin ) I retired really at about 24 yrs. I was broke, but if you call bumming around on sailboats in the Caribbean I was more or less retired. Good life choice, wish I could do it again.
 
Lovely day out my open front door. The secret magic buy signal is setting up. Almost completed. Think I have time to go barefoot in some shorts and walk a block or two in the shade of the coconut trees, in my barefeet, then when I get back, see if I have a buy signal yet? I´ll leave the computer running.
 
Okay Ryan

I got into two orders on Friday. First one was a targeted buy, 2 QQQ 61 Calls @ $2.90 The second order an hour before the close, when my NEW selected SECRET MAGIC BUY INDICATOR completed and gave me a buy signal. This one for 3 QQQ 62 CALLS @ $2.33

I´m expecting this to be a 5 day trade thereabouts ?
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My reading of the market is that the volatility has gone out of it. But that the Bull trend is still in force at this time. We shall see if I can scalp .31 cents?
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On my SECRET MAGIC BUY INDICATOR. Not sure if it going to work in all market conditions, so we shall only see by live performance. I designed about a 100 indicators over the last year. Kept sifting through them, until I got them down to the best 6 indicators. Since expanded that list of 6 indicators to 18 indicators, for different technical reasons. As you may be aware technical indicators work on historical data and while they can tell you what has happened and often where exactly you are in the present. Thousands of traders also have their own indicators doing the same thing. So you cannot forecast the future. Also indicators in current moment, are usually lagging three bars or more, behind future price action. So it is a battle of the winners anticipating the losers and reading of indicators, and guessing what will happen.
When you trade indexes you trade the market in general and consequently it is a constant battle of interpretation and guessing what the future will bring and who can outwit the other trader. The market is usually either in a Bull trend, a Bear trend and a range bound congestion period. The time periods fluctuate as the gamblers try to out guess each other. Got to go through the 3 market conditions to actually see how well my SECRET MAGIC BUY INDICATOR will perform in those three market conditions.

Anyway, I´m holding two trades and may actually put on a third next week, as I am waiting for a slower type signal to occur.
 
Well Ryan has certainly amused me and going from $2700 to $7500 in 3 months or less, says something for his system. I had jumped into his thread part way through and since it is the wee hours of the morning here, thought I would go look how his thread started.

I loved it. Entertainment at it´s finest. All the grumpy old men, giving advice and bitching and complaining about Ryan was not following THEIR accepted practices. He was going to go broke, etc. Ha! Ha! Loved it, really, I´m still chuckling.

His study of stocks and earnings reports sound interesting, but I´m a lazy fellow, don´t want to go that route. Too much work. I´ve finally come to the conclusion this is a hobby and entertainment for me, though for a while in the beginning I thought I might become a professional.

So long as I can get ahead of the game, will keep on chugging like the Easter Bunny.

Since I´ve tried all the true and time tested methods of the grumpy old men, I sympathize with Ryan. Indeed, in my amateurs opinion he is doing the right thing. Forget the complicated strategies. Just buy and sell, and you have naturally one chance in three of being right. Now he has an edge, with his stock studies, so nothing wrong with how he is gambling. Though I did think it better when he cut back on position size.

Myself, I divide my account in half from my initial investment. Half if I hit it, is QUIT time. Otherwise I gamble with whatever is above that half of the initial stake. Not always all of that, but most of the time. I drop back in size whenever I take a loss. Usually to one contract and start again, using the theory of runs. And start building up my risk and contract sizes again as I win. Bit slower, but safer. Other than that, I agree with Ryan, it is about winning and you cannot win if you don´t risk.

I´m still chuckling to myself, thinking about all the early critiques on his list at the beginning. Man have I heard all that before and probably wasted two years of my life listening to it and screwing around trying THEIR ideas. You got to develop your own style mon!

You don´t argue with $2700 to $7500 in three months.
 
Quote from HurricaneUS:

subbed....and making popcorn as we speak....

Ryan you're ON FIRE like Jeremy Lin!!!!!!


You're on this guys trajectory:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=141574&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

just don't disappear like he did after you make all that moolah..

I'm in for the ride...
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After those two losses on Friday and took the weekend to relax lol....but I did set a goal of $18,000 by end of year. I'd have to stop at the level to rejuvenate because I can alsmost see myself losing it and going no where beyond that goal as I didn't plan on setting up a higher goal at the moment. I'll say this much, I underestimated the potential gains in options. Back in the stock trading days, the few +1000 I made here would have been no more than $500-$800 on the equity side. And I'm talking the trade like NFLX and GMCR where I made $1298 and $1684. If I had only been in the stock, my gains would have been somthing like $500 and $800. Now, I'm not exactly sure when I'll reach my $18000 profit target, but I have a feeling its not going to be at the end of 2012 anymore.
 
Quote from falconview:

Lovely day out my open front door. The secret magic buy signal is setting up. Almost completed. Think I have time to go barefoot in some shorts and walk a block or two in the shade of the coconut trees, in my barefeet, then when I get back, see if I have a buy signal yet? I´ll leave the computer running.
More...

I'm starting to like Belize....lol, I was actually born in France before parents migrated to US in the 80s. At this point the only place I'd ever consider visiting that's not on the mainland is Hawaii and US Virgin Islands, but reading the experience you have in Belize has given me a different view of other countries in the nearby Southern continent. It's just all this turmoil that the US has created gives me the feeling that every other country practically hates US citizens right now.
 
Quote from ryanpatrick:

After those two losses on Friday and took the weekend to relax lol....but I did set a goal of $18,000 by end of year. I'd have to stop at the level to rejuvenate because I can alsmost see myself losing it and going no where beyond that goal as I didn't plan on setting up a higher goal at the moment. I'll say this much, I underestimated the potential gains in options. Back in the stock trading days, the few +1000 I made here would have been no more than $500-$800 on the equity side. And I'm talking the trade like NFLX and GMCR where I made $1298 and $1684. If I had only been in the stock, my gains would have been somthing like $500 and $800. Now, I'm not exactly sure when I'll reach my $18000 profit target, but I have a feeling its not going to be at the end of 2012 anymore.
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That's perfectly fine...move at your own pace and MANAGE YOUR RISK and you'll be ballin in a few years...think "long-term - ie., 3-5 years+" and "compounding returns"

from my end it doesn't look like there's much you need to change...just grind it out day in and day out at YOUR PACE and methodically grow your account...and you'll be just fine....:)

nice thread btw
 
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