Too many trades, I'm taking losses in trlg and lnkd....
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My option trades
- Thread starter ryanpatrick
- Start date
That is my modus operendi.
When VIX is below 22, and below 19, I am setting profit targets in the QQQ moves of .30 cents. When it gets to VIX 22 and over, I expect .50 cents to a $1.25. In either case, soon as the volatility in a move stops climbing, I´m exiting.
The other day it went down to VIX 14 and was seriously considering a trade for .14 cents. With 6 cents being for commissions. Hardly worth trading it. Still, to keep the hand in so to speak, would trade a minimum lot, or one contract. Can´t really increase the number of contracts until the VIX gets over 22.
_______________________________
I was re-learning how to DEBIT SPREAD from Ryan. Now I remember why I do not do them. ( I´m old and forgetful ) If you are accurate enough to forecast a POP with a 99% accuracy in anything, enough to cover the TRUE RANGE sufficient to collect a profit from a Vertical. Then I had long ago come to the conclusion you would be more profitable and better off, just trading straight by buying. So have sidelined the interesting DEBIT SPREAD idea again. With a moving volatility mental stop, tracking the change, you can exit and still show a profit of some sort, even if you just cover your commissions on a straight buy order. Whereas in a VERTICAL SPREAD you HAVE to cover more of a mini-trend in whatever you are trading, to break even, or take a loss, at least the commission loss.
My mantra is: do not take losses EVER, if it can be avoided. The profits, tiny, medium or large do not matter. Nor can I forecast the length of a trend. I´m trying to keep any loss small, hopefully just to commissions through TIMING. IF you time it right, you can. If you are wrong and the flutter in the market is a bit wider than you want, a reversal can cost you a loss, plus the loss of commissions. But nothing like getting eaten alive by small trends that abruptly stop when you are holding a VERTICAL.
When VIX is below 22, and below 19, I am setting profit targets in the QQQ moves of .30 cents. When it gets to VIX 22 and over, I expect .50 cents to a $1.25. In either case, soon as the volatility in a move stops climbing, I´m exiting.
The other day it went down to VIX 14 and was seriously considering a trade for .14 cents. With 6 cents being for commissions. Hardly worth trading it. Still, to keep the hand in so to speak, would trade a minimum lot, or one contract. Can´t really increase the number of contracts until the VIX gets over 22.
_______________________________
I was re-learning how to DEBIT SPREAD from Ryan. Now I remember why I do not do them. ( I´m old and forgetful ) If you are accurate enough to forecast a POP with a 99% accuracy in anything, enough to cover the TRUE RANGE sufficient to collect a profit from a Vertical. Then I had long ago come to the conclusion you would be more profitable and better off, just trading straight by buying. So have sidelined the interesting DEBIT SPREAD idea again. With a moving volatility mental stop, tracking the change, you can exit and still show a profit of some sort, even if you just cover your commissions on a straight buy order. Whereas in a VERTICAL SPREAD you HAVE to cover more of a mini-trend in whatever you are trading, to break even, or take a loss, at least the commission loss.
My mantra is: do not take losses EVER, if it can be avoided. The profits, tiny, medium or large do not matter. Nor can I forecast the length of a trend. I´m trying to keep any loss small, hopefully just to commissions through TIMING. IF you time it right, you can. If you are wrong and the flutter in the market is a bit wider than you want, a reversal can cost you a loss, plus the loss of commissions. But nothing like getting eaten alive by small trends that abruptly stop when you are holding a VERTICAL.
Last night my trading system had an output for a put trade:
02-10 *FEB133C 2.68 2.81 2.97 2.29 2.74
2012 *FEB137P 2.24 2.07 2.67 1.89 2.05
P7 P7 P23 PL4=DN PM25=L5
C=39 EM=6 +++ P=21 EM=29 --- R=1.9 SL1=P
FEB137P BUY LIMIT=1.50 SELL LIMIT=2.10 STOP=1.10
The problem is, the futures are already massively negative, so the
FEB137 PUT (which closed last night at 2.05) will probably open at
at least 2.50 or >.
So there's no possibility of the BUY LIMIT=1.50 ENTRY being filled.
The system is often correct on the next day's direction, but the futures will simply not allow a trade entry.
Filled trades are infrequent and it requires a lot of patience.
Jeff
02-10 *FEB133C 2.68 2.81 2.97 2.29 2.74
2012 *FEB137P 2.24 2.07 2.67 1.89 2.05
P7 P7 P23 PL4=DN PM25=L5
C=39 EM=6 +++ P=21 EM=29 --- R=1.9 SL1=P
FEB137P BUY LIMIT=1.50 SELL LIMIT=2.10 STOP=1.10
The problem is, the futures are already massively negative, so the
FEB137 PUT (which closed last night at 2.05) will probably open at
at least 2.50 or >.
So there's no possibility of the BUY LIMIT=1.50 ENTRY being filled.
The system is often correct on the next day's direction, but the futures will simply not allow a trade entry.
Filled trades are infrequent and it requires a lot of patience.
Jeff
I was up to 8500, but lnkd put spread and trlg calls pulled me back to 7200 this morning. I'd like to hold this 7200. Added OPEN feb 45 puts at 2.15, testing the downside of this market with this trade. Also added LNKD feb 85 calls at 0.70 weeklys expiring today using 5 calls for 350 risk.
If I'm right I think lnkd could hit $88 sometime today. But that's a 50/50 chance there for today. Reason why it's a $350 risk and not $500 or more. This is where I'll take my chances.
If the market wants to go down, we're going to need AAPL to stop making highs...otherwise, I can see AAPL will the market another notch higher.
can't complain, losing -851 on the trlg and lnkd put trade from yesterday, but closed out lnkd calls for a quick +374 return. I'll consider the -477 net loss as lucky for now as I've only done this reverse trade twice with APKT being the first time.
Well I´m in this a.m.
2 April QQQ 61 CALLS @ $2.90/
Got my pre-planned dip. But actually do not have a buy signal yet from my " SECRET MAGIC BUY TRADE INDICATOR"
Maybe I will buy again if I get such a signal a little later this morning?
2 April QQQ 61 CALLS @ $2.90/
Got my pre-planned dip. But actually do not have a buy signal yet from my " SECRET MAGIC BUY TRADE INDICATOR"
Maybe I will buy again if I get such a signal a little later this morning?
Out of DIS and QCOM, the small gain and loss cancels each other out lol.....waste of time on these lesson learned.
Quote from falconview:
Well I´m in this a.m.
2 April QQQ 61 CALLS @ $2.90/
Got my pre-planned dip. But actually do not have a buy signal yet from my " SECRET MAGIC BUY TRADE INDICATOR"
Maybe I will buy again if I get such a signal a little later this morning?
Well, you've got AAPL supporting you on the Qs. I bet all is calm as long as AAPL hits all time highs again. I'll have to check the new high vs. new low on the nasdaq index again in 2 hours, but at 13 new high vs 9 new low, that's a ratio just above 1, not the 10-20:1 ratio I've seen over the past 2 weeks.