My option trades

Quote from iceman1:

what made you believe RVBD was going to 'pop' higher?

wish I had bought puts! lol
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Momentum and chart pattern....it clearly broke that down trend line that held it lower for past year or so and earnings started to pick up from last quarter's report. I just felt the momentum going into here would be up. Same way with SYNA...I noticed SYNA reported weaker numbers and its still getting bid up....just like last quarter...just a change an investor sentiment. I was cautious on RVBD though, where as with SYNA trying to test new highs, I felt more confident there. Works out in the end with -185 loss in RVBD and so far a nice +520 pop in SYNA. I'm alrready looking to next week..

Like the plays in GMCR (another netflix in the making). I started with 2 long gmcr feb (weeklys) 55 calls at 2.75. I don't know what I'll do with this one just yet. Also like ALGN to start the week. Not going to get into BRCM though, it's just asking to be shot down....strangle on AMZN might be nice, and trades on nus, and ma would also work for me.
 
Quote from ryanpatrick:

Momentum and chart pattern....it clearly broke that down trend line that held it lower for past year or so and earnings started to pick up from last quarter's report. I just felt the momentum going into here would be up. Same way with SYNA...I noticed SYNA reported weaker numbers and its still getting bid up....just like last quarter...just a change an investor sentiment. I was cautious on RVBD though, where as with SYNA trying to test new highs, I felt more confident there. Works out in the end with -185 loss in RVBD and so far a nice +520 pop in SYNA. I'm alrready looking to next week..

Like the plays in GMCR (another netflix in the making). I started with 2 long gmcr feb (weeklys) 55 calls at 2.75. I don't know what I'll do with this one just yet
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i also really thought RVBD would be higher - thought earlier gap would be a possible target - why the hell did it sell off

also, on GMCR.... what makes you think it gores higher?

This time I'm gonna strangle or straddle - maybe front with back month - stock is up 10 this month.

thanks for the idea!!

my 125p on FFIV have worked out - stock hit <117 today also in march 130c (back ratio w/125c) + long front 125/130 debit spread (1/2) just in case we get a post-expiry pop

looks like it could trade <115
 
this is cute


Zacks has a #1 rating (Str. Buy) on RVBD and now has a +4 on GMCR (Sell) . Back on October 24th Zacks' had a Buy rating on GMCR and it was cut in half from that level.

think about it; people actually pay these clowns for advice.

based on Zacks being an obvious contrary indicator, GMCR should move higher. lol
 
Quote from iceman1:

this is cute


Zacks has a #1 rating (Str. Buy) on RVBD and now has a +4 on GMCR (Sell) . Back on October 24th Zacks' had a Buy rating on GMCR and it was cut in half from that level.

think about it; people actually pay these clowns for advice.

based on Zacks being an obvious contrary indicator, GMCR should move higher. lol
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You know, those are key data there. I actually use analyst ratings and price target to get a contrarian view on trades I want to get in. The key is to go in the opposite direction that these "clowns" are recommending. lol. It helps confirm my other research. Nice one on FFIV, but becareful, there were plenty of reasons for FFIV to just sell off today. What I noticed was a solid reversal on FFIV.

As for GMCR, I've been looking at it for the past 3-4 hours. reading all data from its previous report. guidance was inline, revenue was up 100% yoy, in margins were increasing. It think the shares were played down by bogus reports from one of those hedge fund guys because he wants to get in. Interesting point on the chart was 4 straight weeks of support at $45. One fund had to be buying shares while everyone else was selling.

I think if we see an increase in margins and guidance that matches estimates for Q2 and FY if any, then GMCR makes up the drop and I'm looking for $70-$76. That gap 3 months ago looks like the exhaustion gap. It would be interesting if we see an island gap. I'm going with weeklys, possibly 55 calls 2 contracts with $550-$600 risk. At this risk, I'm just risking my gains from SYNA (SYNA gains have dropped back to $400s).

Going to spend the next 2-3 hours reviewing ALGN.
 
Quote from Bry:

wondering what your balance is now?

you started with $2686, right?

hope ur up
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I was actually down to $1700s by start of this year. But got serious. I'm actually up to $5352 with positions in swk, ibm, rvbd, and syna. Still quite a ways to my first target of $18,000. so I'll continue on.
 
Quote from raphaelg:

Hey ryan, i am watching this thread for the last week or so and i was wondering how do you choose the stocks you trade on?

I see you have quite a lot of different stocks you seem to watch and i wanted to know how do choose them, is it with news, earnings calendar, or some specific technical?

As a new option trader myself i was wondering,

Raph
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I'm all earnings....but I have 5 years experience in trading earning stocks....new to options but been trading these earning trades for a while, so I actually have data on most of these stocks...mostly mid/large cap stocks. I do use http://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar.asp?way=P&day=-11&s=n to find stocks reporting earnings.

Also keep in mind that this is my options account. It's small and is separate from all other investments. You don't want to go out and put all your money into options like this. I learned that it can go either way after losing -1400 last week on GOOG and PH.
 
Well, I'm out for the week. Here's what I have for ALGN

Huge 35% pop in November, because guidance was strong and $150M repurchase announced. In August, number was solid, but guidance was inline with estimates, plus market was in bearish trend. Last April was also a solid report with strong guidance and earnings with a 15% pop. The chart last April is exactly how ALGN's chart right now is setting up where shares are trading at the top of the range and ready to break to new highs. The Earning gap breaks the high then shares retreat back.

I see a repeat here of that move, with shares prob getting to $28-$29 as long as guidance is strong. ALGN will also be giving FY12 guidance here, so it could be a double push if earnings are strong. The reversal on ALGN's earning happened last April when earnings finally picked up and earning has been solid since with August's drop having more to do with the market's bear trend. I'll be in $400-$500 on this trade too, just too good to past up now.
 
wow, ryanpatrick, you are doing great! keep it up, man!

am going to have to spend more time reading thru all your posts, hope you gave us some ideas how you trade earnings

i have to admit i was worried, and naysayers were expecting you to blow up soon; but u have proved them wrong; pls continue to do so
(but u do have more experience than first seemed)

thanks, success to you, bry



I was actually down to $1700s by start of this year. But got serious. I'm actually up to $5352 with positions in swk, ibm, rvbd, and syna. Still quite a ways to my first target of $18,000. so I'll continue on. [/QUOTE]
 
Quote from ryanpatrick:

Nice one on FFIV, but becareful, there were plenty of reasons for FFIV to just sell off today. What I noticed was a solid reversal on FFIV.

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FFIV

only problem is the gap post-earnings gap; however, by trading to 116 3/4 Friday it 'closed' a % of the gap. Now, if it does not trade lower than I agree it might move higher. actually, prior to yesterday, it was forming a 'rising wedge' which I expected to take it to 127 +/- and then reverse to 110-115. AH on Friday it was at 118.70 but that might have been late options expiry unwinding.

GMCR
ALGN

The only issue with Feb earnings is that January has been very strong across the board, and as you noted in an earlier post, the broad market has to be factored in; if we have a small correction in early Feb then will this impact GMCR 2/1/12 post-earnings move? If however we continue moving higher for most of Q1 (unlikely) with only small pullbacks that's a diff story.

NFLX went down in a weaker and uncertain market environment on its' last earnings report. So it figured this time would be opposite given market strength.

Is this 'reasoning' applicable to algn and gmcr?

b.t.w that is why I am surprised RVBD sold off.
 
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