My option trades

[iceman1]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Well, putting my theory to work....if I'm right, AAPL should be around $435-$440 by Friday. Bought 2 AAPL Jan 28 $445 puts at $2.14....Small position, just to test it out. Already made $700 in TPX, so that's the profits I'll be risking.

good job on TPX

wish I saw your post earlier - would have bought some calls. looked bullish when I looked last evening. Do you now think TPX might be a short/puts if it nears 69-70? Obviously these gaps will resolve at some point. Have you found after +earnings report they trend even higher? Market has had a big move, at some point there will be a greater r/r to the downside.

i'm actually long PH feb 80c for several days looking for it to close all or part of 1/20 gap and hit anywhere from 82.50- 85; will add march85c and sell 2xs feb 85c

 

[ryanpatrick]

Okay, just learned that I put in a condor trade for NFLX

Let's see here....these are all Jan 27 weeklys:
bought nflx 105 call/ sold nflx 115 call
bought nflx 85 put/sold nflx 75 put

net cost for me per trade was $3.65. I bought 2 as putting all this together actually saved me commission.

I'm risking about $730 total for $1270 net return. I think that looks about right in theory, although actual loss and returns are totally different.

As for TPX, I'll get back to you on my data....Have traded this stock on earnings for past 3 years, so I have plenty of data.

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from iceman1:

good job on TPX

wish I saw your post earlier - would have bought some calls. looked bullish when I looked last evening. Do you now think TPX might be a short/puts if it nears 69-70? Obviously these gaps will resolve at some point. Have you found after +earnings report they trend even higher? Market has had a big move, at some point there will be a greater r/r to the downside.

i'm actually long PH feb 80c for several days looking for it to close all or part of 1/20 gap and hit anywhere from 82.50- 85; will add march85c and sell 2xs feb 85c

Last July TPX rallied by 9.42% to close out day after earnings, but dropped 24% by the time front month options expired.

In April 201, TPX rallied 3% to close out day after earnings, and on this one it jumped 10% as the front month expired.

I think it depends on the market's direction for TPX, there's no individual movement here.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Well, putting my theory to work....if I'm right, AAPL should be around $435-$440 by Friday. Bought 2 AAPL Jan 28 $445 puts at $2.14....Small position, just to test it out. Already made $700 in TPX, so that's the profits I'll be risking.

may I ask why you are giving yourself just 2 days to be 'right' - what if it sells of on Monday, not by Friday?!

curious why you look only to front month or week - more bang for the buck !?

 

[TraderBoy23]

I know ryan mentioned it earlier somewhere (or I think he did) I would look into semi conductors. TXN didn't do great, but a lot of others did, especially in that space. Any suppliers to AAPL probably will do good haha. But BRCM is likely going to report a great quarter, at least I think so. It's had a few good entry points this week. They already came out a few weeks ago and said they were going to have a good quarter, but seems as though it was ignored with all the market frenzy going on. Anywho, I'd go long with calls or call spreads. just my 2 cents tho

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from iceman1:

may I ask why you are giving yourself just 2 days to be 'right' - what if it sells of on Monday, not by Friday?!

curious why you look only to front month or week - more bang for the buck !?

I've seen AAPL do this maybe 2-3 quarters ago....it traded up in premarket then immediately trailed off for 2-3 days with almost no resistance in that short term trend. That's what I'm looking for here too. I'm in it to test that theory out. I'm not making a big bet here, if I'm right, look for a bigger trade next time around, but if I'm wrong, the I'm giving back most of the TPX profits and that's that.

For a time there I was actually looking at a nice gain with the puts as high as $3.50, but they have come back to my entry point. I figured I'd be selling tomorrow around $0.50-$1.00 per contract at worst.

I also added 2 SWK feb 72.5 call at $2.00 a $400 play here, just small and no spreads or anything....more than likely I'm looking to cash in on a NFLX move. That's what I'm hoping for.

As with the post above me, yep I do like BRCM, and I think there's still time to get into that one. Instead of this Q's result, for BRCM it will be forward guidance that will make the difference. Still, with AAPL looking like that, it's almost a safe play.

 

[iceman1]

bought (1) NDX 2425p @1.50

testing

also scaling into SQQQ Feb 14c - bought (3) @175 - then tried to sell feb18c @55

been a while since I traded NDX; was trading the MNX but illiquid/ spreads too wide.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from ryanpatrick:

Okay, just learned that I put in a condor trade for NFLX

Let's see here....these are all Jan 27 weeklys:
bought nflx 105 call/ sold nflx 115 call
bought nflx 85 put/sold nflx 75 put

net cost for me per trade was $3.65. I bought 2 as putting all this together actually saved me commission.

I'm risking about $730 total for $1270 net return. I think that looks about right in theory, although actual loss and returns are totally different.
/B]

when you do earnings plays do you give consideration to impl vola?

nflx +9-10 AH so will you close both sides of 105/115c or get "cute" and see if you can let 105c 'run away' further - given the earlier open gap to approx 120? I tend to get cute and it almost always hurts me.

figured this time the pop would be to upside given market strength; angry I didn't trade it. traded it last earnings with condor also. dropped to 73 AH

only problem with playing earnings via weekly is if you miss one side you have no opportunity to repair the strategy and recoup (i.e. the 85/75p) - had you done Febs you might see NFLX back in the 90s and "maybe" you can convert to 85/90p

once again, my weakness is I tend to complicate trades too much

 

[iceman1]

Quote from ryanpatrick:



I'm looking ahead to trades into BRCM and CRUS too....

.

What target for CRUS

think maybe buying puts or shorting CRUS might be indicated - looks like it gone parabolic. might be good for a 3-5 pt downside, or more after earnings. what am i missing? of course maybe it trades higher for next 2 months and then takes a hit

 

[ryanpatrick]

Quote from iceman1:

when you do earnings plays do you give consideration to impl vola?

nflx +9-10 AH so will you close both sides of 105/115c or get "cute" and see if you can let 105c 'run away' further - given the earlier open gap to approx 120? I tend to get cute and it almost always hurts me.

figured this time the pop would be to upside given market strength; angry I didn't trade it. traded it last earnings with condor also. dropped to 73 AH

only problem with playing earnings via weekly is if you miss one side you have no opportunity to repair the strategy and recoup (i.e. the 85/75p) - had you done Febs you might see NFLX back in the 90s and "maybe" you can convert to 85/90p

once again, my weakness is I tend to complicate trades too much

Imp. vol does nothing....if the earnings are strong, the stock will still turn. What I look at more closely is its chart. (support and resistance levels, moving averages 10, 50, 100, and 200 days, where RSI is compared to recent trend). Like NFLX, I went 105/115 based on that gap closing at $120. I would have only gone long, except there's a downtrend line that also marks recent highs. So just incase numbers are bad, NFLX would have immediately tested $70s in my opinion. On the other hand, a solid report should push NFLX up to $120 and test that level. And I'm expecting the test right away too (1-2 days post earnings) rather than 2-3 weeks later. I will try to leg out and see what happens.....it worked with VMW, but I'll need to review my notes on NFLX first.