No such thing as a missed trade, there are multiple opportunities EVERY DAY. What a nut job you are.
My OPTION TRADES..... part 2
- Thread starter Put_Master
- Start date
No such thing as a missed trade, there are multiple opportunities EVERY DAY. What a nut job you are.
There are only multiple opportunities every day, if you are a dart thrower.
I'm a lot more picky than that.
Clearly you're not.
I have a small basket of stocks that present great trading opportunities everyday. QQQ,AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, GLD, USO, FXE, and AMZN. That's it - 8 tickers.
I'm still waiting for you to add some substance to this thread.
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diaoptions has spoken
The only issues I have with this thread is the fact that it's virtually identical to Shirley's stuff, but with added vola. That tech stock seems too close for comfort for the teenies you're receiving.
At least the fills are legit, unlike some threads in which the offer is half of the price quoted in the thread.
PM, if you're bullish and want to see decay... why not trade an upside calendar, fly or vert?
And WTF is everyone beating up on Dan Shirley and (lol redacted)..... why is everyone beating up on PM?
At least the fills are legit, unlike some threads in which the offer is half of the price quoted in the thread.
PM, if you're bullish and want to see decay... why not trade an upside calendar, fly or vert?
And WTF is everyone beating up on Dan Shirley and (lol redacted)..... why is everyone beating up on PM?
Putty man... you are volatility trading and you don't like to accept that fact... i'm not a downer on most of your philosophy but i do think you avoid the complexities of the volatility assumption in options by falling back on your laurels.. and by the i mean you "stock picking skills" or as you kind of phrase it.. don't take it verbatim here but.. "recoverbility of the stock"
maybe if you were saying.. well volatility is low and i know i'm not getting good premium because i am speculating thats because there is to be a rise in the stock.. which is in turn saying that the put is overpriced that your selling... but just looking at it for its annual return and as well how "great" you think the fundamental outlook is .. is missing the idea of trading options in the first place... i really think it would help you to look further into this.. you might find taking smaller positions in vertical debit spreads.. calenders and or butterflys which will add alot of weaponry to your repertoire.
your volatility trading even if you don't believe it... your book is short vol... when you sell puts your short vol.. when you own stock your short vol.. and when you have covered calls in your book your short vol... the reason alot of people trade in these other strategies is because they want more money to expose themselves to short volatility trades! and this has nothing to do with being overlevered in credit spreads.. ask yourself..
how correlated is your book, what happens to my book upon different volatility assumptions... is my book Fragile.. meaning will it break easy with volatility.. or is it Antifragile meaning it will gain in times of heavy vol.. just saying . don't get caught arguing simple points with guys that just wanna fucking with you and be a dick.... read more instead of talking to Mr. Dan surely and look a little deeper into the assumptions of your trades...
Quote from atticus:
<<< The only issues I have with this thread is the fact that it's virtually identical to Shirley's stuff, but with added vola. That tech stock seems too close for comfort for the teenies you're receiving. >>>
The main difference between this thread and Dan's, in terms of stock pics, strategies and discussion is, his stock pics tend to be trending up. Mine are always trending down.
Also he does not want to discuss his pics. Mine are posted for discussion, debate, consideration, ect....
Also, many of his are posted merely for him to refer back to for study and are not actual trades.
Mine are all real and in real time. If I forget to post a trade or am too busy that day, it won't ever be posted. It's either shared the same day or not at all.
So except for those few issues, the threads really are virtually identical.
As for the tech stock being too close, as I stated in a previous post, I pick my stock strikes based on where the tech support is, relative to how volatile the stock is.
The tech support is around $10, per the 5 year chart I posted.
Hence my strike of $9, with a BE of $8.70.
But also remember, I really don't mind if a stock gets put to me, as long as I can earn a double digit % return on it via a subsequent covered call.
Thus, while a drop to the $7.70 area might freak out a spread trader, I don't mind holding this financially healthy reasonably priced company, going through a temporary difficult time.
Hence the reason all my stocks tend to be trending down when I sell puts on them. My focus is on price.
<<< PM, if you're bullish and want to see decay... why not trade an upside calendar, fly or vert? >>>
I don't like that it's too easy for me to lose control over my trades, when I turn them into spreads. I don't like that they limit my ability to "choose" what I can consider doing during difficult times.... besides closing them down for a loss. Perhaps a total loss.
(BTW, I don't consider a 70 - 80% loss vs a total, as all that great a deal either). Going naked give me the choice and freedom to buy and hold if I want to.
But then again, because of that added risk and responsibility, I try to be very picky what stocks and what prices I select.
Plus, you know how I feel about the risk of over leveraging. It's almost impossible not to over leverage if you are spreading. I use leverage with my naked puts. But it's reasonable leverage.
And because of the excessive leverage of spreads, TIME is actually working against you.
Your trade may be right, but if your TIMING is wrong with spreads,.... you can lose everything. Because of the excessive leverage, there is rarely an opportunity for buying and holding most trades with spreads.
<<< And WTF is everyone beating up on Dan Shirley and (lol redacted)..... why is everyone beating up on PM? >>>
I don't mind a gentle spanking once in a while. Perhaps I even deserve it at times.
I don't think I beat up on Dan. In fact I recently thanked him for acknowledging his error, regarding the use of excessive leverage with his spreads. I merely point to Dan as an example to others, who may also be using excessive leverage with their spreads, but don't realize it.
That's all for tonight. Read you all in the am.
<<< The only issues I have with this thread is the fact that it's virtually identical to Shirley's stuff, but with added vola. That tech stock seems too close for comfort for the teenies you're receiving. >>>
The main difference between this thread and Dan's, in terms of stock pics, strategies and discussion is, his stock pics tend to be trending up. Mine are always trending down.
Also he does not want to discuss his pics. Mine are posted for discussion, debate, consideration, ect....
Also, many of his are posted merely for him to refer back to for study and are not actual trades.
Mine are all real and in real time. If I forget to post a trade or am too busy that day, it won't ever be posted. It's either shared the same day or not at all.
So except for those few issues, the threads really are virtually identical.
As for the tech stock being too close, as I stated in a previous post, I pick my stock strikes based on where the tech support is, relative to how volatile the stock is.
The tech support is around $10, per the 5 year chart I posted.
Hence my strike of $9, with a BE of $8.70.
But also remember, I really don't mind if a stock gets put to me, as long as I can earn a double digit % return on it via a subsequent covered call.
Thus, while a drop to the $7.70 area might freak out a spread trader, I don't mind holding this financially healthy reasonably priced company, going through a temporary difficult time.
Hence the reason all my stocks tend to be trending down when I sell puts on them. My focus is on price.
<<< PM, if you're bullish and want to see decay... why not trade an upside calendar, fly or vert? >>>
I don't like that it's too easy for me to lose control over my trades, when I turn them into spreads. I don't like that they limit my ability to "choose" what I can consider doing during difficult times.... besides closing them down for a loss. Perhaps a total loss.
(BTW, I don't consider a 70 - 80% loss vs a total, as all that great a deal either). Going naked give me the choice and freedom to buy and hold if I want to.
But then again, because of that added risk and responsibility, I try to be very picky what stocks and what prices I select.
Plus, you know how I feel about the risk of over leveraging. It's almost impossible not to over leverage if you are spreading. I use leverage with my naked puts. But it's reasonable leverage.
And because of the excessive leverage of spreads, TIME is actually working against you.
Your trade may be right, but if your TIMING is wrong with spreads,.... you can lose everything. Because of the excessive leverage, there is rarely an opportunity for buying and holding most trades with spreads.
<<< And WTF is everyone beating up on Dan Shirley and (lol redacted)..... why is everyone beating up on PM? >>>
I don't mind a gentle spanking once in a while. Perhaps I even deserve it at times.
I don't think I beat up on Dan. In fact I recently thanked him for acknowledging his error, regarding the use of excessive leverage with his spreads. I merely point to Dan as an example to others, who may also be using excessive leverage with their spreads, but don't realize it.
That's all for tonight. Read you all in the am.
<<< LRCX vola is very low, haven't looked at historical, but it's got to be in the bottom two deciles.
If a stock is trading where I want it technically, and the strike price is at or below tech support, and the strike I desire is available, and the bid / ask gap is reasonable, and the trade is paying in the teens of 13 - 19%, and the company is financially solid and healthy, and the strike price offered is reasonably valued, and the contract date I desire is offered,.... do you really expect me to risk missing the trade, because the vol is a bit lower than I'd like?
If I waited, perhaps I'd get a slightly higher credit, or perhaps a slightly deeper otm cushion. But perhaps the vol might also linger or drop instead.
If all the other criteria I look for are there, really doesn't seem to be worth the risk of waiting, and maybe missing the trade entirely.
I review a lot of stocks each day, looking for ones that meet my multiple criteria.
Once everything falls in place, I'm not waiting on the hope that maybe I can earn a 17% return instead 13%.
I miss plenty of trades each day because they only pay 10% vs my minimum desired of 13%.
Thus once the trade % pays in the "teens", and my other multiple criteria are met.... I'm not going to risk missing the trade, on the "hope" for a slightly higher % return, which may never materialize.
If a stock is trading where I want it technically, and the strike price is at or below tech support, and the strike I desire is available, and the bid / ask gap is reasonable, and the trade is paying in the teens of 13 - 19%, and the company is financially solid and healthy, and the strike price offered is reasonably valued, and the contract date I desire is offered,.... do you really expect me to risk missing the trade, because the vol is a bit lower than I'd like?
If I waited, perhaps I'd get a slightly higher credit, or perhaps a slightly deeper otm cushion. But perhaps the vol might also linger or drop instead.
If all the other criteria I look for are there, really doesn't seem to be worth the risk of waiting, and maybe missing the trade entirely.
I review a lot of stocks each day, looking for ones that meet my multiple criteria.
Once everything falls in place, I'm not waiting on the hope that maybe I can earn a 17% return instead 13%.
I miss plenty of trades each day because they only pay 10% vs my minimum desired of 13%.
Thus once the trade % pays in the "teens", and my other multiple criteria are met.... I'm not going to risk missing the trade, on the "hope" for a slightly higher % return, which may never materialize.