My official GOOG prediction

Quote from ES335:

Good thing that there's a steady supply of trend faders such as yourself to keep the hot trends alive, fwiw, next time you feel like imposing your opinion on one of the planet's hottest trends, just close your eyes, shout "NONONONONONONONO No!" 10 times and remember that opinions are like assholes, everybody's got one, and just because you have one doesn't mean you can monetize it.

I think Vonage should run a commercial of a trend fader fading GOOG for its next campaign of "people do stupid things"
Woo hoo, woo hoo hoo, woo hoo, woo hoo hoo, woo hoo, hoo hoo, woo hoo woo hoo hoo
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That's funny, I like those commercials.

Anyway, I still think this is a top for GOOG. I was early and I paid about 6k for the mistake but that's ok. I've been doing this long enough to not be bothered by making mistakes.

No, I'm not a trend fader and I'm not "imposing" anything. I'm taking a risky and uncomfortable trade that based from my experiences it is the uncomfortable trades that turn out to be the most profitable.

Look, GOOG hit 411. Given how many times I've been stopped out on EXACTLY the turning point, I wouldn't be surprised if this stretch is the start of the downfall.

Anyway, what's your point - that my beliefs are stupid? Grow up buddy...

Mike
 
Quote from Mike805:

That's funny, I like those commercials.

Anyway, I still think this is a top for GOOG. I was early and I paid about 6k for the mistake but that's ok. I've been doing this long enough to not be bothered by making mistakes.

No, I'm not a trend fader and I'm not "imposing" anything. I'm taking a risky and uncomfortable trade that based from my experiences it is the uncomfortable trades that turn out to be the most profitable.

Look, GOOG hit 411. Given how many times I've been stopped out on EXACTLY the turning point, I wouldn't be surprised if this stretch is the start of the downfall.

Anyway, what's your point - that my beliefs are stupid? Grow up buddy...

Mike
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The point is that shorting GOOG where you shorted it was a terrible odds trade because you are fading one of the strongest stocks in the world right now, although tempting risk reward if you have $370 as your price target. I don't care whether you are a trend fader or not, that is irrelevant to the argument. The argument is that shorting GOOG where it was a trend fade, period, you cannot get around that, unless you want to delude yourself, which is fine.

Hence the Vonage quote, if you dig deeper into that line, you will astutely realize that it is 'things' that are stupid, not necessarily people. People DO stupid things, but that doesn't necessarily mean that people doing stupid things are always and everywhere stupid. That is an illogical statement. The truth is that sometimes people are genuinely stupid when they do stupid things, other times they know better but go ahead and do stupid things anyway on emotional impulses. As for you, I really don't care to know whether you are stupid of not, it is irrelevant to my argument and none of my business. Yet, I will say this again, that trade was a dumb one.

So, you stuck your neck out and posted a call here on ET. That's great, good for you. But expect someone on this board to point out the truth about that trade if you have a modicum of intellectual honesty. The same goes for your bud Polpot above, whose emotional lashing out shows his weakness.

Again Mike, nothing personal, it was a dumb trade.
 
and if he had made money, he would be the smart one and you would have never posted. Wish you had posted to tell me I made a dumb move when I bought my puts while GOOG was at 425.

You insulting someone who made a trade
and lost money shows weakness, not me. Good luck, you're gonna need plenty of it with that attitude.
 
Quote from polpolik:

and if he had made money, he would be the smart one and you would have never posted. Wish you had posted to tell me I made a dumb move when I bought my puts while GOOG was at 425.

You insulting someone who made a trade
and lost money shows weakness, not me. Good luck, you're gonna need plenty of it with that attitude.
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Re your first comment, it's a hypothetical and hence not verifiable and worthless.

Second, I am not insulting Mike, just pointing out that that was a poor trade. Again, the Vonage quote is that people do stupid things. Note that I did not call Mike stupid. I don't know if Mike is stupid, and I don't care really, it's besides the point. If Mike or yourself does not have the balls to fess up and realize that it was a poor trade, that's ok, it will be his opportunity to learn from a loss that will be lost. Or he could learn from the trade and move on.

Everyone makes mistakes, I make mistakes all the time, and when people point out my mistakes, I listen and learn and I don't take it personally. For ex, I consented to a short on AAPL the day of its product release, that was a very stupid trade, for the same reasons I brought up regarding GOOG.

So relax, and let it go.
 
I'm not insulted by anyone's comments here - I just don't care about the perceived strength of GOOG at the moment.

The stock dropped 20pts on an analyst downgrade the day before yesterday. All day yesterday, the value area for the trading range was on the sell side - not the buy side. The spike into 396 was obviously an attempt at stop running looking back in hindsight.

I was anticipating longer term selling as I have seen this scenario many times before. I watched 25k blocks take the price down 1pt at a time all day - yet no follow through. The buying took over and I was wrong. The trade was risky and it didn't work but I do not think it was a dumb trade. I have seen many scenarios like this where a base is formed and huge gap down the next day.

ES, you talk about terrible odds against me in this situation. I say that is a very naive statement - no matter what - the odds are ALWAYS 50/50. You never know what is going to happen until it happens.

Mike

P.S. I trade GOOG most every day and have made equal amounts from the long and short side. I use price action alone, not fundamentals, to make my decisions.
 
Quote from Mike805:

I'm not insulted by anyone's comments here - I just don't care about the perceived strength of GOOG at the moment.

The stock dropped 20pts on an analyst downgrade the day before yesterday. All day yesterday, the value area for the trading range was on the sell side - not the buy side. The spike into 396 was obviously an attempt at stop running looking back in hindsight.

I was anticipating longer term selling as I have seen this scenario many times before. I watched 25k blocks take the price down 1pt at a time all day - yet no follow through. The buying took over and I was wrong. The trade was risky and it didn't work but I do not think it was a dumb trade. I have seen many scenarios like this where a base is formed and huge gap down the next day.

ES, you talk about terrible odds against me in this situation. I say that is a very naive statement - no matter what - the odds are ALWAYS 50/50. You never know what is going to happen until it happens.

Mike

P.S. I trade GOOG most every day and have made equal amounts from the long and short side. I use price action alone, not fundamentals, to make my decisions.
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I hear you. I can agree to disagree with your conclusion, but hey, that's what makes a market. Thanks for not taking my comments personally, they were not intended as such. I also disagree on the odds comment, a strategy with real live backtested and stress tested trades can offer some guidelines when it comes to defining your odds, as rough as they might be. If you have strict rules and test them, the outcome of 1000s of trades will likely take on a 50/50 profile, or 60/40, 40/60, or whatever hit rate. Yet, discussing odds without payoff and expectation is meaningless anyway. So I'll leave it at that.

I also like watching the tape/prints for momentum/size, but find Nasdaq stocks very difficult to anticipate on that basis alone.
 
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