My Noobie Journal

I've been consistently profitable all the past month.

Today:

Short 84.6 9:05
Cover 84.45 9:20

Long 84.8 10:10
Cover 85.93 13:30

So far, +1.28 today

Looking to go short soon -- just waiting on the entry signal. We're ranging around 86 and i think the resistance will hold, maybe for a move to around 85.6 or so. I can't really predict that, I have to look for what price does in the moment.. but if I had to predict right now, that's what I'd say just due to the way price is holding at these levels. Is that 'reading the tape'?

edit: It's also possible that we'll just break through 86 after ranging a bit.. this is why I don't try to predict. I just go with the flow and follow the trend. If this were to happen, I'd just go long.. anyway I'll post my next trade real-time. It's going to be long or short around 86 depending on how price is moving around

Re-edit: It looks we're breaking through? this bar at 14:05 just made a new daily high at 86.35. It happened too quickly for me to get in for a long.. My system says to get in NOW. However, it's part discretionary and that move was too much too quick for me to feel justified getting in. So, I'll stay neutral for now..
 
Wow.. My signals are saying that this will be a long move upwards. My discretionary judgement prevented me from getting in on this around 86.3 though -- may end up being a good idea.. We'll see whether this retraces downwards violently or continues the up-swing strongly
 
Quote from ZapCoffee:

Wow.. My signals are saying that this will be a long move upwards. My discretionary judgement prevented me from getting in on this around 86.3 though -- may end up being a good idea.. We'll see whether this retraces downwards violently or continues the up-swing strongly
More...

Aaaaand this is where discretionary tape reading is useful. A HUGE 86.46 to 85.86 drop there on the 14:25 bar. Thank god for my judgement, or I'd have lost some cash =) =)

Aaaaaand it's still dropping on the on the 14:30 bar.. 85.77 atm =O
 
And dumbass quants (I have a quant fin degree) say that price action is random =D =D

Even assuming a predictable drift... just no, even a sub-conscience can somewhat predict what's going on -

edit: What doesn't stand a chance is any sort of (artificial) gen intel. right now. Though I think it'd be sweet, if in the future, the first gen intelligences come through pure profit motives.. trading -- i think that's possible and likely, given what motivates advancements
 
Quote from ZapCoffee:

And dumbass quants (I have a quant fin degree) say that price action is random =D =D

Even assuming a predictable drift... just no, even a sub-conscience can somewhat predict what's going on -

edit: What doesn't stand a chance is any sort of (artificial) gen intel. right now. Though I think it'd be sweet, if in the future, the first gen intelligences come through pure profit motives.. trading -- i think that's possible and likely, given what motivates advancements
More...

And it's ranging with 82.6 as the absolute bottom support here
 
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