My (NEXT) EUR/USD Short Trade

Quote from Lon Eagle:

This thread is so amusing. Who cares about fundamentals if any contract wants to move it will move - what is the point of trying to trade counter trend. Look at LTCM - they were 'right' long term but it doesn't matter a bean if you are wiped out first. If you don't want to short it fine - sit out the market but wait until the trend turns before buying it. Averaging when fading a move is a guaranteed way to blow your entire account - it may take 1 week or 10 years but if you adopt that strategy it will happen.

Anyway on the fundamentals the Euro economy is dire and US corporates only have a small time frame to repatriate all foreign profits thanks to Bush's very generous tax amnesty. All the Euro has done is retrace some 13 figures of a 56 big figure move. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. We haven't had any capitulation move yet - if that does happen the stale long euros are going to be in real trouble.
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You spell "d-o-o-m-s-d-a-y" Lon. :D
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

That guy tried to tell me all about how the US was going to be a Banana Republic before long.
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You mean it's not? :confused:

*makes note to return his Thrifty Shopper discount pack of bandanas to Kmart.*
 
Quote from Lon Eagle:

In response to the two previous posts:

The first one - when i said the thread was amusing me I didn't mean every single post on it-apologies.

With respect to the second one I agree with what you say but was merely pointing out that there are perfectly legitimate fundamental and technical reasons why the dollar is rallying. I was merely pointing out factors that do support the dollar and can justify this move.
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LonEagle, what do you see as the "what ifs" developing this time that would significantly reverse the dollar rally against the euro?

*beads of sweat form while sKaLpZ stares at his euro longs*

Surely martians landing and blowing away half of North America would reverse it.
 
with oil prices climbing (source) doesn't Europe need a stronger euro to offset the higher oil prices?

and if they don't got it, let's say oil climbs to $60+, that would be... bad (for the EU) no?

this is great, King Fahd sneezes and crude goes UP a cent.

just how volatile is this world??
 
Here's the deal.

We seem to be in a definite euro-bear market sentiment.

Whether you wait for a higher price levels then simply short, or if you scale in (don't overexpose!) short, anywhere the euro climbs to, it is highly-subject to sliding back down on fears and uncertainties.

I've been in a few other euro-bear environments but, at least short term, this is the most well-defined one.

Breaking thru 1.2200 is a definitive measure.

I'd say, keep short and you'll do well - the euro has nowhere to go upwards-wise, not for very long anyway. :D

The Coin
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

with oil prices climbing (source) doesn't Europe need a stronger euro to offset the higher oil prices?

and if they don't got it, let's say oil climbs to $60+, that would be... bad (for the EU) no?

this is great, King Fahd sneezes and crude goes UP a cent.

just how volatile is this world??
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A very large percentage of European retail gasoline prices is government tax, so increases in crude oil prices have less of an effect at the pump then it would in the US.
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

Here's the deal.

We seem to be in a definite euro-bear market sentiment.

Whether you wait for a higher price levels then simply short, or if you scale in (don't overexpose!) short, anywhere the euro climbs to, it is highly-subject to sliding back down on fears and uncertainties.

I've been in a few other euro-bear environments but, at least short term, this is the most well-defined one.

Breaking thru 1.2200 is a definitive measure.

I'd say, keep short and you'll do well - the euro has nowhere to go upwards-wise, not for very long anyway. :D

The Coin
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agreed. covered half of my short EUR position out for a nice profit :D i'm aiming for 1.2000 - that's when i see some real support
 
I think the market's testing euro strength.

everytime it fails an upward momentum test or to hold a level, we get a 25 to 50-pip spike down.

I think we're gonna head down past 1.2200 again.

market: 1.2266.
 
Lol, it didn't hit my tp and instead plummetted back down below my long position.

Bollocks, I'm going to wait it out till next week now.

Wanted to claim at least 60 odd pips but hey ho.

Did you close and take profit?
 
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