My Nerves Are Shot

Quote from HowardCohodas:
I have stated my intent to teach what I do at some time in the future for compensation.
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Could you, in this case, answer my question about degeneracy in you method or explain how you get around it?
 
Quote from HowardCohodas:

This was your post before you edited it.


This is as it is now.
What scam? Although asked by several, I will not trade other people's money. I have taught what I know for the cost of room and refreshments. I received no money.

I have stated my intent to teach what I do at some time in the future for compensation.

What investment scam? Again your veracity is suspect.

I'll remind you of my challenge in my next post. Patience while I look it up.
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I elaborated a bit in my edit. Nothing contradictory there.

Your "teaching" will be predicated on scam performance stats.
 
Quote from HowardCohodas:

Well atticus, I could not find the version I specifically offered you. The search mechanism here failed me.

However, here is the latest version that I have offered others, who like you, challenge my veracity. So far no one has taken me up on it and most quite down and reread what I wrote.
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hahaha, yeah, I'll get right on it. GFY. Geez, I wonder why nobody has written a check? Again, you were wrong in your protestation that you offered me a wager.

I don't dispute the + returns posted on the spread requirement. I dispute the loss % on portfolio. You are calculating the losses on a fictional capital figure.

You won't reveal account size? That's the only number in question!
 
Quote from sle:

Could you, in this case, answer my question about degeneracy in you method or explain how you get around it?
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I missed it. I have to return to meetings, but will look it up when I am again free.
 
Since Howard said he was looking for it I assume he won’t mind me showing what I got:
“Here is the offer I made to atticus to prove his accusations, get me to pay for the cost of the proof if he is right and get a donation to his favorite charity in his name.

Select a third party auditor acceptable to both of us. Put in escrow the cost of auditing my account. I'll put twice as much in the account to cover the audit and the charitable donation. The auditor will not reveal the actual account numbers, but will verify what I have reported in the manner I have reported it.”
 
Quote from opt789:

Since Howard said he was looking for it I assume he won’t mind me showing what I got:
“Here is the offer I made to atticus to prove his accusations, get me to pay for the cost of the proof if he is right and get a donation to his favorite charity in his name.

Select a third party auditor acceptable to both of us. Put in escrow the cost of auditing my account. I'll put twice as much in the account to cover the audit and the charitable donation. The auditor will not reveal the actual account numbers, but will verify what I have reported in the manner I have reported it.”
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He never made that offer. He alludes to an offer made to someone else, and in his geriatric fugue goes on to chastise me for not accepting a wager that was never proposed. I would never take the wager as offered. Without the AUM figure the numbers are meaningless. I don't dispute the wins reported on reg-T spread requirement... I dispute the losses as % of portfolio.

Scam accounting and Alzhemier's in one manager. HTF can you go wrong?
 
Quote from sle:

Not true. Ratio of the premium to the spread is the risk-neutral skew-adjusted probabilty of the stock expiring beyond the lower strike. Obviously, that is going to vary depending on the vol and on the skew. The degenrate part comes from the interplay of the two components of your selection - in essense, you are using the same market-inplied probability of the asset ending below a given strike twice.
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I was out of town on business longer than expected. Still catching up.

I may have misstated my answer before. Are you suggesting that (premium/spread) is perfectly correlated with PoT?
 
So I feel like I should sit this week, and maybe more, out. I've been ridiculously lucky selling weekly S&P500 deep OTM bull put credit spreads since I started trading again in late December, with this past week being my best week ever. I haven't had a losing position since March.

With the runup this past week...well all I'm saying is that I'm not going to confuse luck for skill, and there's no way my luck can continue to be this good.

I'm up 32.8% since I started trading again...what was that Kenny Rodgers song..."You've got to know when to hold em, and know when to fold em?"

I admit I'm gambling, and think it's time to fold em for a bit...
 
very nice trading Arnie...I know you sat thru a rough spell but have come out of it nicely and yes probably should take a breather until the overheated mkt comes back down...very happy for you!
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

very nice trading Arnie...I know you sat thru a rough spell but have come out of it nicely and yes probably should take a breather until the overheated mkt comes back down...very happy for you!
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Thanks, I'd rather be lucky than good any day of the week.

You know, I look back at the S&P 500 chart and shudder to think if I'd had used the same strategy in 2008 :eek: , obviously I wouldn't have lasted long and would have "had my hat handed to me", as the saying goes.

Again, I know it's luck....How do I know? I was tempted to buy some long puts in the middle of last week, something I've never done. Glad I didn't do that!

I agree about taking a break, I really have zero confidence in market direction right now. Some people say that the end of the quarter combined with the holiday weekend was a sure bet for an up market...I don't know, I thought the ending of QE2 was going to be a big negative...

I'll just be watching on Tuesday, trying to keep my finger off of the "submit order" button...:D

Happy 4th, kid. :)
 
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