My most recent winner

Quote from Phantom Trader:

Metaphor: Profitability is the meat and cheese of my hugeness

Simile: I am as huge (and as hairy) as a woolly mammoth
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Ignore him Mr Market. Who does he think he is to tell a Wharton boy wot gud inglish is? He probabli aint even amurrican

Metaphor : Boredom is the smell of Phantom's posts

Btw Mr Market, have you got any more brilliant picks for us that will lose 85% of their value the day after?

I have some money I *really* need to get rid of...
 
Quote from Phantom Trader:

Metaphor: Boredom is the meat and cheese of Wappers2's posts

Simile: Wappers2's boredom is as huge as quickTRADER's.
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hehe!

keep em coming, Cheesebeast!
 
You never did quite respond about you pick....You admit that you are more of an investor then a daily trader...If you are looking at a 4-6 week time period and are 'almost always right' why would you not by a call on LCi with say an expiration date in the june/july time frame? It would probably cost a grand or two but compared to the risk of 20,000 it seems like the better play....lately Im thinking more in terms of calls for anything that would be held overnight....this way, if it craps out and pulls a WCOM on me, im out a contract, not a huge chunk of change...also, I'm not married to it either with the position....what do you do if it drops from 20.00 to say 14.00? it would already be out 6k , possibly have a maintenance call and be in the postilion of: do i send good money after bad? I would say that anyone who looks at stocks in terms of a six to 12 week hold should seriously consider buying a call or even selling a put too.
 
Quote from TM_Direct:

... why would you not by a call on LCi with say an expiration date in the june/july time frame? It would probably cost a grand or two but compared to the risk of 20,000 it seems like the better play ...
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Well, I'm not Ernie, but I'll try something. For the risk to come out at 20,000, the stock has to go to zero. Now if LCI remains flat, the two grand for the options are down the drain. MrMarket lost $0. For the risk to come out at 2,000, the stock has to drop 10%. That is very well possible. But with the stock in his pockets, fundamentals unchanged, MrMarket has all the time in the world to wait until the stock resumes its rise.

Options expire. Nice stocks tend to stay nice for a while.

Regards,

Karel
 
Well, I'm not Ernie, but I'll try something. For the risk to come out at 20,000, the stock has to go to zero. Now if LCI remains flat, the two grand for the options are down the drain. MrMarket lost $0. For the risk to come out at 2,000, the stock has to drop 10%. That is very well possible. But with the stock in his pockets, fundamentals unchanged, MrMarket has all the time in the world to wait until the stock resumes its rise.

Options expire. Nice stocks tend to stay nice for a while.
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I understand that point, but Mr. Market said he is "almost always right"...so if he definitely feels it's going up in 6 weeks like he said, the option gives him all the reward without as much risk...I mean, to risk 2k or so is nothing versus 20,000....also, there is the tie up of capital....why tie up 20k in one basket? under the call scenario he could buy multiple positions and as far as time, how many people over the last 3 years held onto CSCO, SUNW, WCOM, YHOO, ORCL, CIEN, ect....because " i have time on my side, im not ready to retire for another 20 years"??? Now they are out almost their entire investment with the hope that 5 years from now they may get a bounce???? And also, as we learned form the graveyard of the past NICE STOCKS DO NOT STAY AROUND FOR A WHILE.....Just my opinion though.
 
Quote from TM_Direct:

... but Mr. Market said he is "almost always right"...so if he definitely feels it's going up in 6 weeks like he said, the option gives him all the reward without as much risk...
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Yes, but his "almost always right" isn't over that 6 week period. I am keeping track of the 6 week results of MrMarket's picks from februari 2002 onward, from the perspective of someone too lazy to do his own homework, so I grab up a pick after MrMarket has published it (= at the close of the next day). Target is MrMarket's 15%, not that of the paper port, but a pick is never held longer than 6 weeks. The 16 closed trades show 7 winners and 9 losers, at an average of -2%. (Under this regime, MrMarket himself probably would have done a bit better, because he would be buying lower on average.) But one of the losers has turned into a winner in the meantime, and another oldie looks to be on its way up again.

Regards,

Karel
 
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