My Metastock strategy

Quote from baggerlord:

It netted about 4% a month on average over the last 7 years. Basically all the system does is identify stocks that have dropped sharply while in an uptrend/risen sharply while in a downtrend. Position is taken and held for 3%, or sold if target isn't reached within 20 days. It works but it isn't nearly as fun or profitable as finding my good ol' triangles so I doubt I will ever use it.
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Something is wrong. I went back and read your first post in this thread. If what you state there is true, you'd be crazy NOT to trade this system. But, no offense, I do not believe the system results can be accurate.

If you are tossing the system and not worried about it, post the parameters here, or pm them to me. I'd be glad to do truthing in TFP.

g
 
I'm not using it because with my account size 4% a month is not going to get me too far. It requires too many trades for me to use at this point in time. Like was said earlier, it is very much like being the lottery, and I am not in a position to be the lottery. Doubt all you want, but it uses no stock-to-stock optimization, and uses a 1 day delay. I'm not going to give the exact parameters because at one point I hope to use it, but it isn't too hard to develope a system that buys the dips in an up or down trend.
 
Hi

I am new here but had been writing and testing system for the last 5 years. I am a pretty good backtester but never a good trader because I had serious discipline problem which I am trying very hard to overcome now.

Anyway looking at your post I had a few question. Not asking for your secret formula or parameter (I don't have to or need to as I never had the discipline to follow)

When your system is in a entry, you do 2 things

1) exit at 3% profit (congragulation you had a winners)
2) Exit at 20 days (maybe a winners or maybe a losers)

Do you have a stop loss in place??
If you do not what happen if you bought worldcom or enron 10 days before they collapse??
What happen if you bought a stock at $20 and after 20 days it is at $2?

Your system might be 95% win but the 5% will kill all your profit.

I might be wrong anyway just my 2 cents worth on this.



Quote from Baggerlord

06-04-03 05:27 AM

It netted about 4% a month on average over the last 7 years. Basically all the system does is identify stocks that have dropped sharply while in an uptrend/risen sharply while in a downtrend. Position is taken and held for 3%, or sold if target isn't reached within 20 days. It works but it isn't nearly as fun or profitable as finding my good ol' triangles so I doubt I will ever use it.
 
Quote from baggerlord:

It netted about 4% a month on average over the last 7 years. Basically all the system does is identify stocks that have dropped sharply while in an uptrend/risen sharply while in a downtrend. Position is taken and held for 3%, or sold if target isn't reached within 20 days. It works but it isn't nearly as fun or profitable as finding my good ol' triangles so I doubt I will ever use it.
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What king of stop do you use?
 
20% that is really a lot to me. What is your system maxdrawdown??

if your profit is 3% and losses is 20% almosts any kind of such system will give a pretty good percentage in term of winning trades.

Simple question
A stock trading at $100. What is the chance that it hit $103 and what is the chance that it hit $80. Of course the chance that it hit $103 will be higher than the chance of it hitting $80. So naturally your percentage of winning will be high in this case.

But on the other hand if you hit a lossing trade of $20 you would need 7 winners to make back your loss.


just some thoughts


baggerlord

06-08-03 07:05 PM

20% or twenty days. 20% sounds like a lot but with the volume the system does it comes out ahead.
 
That is correct. The system has a 90%+ success rate over thousands of trades, so it does make money after the losers and slippage, about 4% a month. Very much like the lottery...
 
great good luck to you. You have found yourself a great system now all you need is to follow and trade it.

But for me psychologically this system need more fine tuning. I cannot trade a system that the stop loss is many times higher than the profit objective.

Personally I find it hard to overcome
Example
If I loss 1 trade I am down $2000
My next 7 trade is just to breakeven my loss, alone the way if I suffer another $2000 loss I would neeed 14 trade to breakeven.

Or on the otherhand I had a $2000 profit (7 trade) just 1 bad trade and all my profit is gone.

But of course if you have tested and are confidence of your system yes by all means trade it use it and profit from it.

Good Luck



baggerlord

06-09-03 12:18 PM

That is correct. The system has a 90%+ success rate over thousands of trades, so it does make money after the losers and slippage, about 4% a month. Very much like the lottery...
 
Quote from baggerlord:

I'm not using it because with my account size 4% a month is not going to get me too far. It requires too many trades for me to use at this point in time. Like was said earlier, it is very much like being the lottery, and I am not in a position to be the lottery. Doubt all you want, but it uses no stock-to-stock optimization, and uses a 1 day delay. I'm not going to give the exact parameters because at one point I hope to use it, but it isn't too hard to develope a system that buys the dips in an up or down trend.
More...

I've spent a lot of time on pullback buying systems and so I feel sure you have a mistake somewhere in your code. It's not that easy to design one that works consistently across bull/bear markets and surely not with the results you mention.

g
 
"I've spent a lot of time on pullback buying systems and so I feel sure you have a mistake somewhere in your code. It's not that easy to design one that works consistently across bull/bear markets and surely not with the results you mention.

g"

You seen the dipbuyer WFO script on wealth lab?
 
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