My Merger Arbitrage Journal

mergerpie said:
if it fails, i see a sub-$100-$110... definitely not $90s anymore..that was 2016's valuation
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i remember when Qualcomm got hit with Apple lawsuit soon after the merger announcement and NXPI dropped from sub $100 to $90s... i grabbed a few shares back then although the merger was far from being completed... i sold soon after it climbed back to $100s.. the potential China issue was already in my mind back then and i didn't get in to enjoy the ride to $120s..

I was not convinced when NXPI went past $110 (i thought Qualcomm would not up its offer)... i wasn't convinced when it went past $120 (Broadcom and China issues)... now nearing $113 and with the merger potentially near resolution within 2 months... i started a position again.
 
I’m in full on nxpi now because I think the downside is limited. However news came out that China asking for a lot of concessions and their review might be delayed 6 months.
 
newwurldmn said:
I’m in full on nxpi now because I think the downside is limited. However news came out that China asking for a lot of concessions and their review might be delayed 6 months.
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Skew says otherwise though... about even money... July 95 puts @2.60-ish and 120 calls the same. Oct 95 vs 120 is 4.50/4.00 (p/c)

I guess we just dropped 5%... but the market isn't very convinced IMO.
 
i had added 100 shares more at $108.50... total holdings 200 shares... yesterday was a busy day where i spent majority of my time readjusting my portfolio due to the new IB rule that slaps 30% margins on CFDs for concentrated positions..
 
JackRab said:
Skew says otherwise though... about even money... July 95 puts @2.60-ish and 120 calls the same. Oct 95 vs 120 is 4.50/4.00 (p/c)

I guess we just dropped 5%... but the market isn't very convinced IMO.
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Yeah. Straddle is pricing 20 dollar move but I think vol is overbid. That’s my view.
 
Well that 20 dollars is on the money IMO. Since if it goes ahead, we're close to 127.50 since that's the bid. If it fails, I think we'd be down below 90...

They're pricing in a decent chance of failure. I would say 50/50... That drop today didn't help. May 75 puts are 0.15@0.20, not for any size though...

Interesting case though. You can learn a lot from this one.... Ever since mid Feb (Feb 20th) the vols have been rising. They collapsed after the raise in the bid, but since then gradually up and the stock down.
 
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Added new positions:

1. AVXS +150 shares, Avg px: $210.04
2. BGC +1050 shares, Avg px: $29.75
3. MSCC +500 shares, Avg px: $$64.42
4. VR +460 shares, Avg px: $67.65
5. WGL +360 shares, Avg px: $85.46

MON continues to be biggest position. Continues to hold TWX. Added NXPI +150 shares avg $208+, 3 AKRX $20 Jun calls expected to be worth little now..
 
Some updates before I post my performance updates for this half of the year later in the week...

1. Closed BGC at slight loss after a scare
2. Closed MSCC after major regulatory approvals gotten..
3. Closed VR. Breakeven trade.
4. MON anticipated to close. Major trade of the year and major source of my profits.
5. TWX judge decision time this month.
6. NXPI increased holdings in anticipation of a resolution with China by July.
 
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