One of Anek's followers? I've heard they can predict market direction successfully. It's also my understanding that they don't actually trade the way that Anek talked about in his big thread here. In other words, they don't jump into trends with any of that HH/HL crap, but instead call market reversals like clockwork.
My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
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One of Anek's followers? I've heard they can predict market direction successfully. It's also my understanding that they don't actually trade the way that Anek talked about in his big thread here. In other words, they don't jump into trends with any of that HH/HL crap, but instead call market reversals like clockwork.
Forget fibonaccis. Garbage.
Ask yourself this question: WHILE that fear-based selloff is occurring, do you think it looks the same internally the whole way? Or will volume, ratio of transactions on bid to transactions on ask, MM willingness to let price run, density of stops encountered, size and duration of retracements etc. change as the move progresses?
If they change, and the 'life cycle' of a fear-based selloff is the same from one to the next, then wouldn't that tell you, as it was occurring, something about when the selloff would end?
Take a look at range bars & see what you think.
I agree that fib stuff is crap but it's a pity that you banned all indicators because I seriously think even a simple MA crossover system would have produced better results than your both-long-and-short system.
Anyway, I just want to put out there the idea that random and unpredictable are not synonyms. Not everything unpredictable is random. For example, the next digit of pi after the current last one calculated is unpredictable, but given sufficient resources and time, it also can be calculated. Truly random events can't be calculated.
Prices are sometimes unpredictable (the 'chop') but they are at other times pretty predictable, at least directionally (the trend).
Constant range bars? They eliminate chop in theory (if price is sitting there going horizontally, they don't print, which is nice) but the downside is that sometimes you get multiple bars printing at once which has its own negatives and trading difficulties.
What are those dots above and below your bars all about.
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
To me, it's random. Every "rule" I've seen is wrong enough of the time that there's no edge, for me.
I've spent a ridiculous amount of time testing stuff, writing indicators, going through all the motions. For the last year I haven't used indicators at all, but even so, all the PA and trendlines and S becoming R and whatever else, it's awesome when it works... which is about half the time.
True power for me came from acknowledging the fact that price is random (with a slight upside bias over time).
Then again, that may not be true for Forex. I don't know anything about currencies to be honest, I just used Forex as the vehicle for this test because I could be long/short at the same time and use super small position sizes. I couldn't do this same thing with the ES, for example.
But overall, relax you guys. This was a fun thread designed to spark some conversation based on some actual forward-testing that I've been doing. I figured it was a good change from the usual threads of "I'M CALLING THE TOP RIGHT HERE YOU GUIZE LOL SHORTS ARE IN LOAD UP THE BOAT LOLOLOL" or "um hay people what is the best setting for MACD i want to make money" or "sup, I totally don't work for these people, but even tho I registered today and this is my first post, you should definitely check out this website. These guys get calls right like 99% of the time and I've been making a ton of money with them!!! [insert affiliate link]."
1. Three of your pairs are not viable, eliminate them.
2. You need to have a dual strategy, one for mean reversion, and one for trending, develop it.
3. You risk management profile will make a net winner or loser, nothing else. Why do you not see threads about traders specific risk management profiles??
Because that is where the edge is
you take entries with small stops and let them get to even smaller stops soon afterwards or move your stop to breakeven. You try to let your winners run. A lot of them won't work (the majority) but that's not too bad cause these losers will be small. You put the odds in your favour by having a positive expected value as one winner might make up for five losers. My win rate might be below 50% but it's not below 20%