one more thing: don't expect people to give away the house for free on what they have been working on for years to perfect it, you'll have to fill in the details for yourself. The good thing: there is a lot of info on the net; the bad thing: you'll have to wade through a lot of mud to find it and make it your own. I personally like a lot what NoDoji has written here in the past, I don't trade the same way exactly, but in general broad strokes we do things a lot in common.
My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
- Start date
To me, it's random. Every "rule" I've seen is wrong enough of the time that there's no edge, for me.
I've spent a ridiculous amount of time testing stuff, writing indicators, going through all the motions. For the last year I haven't used indicators at all, but even so, all the PA and trendlines and S becoming R and whatever else, it's awesome when it works... which is about half the time.
True power for me came from acknowledging the fact that price is random (with a slight upside bias over time).
Then again, that may not be true for Forex. I don't know anything about currencies to be honest, I just used Forex as the vehicle for this test because I could be long/short at the same time and use super small position sizes. I couldn't do this same thing with the ES, for example.
But overall, relax you guys. This was a fun thread designed to spark some conversation based on some actual forward-testing that I've been doing. I figured it was a good change from the usual threads of "I'M CALLING THE TOP RIGHT HERE YOU GUIZE LOL SHORTS ARE IN LOAD UP THE BOAT LOLOLOL" or "um hay people what is the best setting for MACD i want to make money" or "sup, I totally don't work for these people, but even tho I registered today and this is my first post, you should definitely check out this website. These guys get calls right like 99% of the time and I've been making a ton of money with them!!! [insert affiliate link]."
Quote from cvds16:
repeat ten times after me: PRICES ARE NOT RANDOM
EXACTOMUNDO !!!!!
Quote from cvds16:
repeat ten times after me: PRICES ARE NOT RANDOM
I cannot predict direction.
If I could, I would load up with massive positions in the direction that price was going to go. There would be no need for stops, or scaling in, or money management.
Price may not be random, but when I try to predict direction I'm right about 50% of the time, so it might as well be random to me.
If you believe price is random, this system will not work - it tries to predict price. The prediction it makes is as follows:
When price has moved 50 pips one direction, it is more likely to move that direction than the opposite in the near future.
In other words, in order to believe in trends you have to believe that price can be predicted. So if you really believe price can't be predicted in that manner, you have to give up and go home. Game over. However, I would say the problem is not that price can't be predicted with some level of accuracy - it can. The problem is that this system can't do it because it's poorly executed.