My long term diary.

C

cvds16

Let me introduce myself. While I have been in the financial markets for over 30 years only things recently started to click as a daytrader. This journal isn't going to be about that however. For the record: I daytrade the Dax.
I have also been a floortrader in Amsterdam in the early nineties (my god I had no clue whatsoever what I was doing, but how's that I started). I wanted to become an option market maker but didn't have the capital for that. I later worked for a company that became a subsidiary of KBC Securities as an options broker and alternate options market maker. I was also a broker in stocks on an independant basis which provided me with a good income on it's own. I later became head market maker in USD/BEF. Since independant brokers couldn't work anymore for KBC Securities I become broker at another firm for over a year but that didn't work out since it was a the start of the decline of the Nasdaq.
In the early 2000 I stopped trading futures since I still didn't know what I was really doing and arbed the hell out of DIA options. That was really profitable for the next years. The most I lost was 50 USD a day and that happened like 2 days a month. On average I was making 1000 USD a day. This lasted for several years untill cancellation costs raised it head at IB making me not profitable anymore overnight. I had an theoretical edge of about 2 cents per option according to my spreadsheet I had made myself in Visual Basic for Excel. I once again tried futures but that didn't work out again.
Then I got struck with poor health and had to do some administrative job. My health still isn't fine but I am back with a vengeance. I am with Tickmill now which has really good spreads in CFD's (not like Oanda). It still took me over a year to get my daytrading together and I am still trading small size taking small profits. For example I am nog long overnight the spread in which I am long Dax and short SP500.
While this is probably interesting to a lot of people I am going to talk about my long term interest. You probably should do things as an investment only a few times in a decade. At this moment I am activerly doing some things. Let me expand on that in my following post.
 
While I do have some interest in individual stocks I tend to get too emotional with them and tend to not see the trees through the forest anym)ore. While it can be done it's just nothing for me: I only invest long term in ETF's and undervalued holdings preferably both after a serious correction (= meaning 20%).
At this moment I really love the Dax ETF (it's valued at a forward PE of about 12.5, has come down 22% of the high and the chart looks like a double bottom). I have a KISS strategie for when to sell this: at the old time highs. That should provide me with a return of over 22%)
What I also bought on friday is Jardine Strategic (a holding company from Singapore that is comprised of several big quoted stocks; it's asset are valued at a discount of over 40%; you can buy in the USA (not too liquid) or in Singapore itself where there is lots of volume). The weekly chart looks good sinde a few weeks. Once again I am going to be selling at the old high. That should give me 27%.
As last I am interested in the Hong Kong ETF (you can buy that in the USA). The monthly chart looks like it has formed a bottom and it's quoted at the cheap end of the fundamental range with a forward PE of less than 10. I am going to buy this EWH when the inside bar of this month is broken, so somewhere early december I reckon). I am thinking of selling this when this get's over 40% higer.
This is al very simple stuff but it works with a minimal of fundamentals and just a little technicals. Remember financial markets are all about figures and how supply and demand moves as is reflected in price. In other words charts.
 
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Markets I positively hate (In other words bearmarkets) and where the patient and not too leveraged will make money on the short side. Just look at the monthly charts.
- GOLD: technically it will slide in the long term towards 1035 USD where I might beome a buyer. Be very patient with this one: it's an extremely slow mover.
- SILVER: this will go slightly faster but I don't see any long term support before 8.50 on the monthly. This one will go slightly faster.
- Bitcoin: this one is going to 1250 USD on the monthly charts and even then I have my doubts it will be a good buy then ... The hype seems to get in the final stages so this one might fall quicker ....
Good luck with this Journal. I'll update this like once every 14 days unless something interesting comes along.
On a sidenote:: I technically quite like Facebook as a buy here to sell at the old time highs. But then I don't do individual stocks so I will pass on this one.
 
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One final remark: if you think technical analysis doesn't work it means you haven't put in the right kind of effort in and time. It took me 14 years of immense effort to get this and I have an IQ of slightly over 130 ... I like to think that I am fast in most things. Well seems not in everything ...
Anyone telling that daytrading is easy to find out is lying. I met quite a few year wonders over the years. The most amazing one was a futurestrader trading for his own account on the floor in Amsterdam that made 250 million euro's trading index futures only to give it all back and then some four years later when the markets became electronic.
 
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One more position I am going to add to my long term arsenal is a short in sliver. One of the nicest things about this is that the market pays you in intrest to hold this position. My target there is 8.46 USD. Who cares if it takes a few years ? I get paid to hold on to this.
Here I don't have a nice entry point but the fact that we didn't find support at the last lows tells me everything this should be a nice short and that the next support is way lower.
I'd love to short Bitcoin too giving the big potential but my broker is very expensive on that one and I need it to daytrade my still small account. Things should be different in a year from now.
 
Curious to see where the markets will open. Yes the overnight market in Dax CFD's opens at the same time as s&p500. I am long the former and short the latter. The Brexit agreement could form a surprise in both.
 
very risky extremely cyclic sector of seatransportatino is getting heavy buy recomendations the last days in Europe. Nothing the big money didn't allready knew on wednesday last week ... as you could see in the Dax.
 
cvds16 said:
The most amazing one was a futurestrader trading for his own account on the floor in Amsterdam that made 250 million euro's trading index futures only to give it all back and then some.
More...
Slight mistake in converting to euro's: this should read 25 million euro's.
 
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