My (long-awaited) Predictions for 2014

H

hayman

My predictions for 2014 (I have consistently been accurate since 1992):

- 2014: U.S. Equity Markets down 5%, after being down as much as 12% (major correction in 2015 coming).

- 2014: Gold up 15-20%.

- 2014: Interest Rates will touch 3.8 %, and settle above 3.5% (10 yr).

- 2014: GDP will average 2.7% for the year.

- 2014: Inflation (CPI) will start rearing its ugly head, and Yellen and FED doves will be in a panic. Economists will start using a new, improved measure of inflation, which shows that we already live in inflationary times.

- 2014: Republicans will lose seats in House, but retain majority.
Dems will lose seats in Senate, but retain majority.

- 2014: Major revolt in this country over government elimination of incandescent light bulbs.

- 2014: Obamacare shortfall on young people subsidizing will add to the national debt, and will be a major mid-term election issue.
 
Quote from hayman:


- 2014: U.S. Equity Markets down 5%, after being down as much as 12% (major correction in 2015 coming).

- 2014: Gold up 15-20%.

- 2014: Interest Rates will touch 3.8 %, and settle above 3.5% (10 yr).

- 2014: GDP will average 2.7% for the year.

- 2014: Inflation (CPI) will start rearing its ugly head, and Yellen and FED doves will be in a panic. Economists will start using a new, improved measure of inflation, which shows that we already live in inflationary times.

- 2014: Republicans will lose seats in House, but retain majority.
Dems will lose seats in Senate, but retain majority.

- 2014: Major revolt in this country over government elimination of incandescent light bulbs.

- 2014: Obamacare shortfall on young people subsidizing will add to the national debt, and will be a major mid-term election issue.
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Major revolt over light bulbs, pplleeaasssee

I predict a stock market fall by 50% at least
Real Estate fall by 40% at least

Major revolt against the government and not due to light bulbs but due to people being swindled out of their pensions.
Lets see who is right. Good luck to all, NO CHEATING, no one is allowed to purposefully cause free fall in prices just to be correct on ET :D
 
Quote from HarbingerQ:

Major revolt over light bulbs, pplleeaasssee

I predict a stock market fall by 50% at least
Real Estate fall by 40% at least

Major revolt against the government and not due to light bulbs but due to people being swindled out of their pensions.
Lets see who is right. Good luck to all, NO CHEATING, no one is allowed to purposefully cause free fall in prices just to be correct on ET :D
More...

OK, light bulbs was a joke....at least, I know you read my entire post! I think we will see an equity correction circa 40% by end of 2015, but that is getting ahead of my post.

What most people are forgetting is that retail guys don't count, and Wall Street doesn't even count. HFT's account for 50%+ of all daily trading, so when the algorithms go SELL, there will be an avalanche the speed of which 2008 hadn't even seen.

Pensions is a totally different topic. I feel for those losing them, but shame on the politicians who promised these deals for votes, without doing their actuarial homework. And to be honest, I am sick and tired of paying for Pensions and Healthcare, when I have to pay my own way for both of these; hence, double tax.
 
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