lobster, there are opportunities right now. right now it's still possible to be pulling in BIG bucks day trading. i don't happen to think it's particularly probable, but a way could be found to do it, no doubt about that at all.
but i really doubt whether the ones doing it are people that just came into the game in the last year. i think it's much more likely taht people that can finds ways to exploit these market conditions will be people that have had a good few years under their belts. and that, i think, is a different situation to what you had back in the boom days, where a newer trader had a far better chance of being able to 'get it' rather soon.
so, sorry to sound kind of extreme in my views, but it's something i'd been mulling over the past month or two. i was already well aware of what i consider daytrading's negative aspects, but i feel like i'd been being kind of deluding myself by extrapolating my current performance into the future and thinking day trading's the way to go. obviously i no longer feel that way.
we certainly COULD have another daytrading boom. in fact, i'm almost certain we will. but i wouldn't expect it happen in the next year or two (or three). and i'm utterly convinced the dow will, someday, go over 11,000 again, but again, i don't see it happening in the next year or three. (and, hmm, yeah, i would consider someone that thinks 11k is more likely than 5k in the next year or so to be just a bit of an idiot
)
so, what you've said COULD occur, but in the meantime, you need to live. can you (not YOU, personally) really afford to sit around waiting for the good times to come back? (there's no guarantee they will). i find it doubtful.
on the other hand, with paid employment, and a multiday strategy in the works, you can easily wait for opportunities to come your way, rather than 'forcing' them, as we daytraders often find ourselves doing. (and then going off and lamenting about the market as the source of our frustrations)
ps - as for a 'double bubble', i suppose anything is possible, but given that we've seen one before, i'd say it's unlikely. (maybe the 98-00 peak-trough-peak could pass as that?)
but i really doubt whether the ones doing it are people that just came into the game in the last year. i think it's much more likely taht people that can finds ways to exploit these market conditions will be people that have had a good few years under their belts. and that, i think, is a different situation to what you had back in the boom days, where a newer trader had a far better chance of being able to 'get it' rather soon.
so, sorry to sound kind of extreme in my views, but it's something i'd been mulling over the past month or two. i was already well aware of what i consider daytrading's negative aspects, but i feel like i'd been being kind of deluding myself by extrapolating my current performance into the future and thinking day trading's the way to go. obviously i no longer feel that way.
we certainly COULD have another daytrading boom. in fact, i'm almost certain we will. but i wouldn't expect it happen in the next year or two (or three). and i'm utterly convinced the dow will, someday, go over 11,000 again, but again, i don't see it happening in the next year or three. (and, hmm, yeah, i would consider someone that thinks 11k is more likely than 5k in the next year or so to be just a bit of an idiot
)so, what you've said COULD occur, but in the meantime, you need to live. can you (not YOU, personally) really afford to sit around waiting for the good times to come back? (there's no guarantee they will). i find it doubtful.
on the other hand, with paid employment, and a multiday strategy in the works, you can easily wait for opportunities to come your way, rather than 'forcing' them, as we daytraders often find ourselves doing. (and then going off and lamenting about the market as the source of our frustrations)
ps - as for a 'double bubble', i suppose anything is possible, but given that we've seen one before, i'd say it's unlikely. (maybe the 98-00 peak-trough-peak could pass as that?)
But, if you manage your losses, the profits have a way of taking care of themselves. Once I learned that, it took about two years for me to make a middle-income trading, and another two before it was comfortable and felt reliable. That was after 15 years and 4 or 5 blown accounts previously. I now trade for a living, I'm an exchange member (CBOT) and my experience is pretty typical of the folks I know. Trade small, and give yourself time!