My last $150

EPrado said:
Which one is Atticus. Is he the same as Drownpruf? What ever happened to him ?
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Atticus became Drownpruf. Drownpruf became Convexx. Convexx got banned for getting into a cyberfeud with one of the p&r trolls.
 
EPrado said:
Don't thank me. You won the bet fair and square. Cool of you to let me choose the place. All good.

Years ago I traded for a fund manager who did all those studies/correlations. We tested the hell out of every combination. Dow up/down 3,4,5,6 etc days, what did that mean for other markets. Tested vs metals, currencies, energies, interest rates. Tested what it meant for the Dow after numerous days in a row going one way. What did it mean the following week.....month.....3 months. We had a lot of success with it. I think one of the big differences was how we handled the risk. I was/am a big fan of having a hard stop in the market, knowing your "out". Also having some kind of game plan when to take profit, or at least take something off of the table. He wasn't. He believed in letting the trade play out no matter what. If the test said that if Copper was up 8% this week it meant that the Yen would be down 6% the following week then under no circumstances was the position to be closed before the end of the following week. To me was a crazy way to think. With his thinking sure, you can hit the occasional home run. But can also take a tremendous hit.

We had a big position on the night of the London bus bombing. Were short SP's and long Bunds going into that night. I was in charge of managing that trade. Because I had profit targets out there (based on the risk we were taking and some technical levels) we had a monster winning trade and took a big profit during the SP crash/Bund rally. I was questioned on "why would I take profits" about 5 minutes after I covered the position. I argued that at some point you have to take profit. Funny how 2 hours later when the Sp's bounced 30 handles and The Bunds sold off 150 ticks I was told "great job".

Man I am blabbing. Anyways....while I give you shit on here about trading at times, I do agree with your beliefs in testing. It does work. But that's only part of a successful trade. Without a solid risk management plan/plan to take profits it really means nothing. The plan also has to make sense. I think it's great that you are saying short the dow here at 18000, but to say your cover is at 15000 ? With the vix at 12 your target is really .....how do I put this nicely......insane. It's going to take 10 years for your target to be hit. If ever.
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We come from similar background. I worked with Larry Connors when we were doing all the testing that led to "the machine".

Then Niederhoffer pushes the testing thing.

I agree with you mostly-- but the djia will be at 15k sooner than u think!

surf
 
There is absolutely nothing wrong trading microlots in FX. If you are consistently profitable for three months, up your size according to your new account size.

So say you have $100. Trade .01. Yes, that is zero point zero one lots. Say you grow your account to $150 after three months. Trade .02. So every $50 to $100 you make, increase your size by .01. If on the other hand you blow out your account, you are not allowed to trade for another six months, not even with the greatest system in the Universe. That will keep you from going broke, since losing $100 a week/month means you have nothing but a coin toss at best. It is like those people that go to Jewel/Osco and buy lottery tickets.

This is a great way to learn cheaply until you actually have something. And if you don't have anything, unless you are a lunatic, eventually wisdom will set in that the approach you are taking is not working, and hopefully the pain to learn the lesson will have been inexpensive.

90 out of 100 retail traders lose. On the other hand, persistence can pay off as long as it doesn't cost you too much to get there, monetarily, psychologically, the list goes on of the injuries that losing and dedication to this pursuit can have on your life...

 
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kut2k2 said:
Atticus became Drownpruf. Drownpruf became Convexx. Convexx got banned for getting into a cyberfeud with one of the p&r trolls.
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Too bad. He was a pretty funny dude. His options threads though seemed to be very popular. Certainly seemed to know his stuff.
 
marketsurfer said:
We come from similar background. I worked with Larry Connors when we were doing all the testing that led to "the machine".

Then Niederhoffer pushes the testing thing.

I agree with you mostly-- but the djia will be at 15k sooner than u think!

surf
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I worked for the guy about 10 years ago. About halfway through my trading career. Was a very good learning experience....in many ways. And he was a big fan of VN's work, but he was turned off by the whole ego thing (especially in VN's book).

Hey...I hope you are right from a trading standpoint. If the dow hit 15,000 soon the vix would go up to very high levels and make for great trading in the indexes. I just don't see it. Maybe if the Fed starts raising rates a bit more aggressively than most think it will get things going.
 
nitro said:
There is absolutely nothing wrong trading microlots in FX. If you are consistently profitable for three months, up your size according to your new account size.

So say you have $100. Trade .01. Yes, that is zero point zero one lots. Say you grow your account to $150 after three months. Trade .02. So every $50 to $100 you make, increase your size by .01. If on the other hand you blow out your account, you are not allowed to trade for another six months, not even with the greatest system in the Universe. That will keep you from going broke, since losing $100 a week/month means you have nothing but a coin toss at best. It is like those people that go to Jewel/Osco and buy lottery tickets.

This is a great way to learn cheaply until you actually have something. And if you don't have anything, unless you are a lunatic, eventually wisdom will set in that the approach you are taking is not working, and hopefully the pain to learn the lesson will have been inexpensive.

90 out of 100 retail traders lose. On the other hand, persistence can pay off as long as it doesn't cost you too much to get there, monetarily, psychologically, the list goes on of the injuries that losing and dedication to this pursuit can have on your life...

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Thanks. Do you recommend that? I have a strategy I'm really confident that will work (backtested many pairs, across a period of time, with data collected each week and every setup). When you say great way to learn cheaply what do you mean? Psychology?
 
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