My journey to profitable trading: NQ price action journal
- Thread starter VV Cehpei
- Start date
September yielded a profit of 16%
Amazingly was only right 33.33% of the time
Profit factor 3.76 to 1
Amazingly was only right 33.33% of the time
Profit factor 3.76 to 1
^ Good to hear you had a good month!
Well I had a roller-coaster of emotions today. I placed 7 trades.
The first trade was a short that worked out for 6 points. I was going to call it a day there, and in hindsight I should have.
The next 3 trades were losses. The second trade was a short as we were coming off a couple of LHs and the rally seemed to have peaked. I didn't like my entry and took a 3 points loss. Feeling a bit frustrated at my poor entry, I still liked the setup so I let price come to me and I shorted again. Well, I could have had 3-4 quick points and I was going to take it, but I didn't. The result was I was stopped out for a 5pt loss.
The 4th trade was another short. The market made a rough double top and I shorted just after a LH set up. The entry wasn't very good on this trade. Like the last trade I could have taken 3-4 points but I decided to hold. And once again the result of that was another 5 points loss.
I was fairly frustrated and discouraged at this point. I was doing some work around the house and was away from my desk for short periods, and as luck would have it I missed a good part of the afternoon rally.
I did catch a bit, however. But I was quite hesitant at first about getting in because I remembered what's happened to me this week so far.
I liked my entry on the 5th trade, and it worked out well.
I tried another long on the 6th trade, and I got a bit anxious because I 'thought' the price was going to drop instead of waiting for it to happen, so I exited the trade for a small loss. Again I was a little frustrated for bailing so soon on that trade for no real reason so I re-entered and got in at the same price. I held for only a few points for this trade. I should have held for more, but being honest I knew just a few points would have me back near b/e for the day, and I just decided to call it a day there.
Today's results:
7 trades: 3 wins, 4 losses
1st: +6.00
2nd: -3.00
3rd: -5.00
4th: -5.00
5th: +6.25
6th: -0.50
7th: +2.25
Net points +1.00
Net P/L -$6.46
1st trade
trades 2, 3, 4
trades 5, 6, 7
Well I had a roller-coaster of emotions today. I placed 7 trades.
The first trade was a short that worked out for 6 points. I was going to call it a day there, and in hindsight I should have.
The next 3 trades were losses. The second trade was a short as we were coming off a couple of LHs and the rally seemed to have peaked. I didn't like my entry and took a 3 points loss. Feeling a bit frustrated at my poor entry, I still liked the setup so I let price come to me and I shorted again. Well, I could have had 3-4 quick points and I was going to take it, but I didn't. The result was I was stopped out for a 5pt loss.
The 4th trade was another short. The market made a rough double top and I shorted just after a LH set up. The entry wasn't very good on this trade. Like the last trade I could have taken 3-4 points but I decided to hold. And once again the result of that was another 5 points loss.
I was fairly frustrated and discouraged at this point. I was doing some work around the house and was away from my desk for short periods, and as luck would have it I missed a good part of the afternoon rally.
I did catch a bit, however. But I was quite hesitant at first about getting in because I remembered what's happened to me this week so far.
I liked my entry on the 5th trade, and it worked out well.
I tried another long on the 6th trade, and I got a bit anxious because I 'thought' the price was going to drop instead of waiting for it to happen, so I exited the trade for a small loss. Again I was a little frustrated for bailing so soon on that trade for no real reason so I re-entered and got in at the same price. I held for only a few points for this trade. I should have held for more, but being honest I knew just a few points would have me back near b/e for the day, and I just decided to call it a day there.
Today's results:
7 trades: 3 wins, 4 losses
1st: +6.00
2nd: -3.00
3rd: -5.00
4th: -5.00
5th: +6.25
6th: -0.50
7th: +2.25
Net points +1.00
Net P/L -$6.46
1st trade
trades 2, 3, 4
trades 5, 6, 7
Hi,
Ok, I get it. You're trying to show us you have a serious discipline problem.
Today you let profitable trades retrace against you and while they were retracing (still profitable)...you decided you were NOT going to adjust your initial stop/loss protection into a profitable trail stop or you just froze like deer in front of headlights...not able to move because of the overwhelming emotions.
The goal is to be profitable and the goal must be that you protect ANY profitable trade especially when you're in the bank by 3 - 4 points on any Emini NQ futures trade. This is a critical issue for you considering you're under capitalized and its a demon for most discretionary traders (traders not using automation).
Note: You need a trigger profit price that tells you to adjust your initial stop/loss protection into a profitable trail stop. For example, whenever you're +2 points in the bank on Emini NQ trades...move your stop/loss to plus one tick profit on the trade if the trail stop gets hit...at least move it to a level that pays for the trade. Thus, don't use breakeven trail stops because in reality...they are losing trades after commissions. Also, you should do some stats work to determine what's a good trigger price for YOU to tell you its time to protect your profits (adjust your stop).
With that said, you knew today (you should have known) that it was FED minutes day. This is an important key market event for us Emini futures traders. It produces BIG price movements at/near the key market event...often with a ton of volatility. This is why we as traders must know our trading instruments prior to the first trade. We must spend a few minutes each day before the open to MAP the events that will have the most important price reactions. This isn't hindsight analysis...this is something that can be done EVERY trading day before the regular session open. Further, after you've mapped your trading day, you need to set an AUDIO alert (loud) on your calendar or scheduler about 30 minutes before the event to tell you to stop doing whatever it is that you're doing when you're away from your computer but still at home. In fact, most typical computers or mobile devices allows you to set alerts months in advance. Thus, spend a few minutes setting your AUDIO alerts for the next dozen or so FED minutes over the next year so that you'll know next time not to be doing personal things at home near 2:00pm est. Heck, nobody has a perfect memory. I know I don't and I rely heavily upon my alerts to tell me to stop doing personal tasks and get back to the computer to look for trading opportunities.
I realized many years ago that if I can set alerts for appointments (e.g. dental appointment)...I can do the same for key market events on my trading day. Further, if you're away from home due to an appointment...that's life...nothing you can do about that if the appointment couldn't be reschedule.
My point is that you said "as luck would have it I missed a good part". Bad luck had nothing to do with it...it was just bad planning on your part to decide to do personal stuff near the 2:00pm est big key market event with no alerts to tell you to stop and get back to the computer. Your trading plan error (not bad luck) resulted in you missing the biggest trading day of 2014 so far.
Reminder: Treat your trading like a business. You need to plan your trading day to stay on top of your schedule. Its a must task if you want any long term longevity in trading while trying to manage trading and your personal life. If we do a poor job at managing our trading as a business...we will not be able to manage those emotions during the trading day that will eventually result in a short lived trading career.
Arguably, the most important variables that determines if we are successful traders has absolutely nothing to do with our trade signal strategies.
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Do you have written rules which tells you when to get in and out of a trade, or do you go off of "a feel"?
I had a much better day today. I placed 3 trades.
I got another helpful PM last night and as a result I started using the ninjatrader ATM stop strategies again. This is how I set it up for today:
When I get 2.5 pts (10 ticks) in the money my stop gets moved to b/e + 1 tick.
When I get to 3.5 pts (14 ticks) in the money, my stop gets moved to +1.5 pts (6 ticks) and moves up
a tick for every tick price moves in my favor. So after 3.5 pts the stop will always be just 2 points behind.
I can use this stop strategy with any of my ATM templates that I've made. Eg, I have templates for 3 stop 5 target, 5 stop 5 target, 5 stop 8 target etc, just to name a few.
The first trade was a short, and I was happy with my entry even though things didn't work in my favor right away.
For the second trade, I marked a 1 2 3 reversal, and I waited for the retrace. I put the numbers on the chart and drew the line, and I waited for price to come back to the line, and hold. I was really happy and quite satisfied watching the whole thing set up. My stop strategy took me out of the trade kind of early, but I managed a small gain.
The third trade I was happy with my entry, as I was shorting a LH. But as it turned out, I shorted a small piece of another 1 2 3 pattern! This time, the stop strategy got me out at a good time.
Overall I was happy with today. I'll have to see how things go with the stop strategy, but one thing I can foresee is that with a stop trailing only 2 points behind, it'll be hard to catch a big move unless price moves quickly.
Today's results:
3 trades, 3 wins
1st: +2.75
2nd: +2.00
3rd: +3.75
Net P/L +$158.66
trades 1 & 2
3rd
I got another helpful PM last night and as a result I started using the ninjatrader ATM stop strategies again. This is how I set it up for today:
When I get 2.5 pts (10 ticks) in the money my stop gets moved to b/e + 1 tick.
When I get to 3.5 pts (14 ticks) in the money, my stop gets moved to +1.5 pts (6 ticks) and moves up
a tick for every tick price moves in my favor. So after 3.5 pts the stop will always be just 2 points behind.
I can use this stop strategy with any of my ATM templates that I've made. Eg, I have templates for 3 stop 5 target, 5 stop 5 target, 5 stop 8 target etc, just to name a few.
The first trade was a short, and I was happy with my entry even though things didn't work in my favor right away.
For the second trade, I marked a 1 2 3 reversal, and I waited for the retrace. I put the numbers on the chart and drew the line, and I waited for price to come back to the line, and hold. I was really happy and quite satisfied watching the whole thing set up. My stop strategy took me out of the trade kind of early, but I managed a small gain.
The third trade I was happy with my entry, as I was shorting a LH. But as it turned out, I shorted a small piece of another 1 2 3 pattern! This time, the stop strategy got me out at a good time.
Overall I was happy with today. I'll have to see how things go with the stop strategy, but one thing I can foresee is that with a stop trailing only 2 points behind, it'll be hard to catch a big move unless price moves quickly.
Today's results:
3 trades, 3 wins
1st: +2.75
2nd: +2.00
3rd: +3.75
Net P/L +$158.66
trades 1 & 2
3rd
Attachments
Way to go, much better entries, your description of trades is better, get better in doing same things in an order helps, car can't run right if something is missing between putting in gas and wheels turning. You will always be playing with targets and when you can one day increase size, the 2nd contract to can play little more loose till you getting 5 points etc...
But don't let it get into your head tomorrow, brand new day and ego sometimes gets in the way.
Congrats !!!
But don't let it get into your head tomorrow, brand new day and ego sometimes gets in the way.
Congrats !!!
Good adjustment in your trail stop management plan and it will prevent letting profitable trades become losing trades.
To catch a big move should not be a priority nor concern. Yet, if its important to you to once in awhile to catch a big move...
1) Understand the price action so that you'll know that you're original analysis that got you into the initial trade is still valid even though your profitable trail stop was hit (pick pocketed). Hopefully with that understanding...you'll be prepared for #2 below.
2) You need to develop a re-entry signal and it'll most likely involve you understanding the market context of that particular price action...the reason that's driving (pushing) the price action directional.
If you can't do the above. Its not a big deal because if you do all the other things ok...those +1, +2, +3 to +6 points will add up quickly into good profits at the end of the month. Trying to catch a big move without understanding what tends to cause those big moves (its not technical reasons)...you'll just end up striking out instead of getting that home run.
What's your definition of a "big move" ? I ask the question because the last trader I've seen here at ET use that reference...he defined it as +75 points or more in the Emini NQ futures.
To catch a big move should not be a priority nor concern. Yet, if its important to you to once in awhile to catch a big move...
1) Understand the price action so that you'll know that you're original analysis that got you into the initial trade is still valid even though your profitable trail stop was hit (pick pocketed). Hopefully with that understanding...you'll be prepared for #2 below.
2) You need to develop a re-entry signal and it'll most likely involve you understanding the market context of that particular price action...the reason that's driving (pushing) the price action directional.
If you can't do the above. Its not a big deal because if you do all the other things ok...those +1, +2, +3 to +6 points will add up quickly into good profits at the end of the month. Trying to catch a big move without understanding what tends to cause those big moves (its not technical reasons)...you'll just end up striking out instead of getting that home run.
What's your definition of a "big move" ? I ask the question because the last trader I've seen here at ET use that reference...he defined it as +75 points or more in the Emini NQ futures.
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Add another top notch trader to the list of people helping you! Wrb trader has been a huge help to me