My introduction

Iron.Maiden

Iron.Maiden

I have spent many months reading, testing and backtesting countless suggestions and techniques that I have acquired from the wealth of information found on this board.

As I browsed, I also encountered countless claims that technical analysis does not work.

Personally, I have not been able to find an edge with the the techniques presented in the public domain or this board.

I would really appreciate if someone can direct me to something that actually works so I can continue the hard work. I feel like Ive wasted my time and accomplished nothing.

No matter what I try or do, I just come up with negative expectancy.

Any kind soul willing to lend a helping hand or am I asking for too much ?

Thank you

A Maiden Fan
 
My honest advice is to be "creative" and do something different from the norm.
If your backtesting RSI for example, try a bunch of different numbers other than the standard 14.

If your backtesting moving averages, don't just use the standard like the 50 and 200 MA.

I have a few techniques I developed over the years that I feel like the "market" is reacting strongly to as well. I still have yet to master my own rules for these techniques since it is not found in any book.

The information in "analyzing the tape" is very small but probably the most important....which I find kind of funny because if every trader on here contributed to analyzing the day's tape and why this was the bottom/top, why it kept going higher/lower, etc it would be super informational.
But a lot of the good traders won't share there methods. Try reading the thread, "biggest reversal in 4 years" and you might pick up on something there.

Keep it simple, TA works, but you have to learn what type of TA works.
 
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It's like asking someone for a cash printing machine. If you find it here (publicly), it's probably worth what you paid for it.

The only thing potentially sustainable and profitable FOR YOU is something you create, tweak and run yourself - something that fits your risk tolerance and personality.

You can find a lot of great advice here about the tools and techniques that will get you to where you want to be. Edges are intensely personal in terms of the risk, nuances, maintenance and behavior. Trust me, you want to create your own. Edges will sometimes fade away or cease to exist over time and the only way to fix it is to have built it yourself.
 
heavenskrow said:
My honest advice is to be "creative" and do something different from the norm.
If your backtesting RSI for example, try a bunch of different numbers other than the standard 14.

If your backtesting moving averages, don't just use the standard like the 50 and 200 MA.

I have a few techniques I developed over the years that I feel like the "market" is reacting strongly to as well. I still have yet to master my own rules for these techniques since it is not found in any book.

The information in "analyzing the tape" is very small but probably the most important....which I find kind of funny because if every trader on here contributed to analyzing the day's tape and why this was the bottom/top, why it kept going higher/lower, etc it would be super informational.
But a lot of the good traders won't share there methods. Try reading the thread, "biggest reversal in 4 years" and you might pick up on something there.

Keep it simple, TA works, but you have to learn what type of TA works.
More...

That is precisely what I am trying to do, learn what works, thing is, nothing has.

By analyzing the tape, do you mean Time and Sales or something different?
 
ktm said:
It's like asking someone for a cash printing machine. If you find it here (publicly), it's probably worth what you paid for it.

The only thing potentially sustainable and profitable FOR YOU is something you create, tweak and run yourself - something that fits your risk tolerance and personality.

You can find a lot of great advice here about the tools and techniques that will get you to where you want to be. Edges are intensely personal in terms of the risk, nuances, maintenance and behavior. Trust me, you want to create your own. Edges will sometimes fade away or cease to exist over time and the only way to fix it is to have built it yourself.
More...

I understand, but where do you begin?

All the threads Ive read, which took time and research, led me to absolutely nowhere.
 
"It's like asking someone for a cash printing machine. If you find it here (publicly), it's probably worth what you paid for it." KTM


That's one of the best responses I've heard, painful but true because we each see things differently than others. I can be in a stock that you think is "overbought" while I think "It still has plenty of room to go", this happened plenty of times with people trading around me. I got my extra $.50 or $2.00 and their day trade turned in to a Overnight-er finally making them money. It could be they were right and I had to dump my stock and short it to join them only to see the stock move fast while my friend continued to think it was "overbought" though the Market's price and volume proved they were wrong.


I received a email from someone who has blown up five times, I don't know where he continually gets his money from. He's got a phD in business finance, a very smart man in a high place with a small cap company but he still has his head in the 1990s Dot.com Mania Clouds. He said he had found a firm that provides him with the "perfect edge"(perfect edge scare's the hell out of me!) he's using Karen the Supertrader's gang to make a fortune his email said. I hope he is winning, I hope he finally got that "edge" he's been seeking since losing his $2 million in 2000.
 
Iron.Maiden said:
I understand, but where do you begin?

All the threads Ive read, which took time and research, led me to absolutely nowhere.
More...

Those threads that have led you nowhere are important - you know what isn't going to work for you. It might take years. Start anywhere and everywhere you have time and interest to do research and experimentation. Put some real money to work and make some mistakes and lose it. I know what I'm telling you sounds ridiculous, but it's all part of the process of getting where you need to be to get your edge. We've all been there.

It's not easy and most people will fail. But...if you are persistent and succeed - the rewards are more than worth it. Patience and persistence.
 
heavenskrow said:
My honest advice is to be "creative" and do something different from the norm.

But a lot of the good traders won't share there methods. Try reading the thread, "biggest reversal in 4 years" and you might pick up on something there.

Keep it simple, TA works, but you have to learn what type of TA works.
More...

Some of the best things are remarkably simple. o_O ...sometimes, it's best to adventure alone...and see things from a new/different perspective.
Alot of trading lessons/techniques/styles etc may seem like it has to be overly complicated to be sexy -- couldn't be further from the truth.

Good luck on your journey of 'enlightenment' -- You'll need it; trading success won't happen overnight.
Don't expect anybody on a forum to tell you the combination of the safe. If they do, then expect to find fool's gold inside.
The Holy Grail may mean different things to different people.

I personally like to think of the market as a woman.: You have to understand her, talk to her, feel her. She's part art, part science.
 
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