My Head is Spinning

I love options, been using them to hedge my positions in commodity markets approx. 25 years, every 3 years I learn an "ah ha" moment that I would think wow this is the holy grail, it might be at the time, but then more experience, trading and back testing, three more years goes by and learn another ah-ha that just either increases good signals or better way to hedge. My long term approach is very counter-trend so the underlying each year since 1992, winning trades is 5-15%, so hedging very needed, but unlike most, I stay in them years of rolling over trying to capture min of 75% of range past nine years.
I mainly scalp Futures with ES, Bund, CL and currencies but 95% is automated, only one system for longer day trading in all these years cause I have strict low losing percentages that have to be maintained. Have 60 minute system and it covers 40 plus commodities and hedged as well. I do automated spreading systems.
Trade stocks but core position was made in 2009 so now dance add on positions and hedged, do good amount of credit spreads based on underlying stock system which makes it directional and time decay.

98% is in retirement accounts of LLC which allows shorting and great deal of freedom of assets. In ten years going to have to start drawing out at 70yo, but in mean time keep building.

All my study time is towards risk management, there are just so many ways to enter, although have developed quite a few of them, but either waiting to catch the ball or throw the ball.

Trading is like at beginning make tons of rules and concentrating on trailing stops which actually worst thing to do, leave it at breakeven plus fees, and when you have excellent reason to move a stop, then do so.

There are very few "secrets" but hedge funds certainly not going to hand out. And some areas I never show or discuss. Holy Grails have formed from being mistakes, trying to do one thing and getting some things totally different.

I still believe the big money is in longer term but constantly dancing options around stock(with dividends)/ETF plays, and Commodity Spreads (Bone has excellent program from what I hear for Commodity Spreads)

But risk study for me in best concentration, just a few percentage points can change share size and decrease total risk, just study instead of reading most books as few are worthwhile.

Nap time.
 
. . . The tools I use are basic stuff, no algo BS and it's day trading, no longer-term. I measure my success on a daily basis and follow my plan.
Nothing fancy, really.
Cheers

Do you mind giving some hints on what tools you use? I have found indicators to be useless, but perhaps I'm overlooking something? Lately, I've been trying to learn pure price action, but it's a tough road.
 
Do you mind giving some hints on what tools you use? I have found indicators to be useless, but perhaps I'm overlooking something? Lately, I've been trying to learn pure price action, but it's a tough road.

You want advice? Okay, here's 15 years worth.

(1) Get away from scalping. This isn't 1999. The reason you're scalping is because you don't have confidence or convictions. I understand. But stop doing it.
(2) Invest in a good backtesting system, and live with it, sleep with it, eat with it. Shameless plug: Nothing easier or better than Investor RT. You'll save thousands of hours. And you do not need intraday data for backtesting. Nice, but not necessary.
(3) Pick one or two instruments that have good intraday ranges. (Hint: It ain't ES. Hint: It ain't FOREX. Hint: It ain't options strategies). You can't make money without range.
(4) Look at daily charts. Look at highs, lows, opens, closes. Today, yesterday, day before. What's happening? Backtest, backtest, then forward test, forward test.
(5) Nobody can tell you what to trade, or specifically how to trade. You can only create your own path.

Good luck.
 
I started out tick-scalping equities, and in looking for a handle, learned all about technical indicators.
Here's what I learned:
1) over half can be beat by a coin flip, so use a coin and get better results.
2) work the look-back parameters of the indicator until you can lean back from the screen, squint your eyes, and see solid correspondence between the underlying and the indicator.
3) the newer the indicator, the less likely it will work.
4) watch out for multicolinearity: having 3-4 indicators that say the same thing IS NOT "confirmation" -- "Confirmation" itself is impossible, so run from ANYONE who uses that term in regards to "T/A."
5) Given 4) above, having a volatility measure (ATR), a momentum indicator (ADX/DM+/DM-), and having a price oscillator (Lane's Stochastic, or the volume-weighted MFI, or both) is a good thing.
So: coin-flip; tailor 'em'; no fads; no copies; look for pop, trend, and turns.

Tick-scalping taught me *plenty*!!!
Here's what I learned:
1) Plan the trade; trade the plan.
2) Entries are easy, plain, and obvious; exits are hard, subtle, and even sublime. (SteveGee mentioned broken-wing butterflies -- sublime!)
3) 1+2 = POSITION MANAGEMENT == Long term, reliable, variance-minimizing returns, yo.

So, how do you develop your own plan?
1) Find your mind: find your mindset: find where (time-wise; vehicle-wise) you are comfortable trading.
2) Paper trade as much as you can, each and every day; learn, observe, absorb everything you can; AS IF YOUR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT. (It does.)
3) Simultaneously: start live trading; start the search for alternate tools (think of SteveGee's progression from scalping to options -- I did the same thing myself -- others have similarly evolved their game in one way or another: THE MARKET IS NOT A STAID DEAL, and what you are good at today, may just *suck* in 2018. Are you ready for 2018?
4) Plan the trade; trade your plan.
5) Position ("risk", "money") management IS EVERYTHING.

...written too quickly, no doubt.
 
SAMPLE Short-Term TRADING PLAN:
With an 1-min ATR(6mSMA)>2ticks
ENTER when 1-min ADX(12mSMA)>25 on side of highest DM±(12mSMA)
EXIT when either ADX or the operative DM turns down for 2 min, or when one DM crosses the other.

Test this yourself. Can you tweak it to work better than 80% or so? Yay! On a 4-6 hour graph, how many trades are generated? How many shorts? How many longs? How do they (each) perform?

SAMPLE Option-Selling TRADING PLAN:
With operative Implied Vol above 11:
"buy" {for a negative price} 1-strike/2-strike broken-wing butterfly, 3 weeks/1month out, at short delta between |0.20| and |0.25|, with a position delta ≈ 0.02 and ~50¢ premium [±10¢].
"sell" {buy-back at whatever price} at 50% potential OR at 1-week DTE OR let it expire OR {I mean, like, hey: it's a broken-wing butterfly, and there are lots of ways to manage it}
PAIN: buy-back at twice the entry, re-write that margin capital at 3 weeks out, half on top, half on bottom. {So, "buy" it at -50¢, "sell" it back at -$1; re-write calls @ 50¢ and puts @ 50¢ -- you'll find the position delta(s) have not changed...)

Okay then:
check it out
make sure it works
rinse/repeat.
 
This site is intriguing. I've spent hours and hours reading threads here. So many different approaches, so many different opinions:

Can't make money scalping.
I make a living scalping.
Member XYZ is a genius.
Member XYZ is an idiot.
Forex is a scam.
Forex is just like any other market.
Great set-ups are the key.
Entries and exits don't matter, it's money management that's the key.

The list goes on. . .

Because they are ALL TRUE. It really depends on the individual how it suits them. For one person, it's the entries that matter. For another, it's the money management. Some think Forex is a scam because he/she got burned. Others think Forex is just like any other market and that's also true. Every single market's got scam and every single market is just like any other market.

I don't expect anyone to give out their trade secrets. I know first hand how difficult it is to develop them, and I wouldn't be inclined to give them away (if I had any), either.

But what I would expect is a blueprint as to how they developed their systems. More often than not what I read here is "It's taken my fifteen years of studying, and several blown accounts to get to where I am today". Well that's great, but it doesn't help.

Well "a blueprint as to how they developed their systems" IS their trade secrets. It's like asking the Colonel the blueprint of how he developed his secret recipe. You think KFC is going to give that to you? LOL Taking fifteen years of study and several blown accounts to get to where they are is also true in many cases. You think people will hand you the "blueprint as to how they developed their system" after they have taken fifteen years studying and have blown several accounts (and probably several marriages too) developing it? Would you?? Seriously??!!

I'm confident I can develop my own system, otherwise why would I keep banging my head against the wall? All that I need are some hints as to the right direction. I'm inclined to scalp, it suits my personality. I have enough trading capital.

You are confident you can develop your own system and you have enough trading capital so WHY aren't you doing it? WHY aren't you trading? You are a trader so TRADE!!! If you haven't developed your trading system, then trade with a paper account or what's called a demo account (ALL brokers offer that) until your trading system is profitable then trade live to develop your execution. Trading is NOT just about learning; it's mainly about DOING. Trading is NOT a game as much as what people think; Trading is very real and you won't learn anything or improve if you don't get hands dirty doing it. Colonel did not develop his KFC recipe by just sitting by a desk, drinking beer and visiting cooking forums, no he developed his KFC recipe by actually going to a kitchen cooking it, tasting it, throwing it away, trying again cooking it and etc. And so should you except you are much better off than the Colonel. He had to waste real chicken hence real money developing his secret recipe and you can develop and test your trading system without wasting a cent.

I'm not even sure what to ask for.

Don't ask, DO!!! Go develop a trading system that you think will be profitable. Then ask your broker for a paper or demo account and start trading your trading system. See where it works and where it doesn't work and adjust, tweek, improve until it's consistently profitable. Everybody is different. Only YOU know what works for you and what doesn't. Once the trading system is consistently profitable in the demo account for a period of time, then trade live! That's it. Not hard.
 
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Well I will offer some advice. Try to read as much as possible but in the end you will need to spend time developing your own method. I think Van Tharpe' s "Supertrader" was the thing that gave me that push to become profitable. I often felt that that book was written specifically for ME. I was a HUGE help to me. Once I realized that I was my own worst enemy causing me to lose i was able to change. Bottom line is you need to do more of what works and less of what does not. I know it sounds vague but MY system won't work for YOU because you did not develop it, I did. YOU need to develop YOUR system. This book helped guide me how to do that.

Trading is like driving a racecar without knowing how to drive. Just saying to get behind the wheel will result in a crash. No 2 drivers drive the car exactly the same bit there are more similarities than differences. Each driver likes certain circuits and style of car setup. Trading is no different. READ AND LEARN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. Then, develop your own style and system.

Good luck,
Eganon
 
From one of your colleagues, a few suggestions that helped me:

Learning everything about options
Using longer time frames (weeks, not days or parts of days)
Tactical asset allocation

There are a few good ideas here: www.cxoadvisory.com. If you like them and learn to use options, you can enhance these systems. Author Ploutos on Seeking Alpha has some good and simple ideas.

Keep reading.
 
Thanks to all who have replied so far - even the sarcastic a$$holes.

Some sound advice in these posts, I think.

The only comment I have is regarding the suggestions related to "Don't ask, DO!!!". I agree with this philosophy 100%. There is absolutely no substitute for going out and trying. In fact, I consider myself somewhat successful in that I have traded live for months at basically break even. And traded for years before that. A lot more than can be said for the great majority who lose money.

So I feel like I'm on the edge of a breakthrough to be profitable, but I'm struggling to get over the hump.

Reason I'm here is to get some suggestions as to how to get there. What's the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? Well I'm trying not to go insane. Looking for an alternate approach. I don't want to keep doing the same thing - it's getting me nowhere.

Thanks again.
 
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