My guess as to why traders fail

[Fireplace]

'Weirdo', maybe if you didn't post your slop in every single thread on this website, I wouldn't have to see it and make fun of you.



I thought you said if you were not banned and your posts not deleted, you would 'oblige' us by not continuing to post the same slop? Guess that was a bunch of 'hot air'.

Quote from glopsod:

Well what cult are you in that you have to follow us into every thread and comment on it?

 

[increasenow]

Quote from BartS:

Discipline is it.

It is a vague word but lack of discipline is responsible for all the biggest issues a trader can face:


-lack of plan.
-lack of followthrough with plan.
-cutting winners before targets are met
-not cutting losers timely
-entering trades in chopzones
-chasing
-not waiting for pullbacks
-shorting bottoms and buying tops
-averaging down

Days I am 100% focused I make money 90% of the time.
Days I try to be cute I take flats or lose.

It's a mental game, and discipline is the only thing there is absolutely no way around.period.

100% agree

 

[clacy]

Quote from talontrading:

Hershey haters: congrats. You killed another thread. Unsubscribing from this one.

WTF are you people doing?

I completely disagree. Jack is delusional. I realized that by about the 2nd post that I read of his, and the nail in the coffin was him talking about captuing 3x the daily range on a consistent basis.

He knows damn well that as soon as he interjects his nonsense into a thread, that the thread will turn into a war zone, yet his creepy ego forces him to get involved with every newbie thread.

 

[NoRhino]

People fail just because trading is zero sum or often is.

 

[roseannefox]

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[yepso]

Quote from neutrino:

Traders fail because the market is perfectly competitive, therefore unpredictable and random, and they are trading noise. It's the same as playing roulette - no amount of discipline, planning, strategy, money management or emotional control can help you make money in the long run.

Not true buddy, there is an amount of dependency in price. Market structure delves into statistics, probability distribution, and the various models. You might want to gather new info and re-think your stance on the out-dated efficient-market hypothesis.

Efficient markets would mean there's no dependency from trade to trade, but as traders we know that's not true. How about unpredictable, as traders maybe a pecentage of us can agree on this that from trade to trade price is unpredictable. But unpredictable doesn't equal random. Random has qualities of dependency and it's these qualities that enable traders to assess risk and establish positions based on our perception of probability distribution.

Basically do we believe there's dependency in the market and will dependency continue. In this environment we can trade in the direction of the bias as long as the dependency continues, perhaps all day. Regardless of pattern.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from Coolio:

I'm one of the newbs with the $5K account and it is easy to see how I could have already blown out my account (but have not)

#1 Low capital. I really need about $7500, I don't so I just stick with /6B, /ZN, /QM, /YG. I trade to have like $80.00 winners and $25.00 losers. If I mess with /ES and /CL ... my loser will be >2%of my account and that is bad news. There's a bias, even in guys with $5K, in that they think in terms of being up thousands when they should be focused on being "up" hundreds and feeling great about it.

#2 Psychology. This comes under many banners but one needs to psychologically prepared for losing 50% of the time. I know I am not ready yet but I am working on this. One needs to trade so small that a loser is almost nothing to you. ($35-$70 for the $5K guy).

#3 Discipline. Trading your strategy, only trading your strategy and even as a FUTURES trader, sitting on hands some days. I'm pretty good at this. There are many, many great strategies, any idiot can backtest a few weeks of data and find one. Even a modest strategy when discipline is applied to it can yield profits.

#4 Focused effort: Just trading during times of high volatility. Focusing efforts on the right market at the right time. I'm good at this. Fixing mistakes, not repeating them, acknowledging your winners and seeking to repeat them.

So I have 2 of the 4 down ... which explains my results (slightly down including commissions)... When I get 4 of 4 I know it is fair to expect that my $5K account could be $6 or $7 within a year .... if I keep that money in there .. and just let 'her grown and only add 1 more contract per $5000 or so .. the sky is the limit.

There is no escaping the 4 items and there could certainly be more.

Only 10% of all people have the discipline to do this. Fear and Greed are too powerful for most people.

$5000 is just too little... discipline won't cut it if you just have too little capital unfortunately...

capital: 90% importance
trading plan: 9% importance
psychology: 1% importance

discipline is in the last 1% of importance.

 

[duhmentor]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

$5000 is just too little... discipline won't cut it if you just have too little capital unfortunately...

capital: 90% importance
trading plan: 9% importance
psychology: 1% importance

discipline is in the last 1% of importance.

I’ll argue this point.

I’d say the plan has 90% importance and I’m willing to bet that very few failed traders had any kind of a plan.

I’d challenge any failed trader who had a plan and followed it to put it on the forum. It didn’t work so you don’t have to worry about anyone stealing it.

Let's see your plan failed_trad3r

 

[ammo]

Overtrading (commish your way to zero) and fear of trading are the first 2 biggest newb hurdles,the 2nd pair might be adulation over winners, genius seems to run rampant in this business, and guilt over losers, how many threads about blowing out on here,most newer traders and a lot of long time struggling traders never get past this pair,so i would say the ego is the biggest reason most dont succeed at this game, ........a little bit of knowledge and a big ego will allow you to ride a bad trade into a bust out trade,..............your then too guilty to come back or so guilty ,you revenge trade to bust again........ 5k would be enough if you only made 1 trade per week,one where you thought your odds were very high, a trade like that pops up at least once a month , sometimes once a week,it would take a lot of patience and discipline to spend that many hours waiting for a setup,....for example ...... the chart below is a longterm and when u try to pinpoint the value of that line on such a long timeframe the number should be considered an area

 

[cap'ncod]

For simplicity I would say there are two types of trade: the clear and the confused. And the way these are objectively perceived and identified is the technical skill element of trading. I see myself as an (imperfect) human machine that tries to weight up the information as it prints on my chart and make decisions based on a set of criteria that I've given myself. In time those trades that I passed on because they were confused may become actionable because of greater experience and deeper perception. So, as a trader of only a few years I only take the very clear signal trades. I may perceive an area for entry or I may have a hunch when a reversal is going to start but unless I get confirmation through a perception of market conviction then I'll pass, as a single rash decision can erode profits easily. A clear trade is clearly good (even if it's bad) but a confused trade is always bad and has to be avoided at all costs. Of course most of the time the lunch time is lacking any clarity or conviction. Sometimes I'll miss a good opportunity but if it is a strong sustained move there will usually be a clear second entry. I feel one of the only edges I have over the institutions is my patience. New guys, I think, feel they have to be trading all day to make money and I was no exception, but the reality is that the less you trade the less you'll lose and catching a single sustained move is a very good day if repeated consistently. For me the market does have a rational logic that can be perceived even though it is in a state of confusion much of the time due to continuous unresolved tensions. At points there is a resolution and conviction, the fog lifts and you have to be ready to go with the flow. Sitting, watching, reading the sentiment and doing nothing for hours is beyond some people but crucial, I believe, for success.